Russia failed to remove Ukraine's SAM capabilities and as a result have never been able to sustain operations over the battlefield.
Posted on 08/26/2022 8:03:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Yesterday, Allahpundit wrote about the Russian effort to feed more troops into the stalled war on Ukraine. Russia’s inability to advance creates a possible opening for a Ukrainian counterattack. And we’ve seen some signs that Ukraine has been taking the initiative with attacks on supply lines and ammunition depots in Crimea and elsewhere. Just today there is another story that Ukraine struck a Russian base and killed 200 paratroopers:
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck enemy fortifications in occupied Kadiivka, killing about 200 Russian paratroopers,” he wrote on Twitter.
Haidai noted that the occupiers had been based in a hotel in Kadiivka since 2014. The Russians claim that on Aug. 26, the Ukrainian armed forces fired 10 HIMARS missiles at the city.
This is not the first effective attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kadiivka. On July 15 and 18, Ukrainian defenders hit ammunition depots in the city, and on July 24, they hit the occupiers’ barracks.
Ukraine is once again crediting local “partisans,” local fighters using guerilla tactics and feeding information the Ukrainian military from within Russian controlled areas. But these strikes, as successful as they’ve been, don’t constitute a full counteroffensive designed to push Russia out of seized territory.
Putin’s focus on finding more troops probably suggests that he’s not going to launch any major offensives anytime soon. He’s waiting for reinforcements and is prepared to have this drag on for another year if necessary. The Russian war machine isn’t very good but by firing artillery endlessly from afar he can eventually wear down resistance. He’s probably also hoping the west will be too busy this winter with its own problem (some of which he helped create) and will grow tired of the hassle and expense of supporting Ukraine.
That leaves Ukraine in the position of deciding whether a full counteroffensive in the near term is worth the risk.
The timing for any such attack has emerged as a pivotal decision for Ukraine’s government. Both sides are preparing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall — before the rainy season turns the countryside into impassable bogs, or energy shortages and soaring costs undermine European support.
“An offensive is risky,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., assessing Ukraine’s options.
“If it fails, the outcome could affect external support,’’ he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of opportunity, beyond which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against a Russian army that has had time to entrench.”
Failure is always bad but there’s at least as big a risk from not trying and having people lose hope or patience.
“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
“It makes no sense to drag out the war for years and compete to see who will run out of resources first,” he wrote.
And of course, there’s also the potential upside of a counterattack. A win, even a modest one, makes the situation much more difficult for Putin. Putin is popular when he looks strong. Looking weak will take some of the nationalist wind out of his sails.
The US recently committed $3 billion in aid to Ukraine. An aide to President Zelensky said that would allow them to pursue a counteroffensive.
“This means that we’ll be in a position now to effectively counterattack, to launch a counteroffensive,” Podolyak said, referring to the influx of assistance. “And we can defeat the enemy with the new equipment and with the new numerical value that is attached to our capacity and our capabilities.”
They’re clearly thinking about it. We’ll have to wait and see just how ambitions they are.
“Importantly, and unlike the Red Army in 1943, Russian forces at present also enjoy virtual total air superiority. Under these circumstances, a significant massing of forces by the Ukrainians for a breakthrough offensive would be a fool’s errand.”
Another ‘Million Man March’, I presume. LOL.
Putin’s army, routed by your anecdote, is fleeing in beaten disarray westward towards Nikolaev and Artemivsk [Bakhmut], while the fresh formations of the AFU advance relentlessly to the Dnepr and to Odessa.
The Liberal World Order has been badgering the Ukraine for months to launch an offensive.
And why not? It isn’t sons and nephews of the Davos glitteratti who will be dying in the mud of the Donbas.
I don’t know that Ukraine needs to mount a major offensive. The lines are static now, and Ukraine has been using the new toys supplied by the West to attack Russian fuel and arms depots, bridges, and other choice targets. A Ukrainian advance on the West Bank of the Dneiper is likely now that the bridges have been dropped, but even that may be gradual. The longer the war grinds on, the less support it will have at home, and that could cause regime change as in 1917.
If only the Ukrainians had an Air Force left......
“Without a credible air capability, Ukraine is incapable of launching any kind of ground offensive to oust Russians from Kherson or any other piece of territory controlled by Russia. If Ukraine is able to cobble together a regiment or two, supported by a tank battalion, the Ukrainian force will run into a wall of fire from Russian artillery, drones, missiles, helicopters and jet fighters. That is a suicide mission and I cannot understand why many of the military pundits populating the U.S. airwaves are afraid to acknowledge this reality. It cannot be ignorance. There is too much information on the internet that contradicts the flood of propaganda from western media and government sources insisting that Russia is stalled or losing. It is not.
.........
These guys and gals have one job–persuade the American people that they should continue to support sending billions of dollars in military gear and financial aid to Ukraine. Once the American people wake up and realize this is now a fool’s errand, the bamboozle will be over. But not completely. The propaganda campaign has poisoned future prospects for normal relations with Russia. That is dangerous. Not even during the darkest days of the Cold War did the United States try to isolate Russia and refuse to engage on the diplomatic level. A return to diplomacy appears as likely as a Ukrainian offensive to retake Crimea. It is not in the cards.”
‘Combined Arms - A Look at Russian Air Ops in Donbass’
https://sonar21.com/combined-arms-a-look-at-russian-air-ops-in-the-donbas/
The more the media pushes the idea of a Ukrainian counter offensive the less likely I think it is to happen.
Careless cockpit smoking.
“wall of fire from Russian artillery, drones, missiles, helicopters and jet fighters. “
So where are those Russian drones, helicopters and jet fighters? How come they aren’t currently in the fight?
When America goes to war we launch hundreds of sorties per day. The Russian air force has been a fringe player in this operation.
The problem is that Russia’s 40 year old aircraft have no protection against even Ukraine’s mediocre SAM defenses. Every time Russian planes overfly Ukrainian territory a few of them don’t come back.
Ukraine’s airforce is stuck on the ground for similar reasons and that has turned this into a WWI style war of artillery and infantry.
It’s apparent you did not bother to even look at the link I provided that contained a video showing a series of Russian combat flights over the Donbass?
And despite your stubborn belief and others that the Ukrainian air force is “stuck on the ground,” to the contrary, the Ukrainian air force has pretty much been decimated. The Ghost of Kyiv no longer exists.
Podolyak seems to be unaware of how slowly that $3 billion Defense package is going to dribble in. It’s gonna be like an old guy with an enlarged prostate when he wakes up hurtin’ in the morning...
Euro NATO contributions to the Ukes are generally even worse in this regard.
So far, Ukraine has received 16 HIMARS launchers. 16 isn’t enough to do squat over an area like this conflict. The Poles seem to have figured this out. They just ordered 500. The Poles also have ordered 366 Abrams M1 tanks (250 will be the latest variant) and 1000(!) high end ($8.5 million each) K2 tanks from South Korea. THAT is the sort of level of weaponry Ukraine needs, and across the board.
Ukraine has been loudly talking for weeks about a major offensive against Kherson.
That makes an attack in that direction the least likely thing the Ukrainians attempt.
Steiner is going to lead the offensive
*MAGA First/Anti-War/Anti-Globalist Ping*
If you want on or off this list, please let me know.
A handful of flights is not air superiority. Look at our wars. No enemy of the USA can openly move about in daylight because we can destroy them from the air.
Ukraine has trains filled with artillery shells rumbling towards the front lines every day. Russia has no way of hitting targets like that currently.
Do you suppose, that in a few weeks, they can have that aircraft ready to fly again? 🤪😝
Ukraine's army, routed by literally tens of thousands of retarded Putinist bots online saying nonsense like the below, and they're STILL making them--through bots like you--on this forum:
What I’m hearing is that Ukraine is waiting on enough weapons to ensure the success of the counter offensive.
In the meantime if Ukraine can disrupt supply lines, cut bridges and destroy headquarters, so much the better.
The west has been too slow at providing the weapons.
Even the $3 billion Biden just announced, is part of the $40 billion that Congress approved back in March. But it won’t arrive for months, because most of it is new orders from factories as opposed to shipping existing weapons.
That’s how Biden is earning the Moscow mayor’s bribes and the Russian leaning Oligarch of Burisma’s bribes. They are slow walking aid, while publicizing every dime, and trying to still appear to be the leader of the West.
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