Posted on 04/28/2022 12:48:09 PM PDT by pierrem15
Russia's military setbacks in Ukraine pose a new set of security challenges in Europe and beyond.
When Russian forces began to roll towards the Ukrainian border on the evening of Defender of the Fatherland Day, 23 February, Moscow was anticipating the capture of Kyiv within three days. Many outside observers – including the authors of this report – feared the destruction of the conventional Ukrainian military, even if they expected the fighting to last longer than Moscow had hoped. Moscow’s plan was for repressive measures to have stabilised control of Ukraine by Victory Day on 9 May. Instead, the Russian military was repulsed, suffering heavy losses, and is now embarking upon a limited offensive to try to secure Donetsk and Luhansk.
The war in Ukraine has generated a considerable volume of highly detailed analysis relating to the military progress of the campaign, the struggle for information, the cascading economic effects of high energy prices and supply chain disruption, and the geopolitical fallout as countries are increasingly called upon to pick a side. However, despite an emphasis in Western security concepts on the need for a whole-of-government approach, much of the analysis on the war in Ukraine has focused on narrow silos. This Special Report seeks to examine how the interconnected challenges confronting Moscow are reshaping Russian policy, and the risks Moscow’s potential courses of action pose as the war enters a new phase. The foremost conclusion is that Russia is now preparing, diplomatically, militarily and economically, for a protracted conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at rusi.org ...
Trouble with Russian “full mobilization” is that the people called up will be mostly conscripts with no training and “retired and reservists who were conscripts years ago who will get no more training and a smattering of older “professionals”. All of which will become cannon fodder.
Russian has no trained ready reserves. Just cannon fodder.
The only trained troops available are the units that were broken up to supply the original invasion forces. But these are needed where they are: mostly facing China and the restless muslim Stans. Withdrawing them means Russia is open to being overrun in the South and Far East.
Russia will also try to cause further destabilization, for example in Moldova and possibly the Balkans.
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He does not have the troops to do any of than, even with mobilization. And the Balkans means NATO. More Putin disasters.
Would those be big problems? Could be if China also gets involved, since they shipped air defense to Serbia recently.
I think we could see Russia itself break apart the way the Soviet Union did in 1991.
Transnistria is just a small area of Moldova inhabited with mostly ethnic Russians after the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. It’s quite possible that after everything is over, the Russians will be required to completely withdraw from Moldova.
If the Ukrainians defeat the current offensive, the Russians may decide to escalate even more. The faster we bring the war to a conclusion, the better, although I would think the minimum would be Ukraine gets its Feb 24th borders and real security alliances, even if not NATO.
Russia has more resources to burn than Ukraine and the West do.
That is the sad fact.
The goal is the let Russia exhaust herself and then see what happens.
Here’s an interesting part:
“Russia’s war in Ukraine has made extensive use of cruise and ballistic missiles to hit targets of military, political and economic importance. Given the underperformance of the Russian Air Force,50 these weapons are vital to the ongoing war effort. Exact stockpiles of these weapons are not available but as the war has progressed Ukrainian officials have noted a downgrading of the weapons systems employed for a range of mission sets, including a reversion to Grad-1
systems off the main axis.51 US assessments note that the Russian military appears to be running low on precision-guided weapons.52 When it comes to prestige weapons systems like the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, there is a limit to the proportion of the stockpile Russia can expend against Ukraine without undermining its defence plans against NATO, China and others. Without an assured supply chain to manufacture more, the Russians are having to retain a large proportion of the stockpile, which would restrict their ability to strike Ukraine in the coming months. But here the Russian military industries face a problem, for Russia’s latest weapons are heavily dependent upon critical specialist components manufactured abroad.
The 9M727 cruise missile – fired from the Iskander-K – is an example of one of Russia’s most advanced weapons systems, able to manoeuvre at low altitude to a target and strike with considerable precision. In order to achieve this the missile must carry a computer able to ingest data from various inertial and active sensors and command links and translate these into instructions to manipulate the missile’s control surfaces. The authors physically inspected one of these computers recovered from a crashed 9M727 during fieldwork in April. This computer is roughly the size of an A4 sheet of paper and sits inside a heat shield able to withstand the pressure as the missile accelerates and the heat that engulfs the system. The computer must be remarkably robust, its components able to continue to function even as the structure around it is warped by temperature changes. This requires highly specialised materials and components. Of the seven socket attachment points allowing data to be moved through the heat shield, one is of Soviet-era design and manufactured in Russia. The remaining six are all products of US companies. The rails connecting the circuit boards to the computer housing, which must maintain the alignment of the components under immense forces, are similarly of US manufacture. The circuit boards themselves are sourced from the US.53”
“Putin will try to move a full mobilization”
A full mobilization of WHO?
Putin already called up able bodied veterans. He’s pulled in mercenaries from Chechnya, the Wagner Group, and etc. He’s stripped the Eastern Military District of more than 90% of its manpower and functioning vehicles. The Finns are reporting that Russian border stations and garrisons are running at skeleton-crew levels.
My Estonian friend tells me the usual noise of fighters from a Russian base near Lake Peipus is wholly absent the past few weeks.
Russia is already all-in on this war. There’s nothing left for the war this year. Even if they conscript more troops they’re just going to be infantry. There’s no more armor, no more trucks, no more planes, no more ships.
This is what they have. And they’re losing.
Meanwhile Ukraine is getting stronger with every passing day. So is NATO.
Well, “destabilization” does not necessarily mean invasion. Russians are masters of destabilization of countries through other means.
Yes, remember China and Yugoslavia had a “special relationship”. Yugoslavia may be long gone, but China may still consider that it has strategic interests in the successor states.
“Russia has more resources to burn than Ukraine and the West do.”
Resources alone don’t win wars. If you are losing 3 men for every 1 man you kill of the enemy, then the fact that you have twice the manpower is still meaningless. Ditto for tanks, planes, etc.
Mysterious Russian “soul”. They’re running out of cruise missiles and still fire them at random apartment buildings to terrorize people.
I think this thing some people call “soul” is just stupidity.
meanwhile, Moscow is burning. Major facilities including air operations offices and missile assembly plants were burned. Russia is Iran. strategic fires are lit and important facilities are burned down.
It’s as if the Mossad was hired by Ukraine to operate behind Russian lines and burn Moscow like it did in Iran.
What do you think the world would be like if that happened?
I think it would be unbelievably dangerous for the entire world if Russia started to disintegrate. The western part of Russia would have control of nukes and who knows what type of man will rise up to "save" the Rodina.
Everybody here cheering on the demise of Russia should look at Syria, Libya, Iraq and multiply it by 1000s of nuclear weapons.
We will be lucky if somehow a grown up can calm everybody down and quit throwing gas on this fire.
I'm thinking that if Putin goes nuclear and decides to attack the US in order to destroy us, he'll level Texas, Florida, all the silos in the plains, the sub bases and leave NYC, California (except for military bases/air fields and ports) and just let us eat each other alive.
Europe will be worse, but who f#$king cares about them? Africa and South America will just STFU and welcome the new bosses that rise from the ashes of China, Russia and the US. All the smart people that want to get back to nature will be given their wish and have a lot fewer people around. The elites will be hunted down and destroyed and don't even realize that they will be seen as the cause of the new dark age.
If I'm alive (which I doubt) I will have some schadenfreude when the billionaires, politicians and their families are lined up and dealt with...... similar to the Russian revolution or the French Revolution.... the mob will despise them and I hope they sell tickets.
I don’t think it’s stupidity. I think random terror against civilians is their tactic. It’s all they have, since going toe-to-toe against Ukraine’s motivated and equipped military is not working out so well for them.
An excellent article.
The USSR was able to “win” the “Great Patriotic War” because the United States was providing the manufacturing basis for their armed forces.
That situation no longer exists, and “Russia” does not have the internal resources to replace it.
Having resources and being able to convert them into something useful are two very different things.
They have an aging, not healthy population. So, the “bench” is not deep. Their training is harsh and not very good.
They have lots of canibalized weapons. Their maintenance sucks—so spare parts are not available. They might have XX tanks, but many of them are unserviceable. The parts they need are made in Ukraine. Oops.
In their private sector the machinery used in manufacturing is not made in Russia. They can get Chinese parts, but not German. Or other European parts. The production metrics are going to start reflecting that.
I doubt they will have the strength to project power into a NATO fight.
Politically, I am not sure of the impact of 20k dead or maimed soldiers coming home. At some point, these moms are going to start talking to each other…and the base will start to crumble.
Vlad is bluffing. He holds a pair of sevens and a king. His population is smaller than Java.
His economy is smaller than Canada and is dependent on oil that seems to be in trouble. You seem to equate the USSR with Russia. Not the same at all. Russia barely exceeds the economy of Australia that has only a fraction of the people Russia has
Vlad can’t challenge the combined Euro and American sanctions and must just suffer the ever increasing squeeze.
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