Posted on 09/25/2020 7:39:56 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 191
As of 09/24/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities rose by 143 cases from the previous day, to come in at 945
yesterday. That was a 9.25% increase from the same day the week before.
New Cases rose by 4,701 from the day before, to come in at 45,963
yesterday. That was a 0.72% decrease from the same day the week before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities fell by 720 cases from the previous day, to come in at 5,770
yesterday. That was a 5.50% increase from the same day last week.
New Cases rose by just 30 cases from the day before, to come in at 316,814 yesterday.
This was a 0.32% increase from the same day the week before. It was also a
record day for a Thurssday.
The last 14 of 15 days have been a record for the day, and or a new record high
since COVID-19 came to the United States.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations rose yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It's also informitive to look up the data columns to see how the
situation has changed recently.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active cases rose by a small margine yesterday.
Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
Yesterday we looked better in both these categories.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Active cases rose yesterday. I'm not sure if anyone else sees this the way
I do, which translates to the possibility I am wrong on this, but I see the
flattening during the first two weeks of June, to have been the end of the
first wave. It looks like the end of the second wave right now.
The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.
Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing rose even more yesterday. Those percentages a mixed bag.
That single-day figure is low, and it's been there two days now, below 5.000%.
Things still haven't smoothed out here yet, but things do seem headed for
smoother sailing ahead.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.
The active case line has flattened out.
I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.
Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.
You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Texas and Flroida took the top spots yesterday for the second day in a row.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case Declartations crept up by 30 cases yesterday..
The resolved percent came in at 76.690%.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose by a moderate number of cases yesterday. Serious/Critical
case rose up a little.
The Serious/Critical cases rose up close to 950 cases.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric slid down a little, nice for one of the heavier days of the week.
Numbers for the Global Scene grew by just 30 cases yesterday.
The blue line is creaping up slowly but surely. Numbers are strong now.
a
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
<
The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)
France - Ooo
To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.
I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.
Frace is suffering the same fate.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.
The Netherlands is just going ballistic.
We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
India led out in both metrics again yesterday.
If things don't change with regard to India's case momentum, it will replace
the United States as the nation with the most Declared Cases roughly six
weeks out.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
This chart revealed more of a flattening, but no more. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.
In the the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We rose to 76.750% Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. The rise in this
column has been very reliable over recent days, weeks, and months.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose up by a larger amount yesterday, and Serious/Critical cases grew
by close to 950 cases.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Numbers of Fatalities in each region fell yesterday, and they seemed pretty even
in their move overall.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
Our Fatalities fell moderately yesterday. It wasn't a huge decline, but it
wasn't small either.
Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
We held our own yesterday, but the onther areas didn't fair as well.
and Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.
Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Out of the last 15 days, 14 of them have been a record for the day, and some
have been all-time records. Yesterday was a new record for a Thursday.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
We slipped to 20th place here yesterday.
Over the last couple of months we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place.
Now we're at 20th place for two days in a row.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
I can’t make heads or tails of these graphs. Give it to me straight , doc. How long have I got to live?
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for September 25.
As promised....today’s a doozy.
Stats compiled by the PA Department of Health as recorded at midnight September 24/25:
LTC deaths = 5419 (increase of 22)
Total deaths = 8081 (increase of 2)
LTC deaths as percentage of total = 67.0 %, up by 0.02.
For the second consecutive day (can’t say “straight day” with anything pertaining to the PA-DOH) the subset of LTC deaths has been higher than the set of total deaths.
What this does, of course, is increase the percentage of LTC deaths.
None of this passes a smell test. Why would anyone want to cook the books in such as way as to make that abysmal percentage become worse?
Lol. Better make that trip to Miami soon! Your days are counted.
There’s a huge percentage of reported ChiCom flu deaths among people with comorbidities. They are counting these as COVID-19 deaths when there are multiple other reasons for the deaths. Their reporting of statistics are delayed and aggregated to play politics. Don’t ever trust anything a tranny says.
Having comorbidities doesn’t make the death any less the result of the underlying cause. That’s what the underlying cause of death is: the disease or injury which initiates the chain of events leading directly to death.
By this reasoning, nobody dies of cancer either. They die of multiple organ failure. Sure, it was the cancer that led to the multiple organ failure, but cancer didn’t kill them, so don’t mark any deaths as cancer deaths.
And look! Suddenly nobody’s dying of cancer anymore!
Around 250,000 people have died this year above and beyond what’s expected when you look at historical patterns - week by week - and stretch those patterns out to account for normal variation. In fact, every single week since March, the US has seen significant excess mortality. You can try and shuffle words around to pretend that the ongoing pandemic that every hospital, health department, and health expert on Earth is saying is responsible actually isn’t, but you’re going to have to explain why people around the world are dying, the doctors providing direct treatment of those patients are saying it’s because of COVID-19, and somehow they’re all wrong and you’re right. And you’re going to need to come up with something else that explains those 250,000 excess deaths in the US so far this year.
Lots of car/motorcycle crashes, gunshots, stabbings, drownings and cancer deaths in those numbers.
If a person who was killed had the Wuhan Virus in them, did they really die of the Wuhan?
No.
A book that I've think has had good models on this mentions in the the intro to the chapter that the buebonic plauge lasted 7 years in the 1300 took out about 20% of the population.
We live in a 24 hour news world dealing with a very patient phenomena - we are lucky if this is the end of the second wave.
Cut your finger nails, don't pick your nose or touch your face, wash your hands because we are dealing with this for several more years with no vaccine.
Amen to all of that.
Thank you D.O.
Where did you get this statistic that 250,000 more people have died this year than what’s expected? Thanks.
I apologize if I missed it, but where can I find these PA LTC C19 deaths, other than your post? I want to educate some numbskulls.
Scroll down to the news stories.
The press releases are generally issued at 12 Noon based on data ending 12 hours earlier at midnight.
They have skipped issuing a new release on the past two Sundays.
The AIDS vaccine will be developed first.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
You have to play with the various charts and options to tease out specific data, but they do provide great breakdowns of the when, where, and how of the excess deaths.
Keep in mind for any weekly breakdowns the notes below the charts stating that only about 60% of reporting jurisdictions report their data to the CDC within 10 days. The rest take weeks or longer. That means data from the past ~3-4 weeks is incomplete (which is why there’s a sharp drop-off). That data gets updated as those lagging jurisdictions finally report up the food chain to the CDC.
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