Posted on 07/14/2020 2:14:45 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 118
As of 07/13/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information2
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities Remained Heavier...
We are still seeing higher numbers of Fatalities compared to the higher numbers
the week before. Yesterday's number was 12.86% larger than the number on the
same day the week before. While that 12.86% wasn't a huge rise, it was on a
number one week ago, that was considerably larger than the one two weeks ago.
I'd like to say the numbers are poised to start dropping back down, but I'm not
seeing any evidence of that. If the numbers jump from Monday to Tuesday like they
did last week, we'll have over 1,000 Fatalities today.
Globally Declared Cases Moved Above 13 Million on Sunday.
I should have mentioned this in yesterday's report. It was a milestone in one
of the categories we track here. Global cases moved above the 13 million case
mark. Today the number had already grown to 13.269 just one day later. Ouch!
What brings this number back down to Earth is the remaining Active Cases, which
resides at 4,984,245 now.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
New Cases rose back up yesterday. You can check out the neighborhood we've been
residing in recently. These are very high numbers for the U. S.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active cases continue to climb, and more importantly the level of serious/critical
cases has been moving back up.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
You can see how these percentages dipped and then started to grow again. The
crucial aspect of this is the testing. Higher testing, higher New Cases
discovered, and our slice of the global pie going up...
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.
Take note of the testing figure for yesterday. That's a massive number of tests.
It's one of the highest testing days yet.
As for the Postive Percentage, it's now residing in the 8.5% neighborhood.
We were up in the 9.5% range of positive testing a while back. Now we're
down to 8.5%. The recent trend has been down, but today it rose a fraction of
a percent.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Cases and Resolved Cases are closing. Some time around five days from
now we'll probably see them intersect. Seems like they did their best to avoid it.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Yesterday was another very high day globally.
Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
For your review...
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric looked a bit better yesterday.
It's pretty clear the New Case declearations are a lot heavier than they wre a
few weeks back. Those were heavier than weeks before that. Still,... the
important thing to watch is the level of Fatalities.
These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.
. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.
The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.
Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
As the number of daily Fatalities grow, the dismissing of those high levels of
New Cases loses favor. I wouldn't mind 100k New Cases per day, if the Fatality
rate was low. If the fatalities move up into the thousands per day level
it's going to be a problem.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.006% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
I was surprsed to see the upward movement robust enough to carry us over the
62.00% level of Resolved Cases globally. That's where we want to be, growing
higher each day. The last few days we've lost a little ground here. We did that
before and recovered. Stay tuned...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
For your review...
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
U. S. Fatalities continue to remain in sub-1,000 territory, but if the numbers
increase like they did last week on Tuesday, we may cleanly break 1,000 for the
fist time in over a month.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
In the lasts 38 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 38 days.
Sadly, we're seeing growth here. It looks as if the Fatalities are about to
start tracking noticably higher along with the New Case declarations. Today
may be the day we return to 1,000 plus Fatalities per day.
Folks, I do not think we should extend or return to "shelter in place." I think
we're kidding ourselves if we think the government won't push for it if the
Fatalities continue to rise. That's why I mention the level of Fatalities.
New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
If you'll note, we just passed the half a percentage point of our populace's
infection rate.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Look at that massive margine of increased New Cases over the same day in prior
weeks. Not good...
We happen to be the primary reason for that too. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
We came in at 23rd again on the Testing per million scale yesterday. Running over
760 thousand tests didn't hurt this metric any.
Progress...
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations214,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Thanks to the folks who had some nice things to say about
the Update on yesterday’s thread. I didn’t mean to inspire
that, but I did appreciate it.
Every once in a while we have someone pop off, and at times
I address it.
We have more folks reviewing this thread than it wold seem.
I see the volume of data that is accessed each day.
I’m satisfied with the level of views. I’m glad some folks
are finding value in the Update
Take care...
I am looking at Sweden’s numbers in detail and it is interesting to see that daily new cases peaked in about mid to late June, but have been on a falling or leveling off trend since then. And deaths were at a peak in early to mid April, but have been leveling or falling off since then. This is the country that did not impose tight restrictions like many others in Europe and North America did.
I think I was one of them and you truly deserve it. So much work that must be involved!
Their Deaths Per Million, is worse than ours, but their Cases Per Million are lower. Our massive
testing may be solely responsible for that. I didn't check out their testing before making that
comment though. That could potentially skew things.
Thanks. I saw yours and other people’s nice comments.
I did appreciate them.
I live in a German city of 285k.
As of this week, they are up to 500 total infections since day 1 in April when this all started, with 96-percent of the infected either cured or dead. Total dead at 22 out of the 285k.
So if you dig through the data that is published in the city...something like 18 of the 22 dead are either over the age of 70, or have secondary conditions (diabetes, COPD, etc).
The peak, for the city was the last week of May. You walk around and masks are worn inside of stores or buildings. Lot less riders on the bus or rail system. People keep social distancing. Pubs and restaurants are open. Schools did re-open, with a lot of extra rules in place.
I would suggest that about one-third of all Germans have lost patience with the bans or rules. If they try to revert to them in the fall, it’ll be a big mess.
What this Covid propaganda proves is that humans are TOO STUPID to expect our planet to be able to continue hosting our collective existence
This PLANNEDdemic is what you call”Medical Tyranny” - the citizen’s of America have been overwhelmed by the disease of PROPAGANDA ADDICTION
This is a serious mental disease that will eventually lead to Fascist Dictatorship
We are being LIED TO!!!!!!
Here’s your demographic data for the US in a simple chart (scroll down a page): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
The chart is interactive.
I’m 66 and understand that the reason SS started with a retirement age of 65 is because back in the day, most people didn’t live past that. So it was to help those that had the “misfortune” of living “too” long.
It would be interesting to remove all deaths from day one that were over the age of 65 and see just how deadly this thing is.
Fact is, this thing is over as a serious killer. It really IS just the flu and, I suspect, even less deadly. Yet here we are, locked down and democrat governors INCREASING draconian measures.
What’s interesting is the numbers for Hong Kong - 1,570 cases & 8 deaths - I wonder if that has to do with this not being HK’s first rodeo with SARS-type outbreaks and maskwearing/other measures being more common there by routine.
The death rate is key and both the 7 day and daily graphs show a flat to slightly decreasing rate - in contrast to the increased reported infections.
1. Infection numbers are skewed too high.
2. The nature of the virus has morphed.
Enough time has passed to see the results of #1 in the death rates, but the numbers just don’t show strong correlation.
I would suggest that about one-third of all Germans have lost patience with the bans or rules. If they try to revert to them in the fall, it’ll be a big mess.
I'm curious: Schools aside, is the present mitigation behavior you describe in your city essentially all "recommended" but voluntary?
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380
Jul 7 = 333
Jul 8 = 409
Jul 9 = 435
Jul 10 = 421
Jul 11 = 248
Jul 12 = 227
Jul 13 = 383
We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over three weeks.
We may be seeing an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients.
You can certainly add me to your Ping List.
You are doing an amazing job. I doubt seriously if there is a better COVID 19 data source anywhere in the universe that is more complete and up to date than yours.
It is so good that you should be able to sell it. Maybe someone here on FR knows how you would go about doing so.
And a word of caution: Limiting your sleep to one hour per night just to keep this going is not healthy. Way too much work to get done in less than 23 hours. I don’t know how you do it.
Dr Richard Barlett treating virus with Budesonide is a corticosteroid or steroid. 100% success, none of his patients have died! All recover quickly.
Inhaled steroids. A CURE! (using a nebulizer machine)
Must watch video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpCCgY431RQ&feature=youtu.be
The school rules...mandatory. Washing of hands, sanitizer, desks arranged 1.5 meters apart, masks worn as they enter the building, any illness apparent then you leave and be checked by a doctor.
The masks mandated in buses and trains. You don’t ride unless you wear the masks. Buying tickets via the driver is now impossible, so you buy via a machine, or buy via on-line services.
Masks mandated in stores. At very beginning...stores hired up temp-bouncer-type guys to kinda enforce this, but that was dumped after a month.
If you walk into a pub or restaurant, then the mask comes off at the table. The waiter will serve you with his mask on.
Barbershops function only with reservations...no waiting allowed. You and the barber wear a mask.
But you can tell, the ban business and lack of summer activities have caught up. Vacationing in Spain...various reports in the past week now, Germans throwing reckless behavior around (no masks, no social distances, etc). Spaniards getting nervous. Big fear of a wave coming as these people return to Germany after their two weeks of vacation. You can maintain this dedication for a certain period of time, then you lose patience.
thanks for all this...you must be seeing numbers in whatever sleep you get.
number of tests still seems like a bogus marker to me.
how many people got tested multiple times?
a better but useless number is how many people got tested? again, how many got tested multiple times?
deaths are a declining number - even with the inconsistent attribution to COVID
it took 13 days for the number of deaths to go from 120k to 130k.
it’s now taken 14 days for the number of deaths to go from 130k to 138k.
Probably 4-5 more days to get to 140k deaths.
thanks again for the math..
Mark
You can maintain this dedication for a certain period of time, then you lose patience.
It's not exactly a strength of most of modern day Western Civilization. We are just not brought up with it. :-(
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