No traction for a war-ending deal in Ukraine

asiatimes.com ^ | May 28, 2022 | Stephen Bryen

[elpadre]

As the US celebrates its Memorial Day weekend, remembering its fallen war heroes, the situation in Ukraine has shifted dramatically.

While a week ago Ukrainian leaders were confident that they could drive the Russians from Ukrainian territory, now it appears they are heading for a major defeat in the Donbass region, the area of Eastern Ukraine that stretches all the way down to the Azov Sea and beyond.

If the Russians do defeat the main force of Ukraine’s army, or trap them in an unfolding pincer operation, Ukraine will inevitably have to reach a settlement with Russia.

All of this could happen very quickly. The US and European press, in particular, has started to tell the real story of the unfolding battle, after weeks of disgorging Ukrainian propaganda on how they were slaughtering Russian forces.

Now, with the tables turned, leaders in the US and in NATO, and especially the British, are likely to be almost as unhappy as the Ukrainians.

No matter what deal may be made, and one seems likely if the Russians give a green light, the West will have another big black eye, and NATO membership will look less and less attractive.

The US is hurrying to send new types of weapons to Ukraine, including HIMARS, a high mobility precision rocket system. These will have to be yanked from war stocks, which could very well weaken US capabilities elsewhere, especially in East Asia.

But even if the US resolves to send HIMARS, it is probably too late for Ukraine’s resistance. Furthermore, the Russians have warned that there will be a price to pay if HIMARS is delivered and deployed.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing the ground to reach a deal with the Russians.

[elpadre]

excerpt:

“..It is easy to forget that part of the reason behind Biden’s almost irrational commitment to fight in Ukraine has been to cover up his massive failure in Afghanistan, marked by the hasty and chaotic retreat of American troops last August that allowed the Taliban to declare a clear victory.

The Ukraine gambit appears to have been a shrewd, if not cynical policy: NATO seems together as never before, the US and its allies are shipping in weapons at an unprecedented pace and Ukraine seems to be shoving the Russians back. It looked as if Biden could walk away a big hero, linking arms with Zelensky. ..”

But - it is not going Biden’s way as of today

[Angelino97]

I notice the Ukraine War hasn’t been covered much lately. I wonder if it’s people short attention spans. People are bored by long, drawn out events. So the media shifts attention to other news.

[OttawaFreeper]

I recall the comment in the article “it could go on for years”. I can’t imagine either side wanting that sort of situation, given the losses already suffered by both sides, Putin’s alleged health issues, and other things. I wonder if that sort of bitter peace might become that more necessary.

[Pollard]

All of today’s Ukraine articles are saying the same thing.

The $40 billion check cleared the bank.

Time for a narrative shift.

Six years lying about Trump. Last two years lying about covid and vaccines but suddenly they were telling the truth about this?

[AndyJackson]

I am a solution to the continue history of embarrassments that the US has suffered in its foreign adventures.... stop having foreign adventures.

Fix the US, its borders and its social problems, stick by our real allies and leave the rest of the world alone would be a good start to ending this nonsense. A corrollary is to stop having so-called allies in places where we have no legitimate interests.

And stop this nonsense of driving the Russians and Chinese together. They will play both ends [Pacific and NATO] against a soft American middle. NATO goes or Taiwan goes. And from there it is really down hill. We will be left with the tyrannical dictatorship of Canada as our neighbor, friend and ally. But maybe we can concentrate then on the real enemy, the growing narco terrorist state that is eating up our other neighbor, Mexico and much of the US as well.

[elpadre]

“..So the media shifts attention to other news...”

or because the current news doesn’t fit into their narrative.

[escapefromboston]

They got their 40 billion so no reason to lie about their chances anymore

[AndyJackson]

but suddenly they were telling the truth about this?

Well to believe they ever told the truth about the war in Ukraine you have to believe that the Russians were incompetent at land warfare and had no weapons or ability to manufacture the same. Suddenly they are tearing up, through and apart the Ukrainian forces in the East, and managing to keep their massive artillery supplied with munitions to keep blowing everything up. They seem to be able to use drones as spotters and to hit high value logistics targets in the Ukrainian rear as far away as Odessa and Lvov or Lviv. Sure the Russians are taking losses. Land warfare, on the ground is messy. One soldier with a gun can always kill another soldier with a gun no matter which side you are on.

The Pentagon's antiseptic style of warfare has failed to hold ground anywhere - last time we were good at it was WWII which was not antiseptic and lots of Americans got killed. Battles in places like Tarawa and Iwo were godawful hells. But that is real warfare on the ground. As Patton said, you make the other SOB die for his country.

[Karl Spooner]

“..So the media shifts attention to other news...”

or because the current news doesn’t fit into their narrative.

That's for sure. It's a rout right now. They despartly need more Dailymail articles!

.

AFU SURRENDERS/ ARMY MOCKING IMPOSSIBLE CONDITIONS/ REALITY OF AFU TRENCH SITTING/ INSTANT EXECUTION

[Sacajaweau]

Ukraine stuck on stupid....They must be wearing blinders.

[ganeemead]

It has NEVER gone Biden’s way, NATO’s way, or the deep state’s way. Ukraine’s air force and navy were smashed after about two days and the whole thing has been a disaster for ukies since then.

[Widget Jr]

There isn't much "exciting" for the news to talk about is part of it.

Russia's advance to Popasna has gradually put Lysychansk at risk of being surrounded, the same is happening at Sviatohirsk. It looks like Russia is finally figuring out how to fight a war. The Pro-Ukraine side doesn't like that.

Second, the early stage of the war is over. Ukraine is mobilizing and rearming, Russia is trying to correct mistakes and make small gains, even at high cost. There is not any big action for the experts on TV to talk about, although experts who don't get on TV are watching. It looks like the tempo has slowed down so both sides can prepare for what will follow.

[Bernard]

Will the corporate profits from fueling and funding the war in Biden’s ATM exceed the corporate profits from fueling and funding the corporate profits from Fauci Flu? The only difference between the two seems to be how often Fauci gets in front of a camera.

[pierrem15]

They haven’t surrendered yet and have actually pushed the Russians back in some places. I would also be extremely skeptical about the Ukrainians leaving the bulk of their army to be surrounded.

[OKSooner]

It would appear that all the interested parties want an ongoing war.

All except the people of Ukraine and maybe the people of Russia too, depending on how effective their propaganda is. Has anyone asked all the 19yo conscripts for their opinion?

If someone could slip up on Vlad and cap him in the brain that might make it stop, but who/what would take his place?

OTOH are we sure it would stop if that happened? Maybe one isn't so sure.

[OKSooner]

If the Ukrainian generals are being micromanaged by their civilian leadership in the way that certain other generals have been micromanaged in other places and times, that is entirely possible.

Hitler wasn't the only one who dictated strategy to his generals, to his own country's detriment. Stalin, Truman, LBJ/Nixon, and now... the Ukrainian guy who has banned all opposition political parties and was not all that long ago playing the piano with his p***s, how capable would one suppose he is of the exact same thing?

[pierrem15]

If that were the case, then like Hitler, Zelensky would have been sacking and re-assigning generals and defense ministers. But I do not see that. The only sackings I've read about were the former head of the territorial militias who supposedly sent troops without proper training and equipment from the Carpathian area to Donbas a couple of weeks ago, plus some generals suspected of being Russian agents near the beginning of the war.

I don't see the Ukes firing or rotating combat commanders nearly as often as Putin seems to have been doing.

[C210N]

the Ukraine War hasn’t been covered much lately...

That's because, while the 'war' was over within a few days of its start, it was fought in the media. When a war is fought mainly in the media, it can really start anytime... and end on a dime, for greener pastures (inflation, Uvalde, etc).

[CarolinaReaganFan]

Z should be working on a ceasefire deal while he still has something to trade ....starting point for negotiations likely to be current lines of control whenever that occurs. Z still has a tiny bit of Luhansk and a lot of Dontesk that he could give up maybe for a bit of Kharkov and getting to keep Odessa and Mykolav provinces..Z would be better off with ports than without them.