[2aProtectsTheRest]

"According to Johns Hopkins, 70%-90% of the population (230-300 million Americans) needs to develop protective antibodies to COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity."

That's really disheartening. I was hoping herd immunity would be achievable closer to 60 or 65%.

[Steve_Seattle]

"That's really disheartening. I was hoping herd immunity would be achievable closer to 60 or 65%."

I suspect that this is another case of moving the goal posts. Suddenly herd immunity is presented as a virtually impossible goal, whereas it has been a standard doctrine of immunology for a long time.

Yesterday somebody posted a well-documented article suggesting that Sweden - which avoided the massive lockdowns of many other countries - may already be nearing herd immunity. If you look at the Worldometer charts for Sweden, in recent weeks it has seen a dramatic decline in both new cases and new deaths.

[henkster]

The numbers in the article are way off. Herd immunity is in fact closer to 65%. And the disease does not have a 4% mortality rate. If you are under 60 and don’t have comorbidities, the number is much closer to the flu’s .01%, if not less.

Just more MSM fear porn.

[lastchance]

The point is that you personally don’t need 70%-90% of the population to be immune in order to be less likely to catch the virus. You just need the majority of the people you come in contact with to be immune. Herd immunity is built slowly in clusters.

[tinyowl]

Could someone post the article from yesterday arguing that herd immunity is achieved at about 17% due to 80%-ish of the population already being by default immune primarily due to lifelong exposure to various other coronaviruses? (that's not a scientific paraphrase of the article, but hopefully close enough for someone who read it to remember where to find it.)

Thanks!

[silverleaf]

Typical ABC news b.s.

These epidemiologists ( various links in article) show why HIT ( herd immunity threshold) may be reached with about 20% infected, since it is looking like 70% of us of more are already naturally immune based on exposure to previous coronaviruses. Or for as yet undetermined readons. However, it does explain the models.

That is why NYC and other large cities are not showing an epidemic of serious illness. They peaked. The huge population now being tested shows exposure...not illness. And largely among the young whose risk of severity was always lower. That cycle that NY is past, is now repeating in other states. But with better treatment, help from the natural environment of summer, better treatments....and smarter Governors.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/