Posted on 03/04/2022 1:06:26 PM PST by Meet the New Boss
The Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted from two immense strategic blunders, Robert Service says....
It rankles Mr. Putin that Ukraine would seek to join the West—and not merely because he wants it as a satellite state. He also “can’t afford to allow life to a neighboring Slav state which has even a smidgen of democratic development. His Russian people might get dangerous ideas.”...
Mr. Service says the key to understanding Mr. Putin is his adamant belief that Russia is “a great global power” and that the Russian sphere of influence should extend to as many of the former Soviet republics as possible: “There’s no state that’s more important to him than Ukraine.”...
In Mr. Putin’s view, according to Mr. Service, Lenin committed a primordial sin in 1922 when the Soviet Constitution set up a federation of republics with their own boundaries within the Soviet Union. “This made possible the breakup of the U.S.S.R. into separate independent states in 1991,” Mr. Service says. Mr. Putin, like Stalin—who fell out with Lenin over these constitutional arrangements—would have liked all these republics to have been merged into a Greater Russia, ruled from Moscow.
“Putin despises democracy,” Mr. Service says. “He believes in the right of the leadership to impose the authority of the state on society.” ...He also believes in the importance of the secret police as an adjunct of government. In this, Mr. Service points out, many of his methods are “reminiscent of the Soviet period,” even if his ideology isn’t.
Mr. Putin “sees himself messianically,” Mr. Service says—as a leader come to deliver Russia to its destiny.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Service thinks the second blunder was Putin underestimating Ukraine and the West. He thought both Ukraine and the West would be a walkover, there would be no real resistance, apparently believing his own rhetoric.
Service thinks Putin will flatten Ukraine if necessary to win.
Says the only way out is if Putin is removed from power, possibly through either a palace coup by the elite or a mass uprising.
Says palace coup will be hard, Putin is cagey and security arrangements are severe
Talks about maybe a distant possibility of mass uprising succeeding, if the police come to have the same feelings as the protesters
p.s. the first link I found to this was paywalled; this link does not appear to me to be, but YMMV
Thank you for the summary.
Thanks for saying what he says are the “two blunders”.
What is YMMV?
“The Two Blunders That Caused the Ukraine War”
1. The election of Obama in 2008.
2. The election of Obama’s puppet in 2020.
Bingo.
“Says palace coup will be hard, Putin is cagey and security arrangements are severe”
If anyone can kill Putin it will be one of the people closest to him.
Case in point:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Indira_Gandhi
“Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated at 9:29 a.m. on 31 October 1984 at her residence in Safdarjung Road, New Delhi. She was killed by her Sikh bodyguards”
I don’t know if I would call these “blunders”. Maybe miscalculations. They assessed the situation and Putin’s past behavior and assumed that he would react predictably and rationally. I truly believe that he has gone mad.
Your Milage May Vary
Indeed, and an excellent summary, too.
Two blunders..Biden and Putin.
I contend this guy doesn’t know what he is talking about. He’s using the same old tired arguments regarding who Putin is. The MSN is dead.
“Your mileage may vary”
They assumed he’d just accept what they did. He didn’t. Putin is mad — that is, angry — and he’s making a big gamble, but I don’t think he’s crazy.
“Putin despises democracy,” Mr. Service says. “He believes in the right of the leadership to impose the authority of the state on society.” ...He also believes in the importance of the secret police as an adjunct of government.”
What’s the problem? Sounds just like our “democracy”.
Mr. Service is wrong on most counts and evidently has not studied Russian history or it’s relationship to the Ukraine over the last 500 to 1000 years, if he had he would understand the situation better.
Fixed it.
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