[Robert A Cook PE]

I was going to post the .5% prediction last night but since the number was coming out today I didn't. The real joke is where the Atlanta FED predicted the 3rd Quarter GDP around just two weeks ago- 2.75% Growth! - WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING?! Because it has worn off rather quickly.

Yes. “They are advertising” this number today as a 0.3 “growth” (down from the previously released 0.5 “growth”).

First.

This permits a “SEE, WE TOLD YOU THERE WAS NO RECESSION” for 4 more weeks between today (late September) and the “Final 3rd quarter numbers” (released just before the election in November. )

Then, when the “actual numbers” are released in October as ANOTHER POSITIVE QUARTER” of perhaps an anemic 0.1 or 0.15% “growth” there will be much applause and plaudits from Biden's massed news media.

Then, when the revised-revised numbers for Quarter 3 come out in December or January, the TRUE NEGATIVE growth that we all know is the actual case! will be blamed on the Republican Congress elected in November.

[Red Badger]

...will be blamed on the Republican Congress elected in November.

Which won't take their seats until January 2nd....................

[ConservativeInPA]

The problem with your prognostication is we already had two negative quarters and the 3rd quarter will be negative too. GDPNow’s estimates converge to the Commerce Department’s GDP estimates, which turn into the official GDP figure for the year. The GDP for 2022 will come out at the end of January 2023. It will be revised a final time at the end of February.

Democrats own 2022.

There’s no doubt that Democrats will try to blame Republicans. If Republicans weren’t so complicit with Democrats, or had an ounce of fight in them, they would be nailing Democrats to the cross on all the government spending that has been put on the books for the future. The economy will be in the tank next year because of spending bills this year, and last year and the last decades.

Republicans need to be prepared for the worst and start communicating how they will fix the economy and how long it will take. It will be painful for a lot of people. Just watch unemployment ramp up between now and the end of the year. Real unemployment actually ticked up last month. BLS was double counting jobs, i.e., if a person had two jobs, it counted as two people being employed. 99% of politicians are economic morons and don’t pay attention to the details.

[LS]

I thought I saw it was actually going to be .1%??