Posted on 08/14/2020 7:22:24 PM PDT by 11th_VA
President Donald Trump was able to flip six states in the 2016 election that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 — Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. Oddsmakers see four of the six flipping back to blue in 2020 — enough to flip the Electoral College.
Odds to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes have moved from -182 for Democrat Joe Biden to -200. Trump and the Republicans slumped in the state to +140 from +130. Additionally, Biden improved in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where he is an all-time best -335 now, as well as in Maine, which saw an uptick to -715 from -560.
Biden is already favored to flip North Carolina to the Democrats. Barack Obama won that state in 2008 but lost in 2012. Democrats are just +110 underdogs in Ohio, +110 in Iowa and Georgia and +160 in Texas. To put that in perspective, oddsmakers give Biden a better shot at winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
There was some good news for Trump, though. In Michigan where he was a +325 underdog, the President is now +275. Biden dropped from -560 to -455 in the state. Trump also moved to +325 in Minnesota, where he was +350, as Biden fell to -560 from his high of -715. And in Ohio, Trump ticked up from -148 to -155 to keep the Buckeye State in his column.
Of the 16 key swing states for 2020, Democrats and Biden are favored in 12 of them. Trump is favored in four, and he’ll need to flip at least three or four more in order to win a second term. If the odds hold in terms of actual vote, Biden would win the Electoral College 334-204.
Even if Trump were to win the four states in which he is less of an underdog than the others (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and New Hampshire), he would fall short.
But if he flips VA (2A vote) with those four states above, he wins
Yeh I remember a certain bookie site paying out bets on Hillary before the 2016 election didn’t go to well
Biden will not win Florida
Probably, but he could end up stealing it and a few other states. Same for a handful of House seats. California 2018 is the roadmap in 2020.
1 Texas 725,368
2 Florida 432,581
3 California 376,666
4 Virginia 356,963
5 Pennsylvania 271,427
6 Georgia 225,993
7 Arizona 204,817
8 North Carolina 181,209
9 Ohio 175,819
10 Alabama 168,265
Virginia is gone.
Trump won back what Romney lost
My analysis of the polls has President Trump with a probability-weighted average of about 188 Electoral Votes right now, which I don't believe for a second.
-PJ
The strategically placed Libertarian lost VA
Biden is starting to capture the Alzheimer’s vote.
Never trust bookies and gamblers.
They have no idea about politics.
Have you been paying attention to VA this year ? In 2019, the RATs secured a 'narrow' victory; that momentum is gone.
The 2A community struck back and passed, 2A Sanctuary laws in 95% of counties in VA.
And in sleepy off year special elections this year, the 2A 'good ol boys' came out and flipped local official seats that the RATs have held for decades.
The silent 2A community is awake, and can't wait for Nov 3rd.
So you’re expecting CA to go to Trump?
With 60% to 70% of Trump supporters refusing to tell pollsters who they support, what the f-— good are any of these bullcrap “polls?”
It’s just a way for the media aholes to upset and depress conservatives, yet so many freepers fall for this BS EVERY election cycle.
By the way, Florida has more registered Republicans in 2020 than it did in 2016.
Were these guys around 4 years ago? How’d they do?
Trump may win Nevada, but will lose Virginia and Colorado again.
I don't know, all those people moving there from New York. Idiots don't understand why they felt the need to leave New York.
Is there a digit missing from those numbers? Here is Arizona we have at least twenty guns each. :)
I don’t think NoVA (plus Richmond) can be overcome. Sucks, but I think it’s just gone for the foreseeable future.
I don’t see him winning FL but what do I know? I’ve seen maybe 2 Biden signs and lots of Trump signs.
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