Posted on 11/30/2021 8:01:30 AM PST by Red Badger
Study in Science of more than 780,000 Veterans is the first to compare waning protection rates across all three vaccine types available to most Americans and to directly report death rates after breakthrough infection.
A new study in the leading journal Science reviewed COVID-19 breakthrough infections among 780,225 Veterans, finding that vaccine protection declined from 87.9% to 48.1% during the 2021 Delta surge in the U.S. The researchers from PHI, the Veterans Affairs Medical Center and the University of Texas Health Science Center found a dramatic decline in effectiveness for the Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) vaccine, from 86.4% in March to 13%.1 in September. They also found that vaccination of any type was protective against death among infected individuals.
As COVID-19 breakthrough infections continue to emerge in some vaccine recipients and health authorities are developing policies around booster vaccinations, national data on COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections is inadequate but urgently needed. Now a study from the Public Health Institute, the Veterans Affairs Medical Center and the University of Texas Health Science Center published today in the journal Science analyzed COVID infection by vaccination status among 780,225 Veterans.
Researchers found that protection against any COVID-19 infection declined for all vaccine types, with overall vaccine protection declining from 87.9% in February to 48.1% by October 2021.
*The decline was greatest for the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccine, with protection against infection declining from 86.4% in March to 13%.1 in September
*Declines for PfizerBioNTech were from 86.9% to 43.3%
*Declines for Moderna were 89.2% to 58%.
Credit: Public Health Institute
While most previous studies have focused on the PfizerBioNTech or Moderna vaccines, the Science study is the first to compare protection declines across the three main vaccine types, and the first to show the comparably dramatic decline in effectiveness for the Janssen vaccine. Declines were assessed over the period February 1, 2021 to October 1, 2021, reflecting the emergence and dominance of the Delta variant in the U.S. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection.
Importantly, vaccination of any type was protective against death among individuals who did become infected. The relative benefit of vaccination for protection against death was greater for persons under 65 but was also very strong for persons over 65.
The study showed that the risk of death from COVID infection was highest in unvaccinated Veterans, regardless of age and comorbidities. While some breakthrough infections resulted in death, vaccination remained protective against death in those who became infected during the Delta surge.
For those under 65 years old, vaccines overall were 81.7% effective against death.
*Protection against death was greatest for the Pfizer vaccine, at 84.3%.
*Moderna was the next most effective, at 81.5%.
*Jansen was 73% effective.
For those 65 and over, overall vaccine effectiveness against death was 71.6%.
*Moderna was 75.5% effective.
*Pfizer was 70.1% effective.
*Jansen was 52.2% effective.
“Our study gives researchers, policymakers, and others a strong basis for comparing the long-term effectiveness of COVID vaccines, and a lens for making informed decisions around primary vaccination, booster shots, and other multiple layers of protection, including masking mandates, social distancing, testing and other public health interventions to reduce chance of spread,” said Dr. Barbara Cohn of PHI, the lead author of the study. “For example, the CDC recommendation for boosters for all Janssen recipients over 18 is supported by our results. And, given the declines in vaccine protection and the dominance of the more infective Delta variant, we urge swift action to promote primary vaccination, boosters and to also encourage masking, social distancing and other layers of protection against infection. This is supported by our finding that breakthrough infections are not benign, but also by the strong evidence that vaccination still protects against death even for persons with breakthrough infections, compared to persons who become infected and are not vaccinated.”
The FDA authorized Pfizer boosters for some groups in September and Moderna and Janssen boosters in October, and the CDC has made similar recommendations, including supporting a “mix and match” approach that allows people to choose any of the three vaccine boosters regardless of which they were given initially.
Reference: “SARS-CoV-2 vaccine protection and deaths among US veterans during 2021” by Barbara A. Cohn, Piera M. Cirillo, Caitlin C. Murphy, Nickilou Y. Krigbaum and Arthur W. Wallace, 4 November 2021, Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.abm0620
Hal Holbrook's "Mark Twain Tonight" featured this story (abbreviated and paraphrased):
"I was taken ill once, and sought the advice of a doctor. He told me to drink a quart of whisky a day until the illness passed. I thought that was good advice, but nevertheless felt it prudent to seek a second opinion. Well, that doctor prescribed the same thing. That made half a gallon. I'd been drunk before, but that was a masterpiece!"
Natural immunity studies are nearly impossible. A vax injection is precisely known as to exact day of the event. A naturally acquired infection and any immunity derived from it will not be known as to day of the event.
The best that can be done is the date of the PCR test that indicated an actual infection. Quite a few of these “natural immunity” studies are people who never got a specific PCR test but felt ill and “I just knew I got the virus” sort of people.
With all these uncertainties, you will never get a study of decent quality. Further, the general idea is to NOT get the infection and risk death — just to declare you have natural immunity.
VA in my area gave J&J in March. The gave it locally and we didn’t have to drive the 50 miles to the VA Hospital. According to this post my Vax status has been near zero for the last 7 months. The VA has said little about boosters and are not offering any locally.
Hence the recommendations for a booster at six months.
Which will become a recommendation for a booster every six months in perpetuity.
“Washing hands probably helps stop colds, flu, Covid more than anything.“
You are correct. The single greatest invention hummanity ever produced, in stopping viruses, was the invention of soap. Number two is not even close.
Impossible to know that.
After the six month dose of hepatitis B vaccine, do people have boosters AT ALL, never mind every six months?
Why should this be different?
Ditto all, except I’m in Texas. No mask, no issues. And I won’t get a booster.
Except for flu vaccines, which have to be tailored for the "best guess" of which flu strains and mutations that will occur in the coming flu season.
That is completely incorrect. Small pox vaccines have also not been given out since 1972 after eradication.
Why should this be different?
The Hep B vaccine isn't an mRNA vaccine. This class of vaccines are uncharted waters as far as prolonged efficacy is concerned.
Clearly two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or one shot of the J&J Jab isn't enough to impart lifelong immunity. The immunity drops off after six months. Why would you not expect a third (or second J&J) jab to perform any differently?
Oh, that’s dealing with the dark arts. Such knowledge is forbidden.
I would think some data could be gathered from positive PCR tests as the starting point.
This is a good study, but... I hate their conclusions. Scientist should deliver science, NOT try to dictate public policy. There is NOTHING in this paper that justifies vaccinating children. Why would they even mention that?
My folks got smallpox vaccinations when they were toddlers. First time they went overseas (as teens), they had to get booster shots for smallpox. Both had side effects, too; relatively minor inflammation. Mom can still be provoked to rant about it.
Given the CEO of Moderna has said his scientists have determined the current vaccines will not stop Omicron, there is likely no hurry for getting a booster.
This guy had balls. The happy talk people are more interested in the stock market than keeping people alive. This guy just flat out said there must be a new vaccine because Omicron will overwhelm the current ones. “A degree of protection” can be 2%, not 90%.
Another useless study from limited data. If the reported data is not reliable because it is subjective, or because a certain portion is not being reported, you cannot usefully analyze the data presented. GIGO.
Protection against death for Pfizer is around 85%... isn’t the survivability of COVID itself around 98 - 99% depending on age?
Somebody tell me what I’m missing here.
This study doesn’t just measure the fall-off in effectiveness. It measures effectiveness against the intervening factor, emergence of the more-contagious delta variant. Moderna either had good luck or a superior chemical strategy, but Moderna outperformed the other vaccines hands down.
So when you see studies showing poor vaccine performance, especially in places which didn’t vaccinate with Moderna, the numbers are not, NOT reflective of what is happening in the United States, or in places which started using Moderna.
My family and I read the material from the start and predicted this outcome. We chose Moderna, and are glad we did. We have not contracted COVID-19. All bets are off for the nu omicron variant.
Well, except for polio which requires 4 shots, and tetanus which requires a booster every 10 years, and typhoid which lasts 2-5 years, etc., etc., etc.
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