Posted on 02/10/2023 11:29:35 AM PST by SoConPubbie
State of the Union: A Trump ’24 focus on foreign policy restraint is very good news. And we shouldn’t be surprised.
Over at Politico, there’s a noteworthy report on some early jockeying in the 2024 GOP primary:
Those close to Trump’s campaign operation say he plans to try and paint himself as an anti-war dove amongst the hawks. They believe doing so will resonate with GOP voters who are divided on, but growing wary of, continued support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
This is a smart political move from 45. “Growing wary” of Ukraine support could prove to be an understatement, especially among the base. A January CBS/YouGov poll shows the majority of Republicans now want their member of Congress to oppose further Ukraine funding. And more noticeable is how quickly opinion is shifting: Republicans now prefer urging a peace deal “even if that means Ukraine will lose some territory” over supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes,” 63 to 33 percent. That’s a 17 point swing from November, when 50 percent of Republicans supported the as-long-as-it-takes option.
The Trump campaign’s positioning is also true to form. The Donald has long had an uncanny, instinctive understanding of his base’s priorities. We shouldn’t forget that Trump was the one who finally broke the spell of the Bush dynasty and allowed Republicans to say publicly what they all knew to be true: The Iraq war was an unmitigated disaster. Now, you’d be hard pressed to find any unapologetic defenders of that costly misadventure outside the most committed of the Beltway class.
Of course, Trump’s first term was a mixed bag when it came to foreign policy, but there’s reason to believe his second would be markedly better. Personnel was perhaps the most handicapping aspect of the administration. Now, some of the most hawkish elements from the first Trump White House are either vocally critical of their former boss (Gina Haspel, Jim Mattis) or toying with opposing Trump for the nomination themselves (John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley). We know just how intertwined personality and policy become when it comes to Trump. With hawks lining up against him, that bodes well.
More importantly, the Politico report reemphasizes what has always been true: Trump was the first real disruption to a failed bipartisan foreign policy consensus that wrought terrible consequences around the globe. He remains uniquely capable of challenging the sacred cows to which more conventional political actors are either too ideologically or politically committed to oppose in any real sense beyond lip service.
As my TAC colleague Micah Meadowcroft has noted, some political issues take priority in conditioning others:
I’d add one caveat to Micah’s political PEMDAS, which is simply that the political order of operations only works within the larger context of shared basic priors about the nature of the human person. No amount of foreign policy restraint or immigration restriction can atone for squishiness on transgender ideology or protecting innocent life. And for now, it seems the Bad Orange Man might have that issue cornered as well:
The first step in the order of political operations is foreign policy and immigration.... No reformation or renaissance in political life here at home is possible without recognition of this fact. Just as ignoring parentheses in a mathematical calculation will produce a wrong answer, so too have 30 years of American policymakers ignoring borders both here and abroad in pursuit of global liberal empire resulted in harm to American citizens.
There’s a long way to go in the Republican primary, let alone the general election. But if there’s one thing we can be certain of after the past eight years, it’s to never count out The Donald. If he remains in the policy lane that he appears to be courting this early in the primary process, his political resilience could bode very well for the country.
Peace through strength.
Still I wouldn’t mess with him. Ask Jeb!
The only prominent US political figure that clearly wants to conserve the lives of US military personnel.
Biden accused the GOP of wanting to cut SSI-puts us on defense. We can do the same with the peace issue. When election rolls around just say no military draft. It’s only democrats who bring it up.
Just wait Linda or Mittens will bring it up as a possibility.
The filthy liars on the left moved the “doomsday clock” to almost midnight when Trump was president, and announced it. They lied. Trump made nuclear war LESS likely.
he plans to try and paint himself as an anti-war dove amongst the hawks.
He proved that for 4 years. All while beefing up the military, showing he wasn’t afraid to use it to accomplish a specific, stated goal and not trying to conquer the world and cause chaos for the NWO types to cash in on.
Peace through strength.
Surrendering to Russian nuclear blackmail isn’t strength. It’s weakness and every hot spot in the world will nuke up seeing how weak the US is now.
Go away paid agent of K Street. BTW, if you are real and not a bot, did you ever serve in any active (not NG or Reserves) branch of the armed forces and if so when and were you ever deployed in an active theater, and if so when and where?
“Republicans now prefer urging a peace deal “even if that means Ukraine will lose some territory” over supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes,” 63 to 33 percent. That’s a 17 point swing from November, when 50 percent of Republicans supported the as-long-as-it-takes option.”
But our demented neocons right here on FR disagree.
Even more, they have not yet realized they lost the war in the arena of ideas. Their vile character assassinations have been for naught.
A majority of the Republican party supports Ukrainian land for peace in Europe. And you can expect the House to shift position very rapidly.
There will NOT be another big infusion of money and equipment for Ukraine. And messaging from Washington to Kiev will be instructing compromise.
Surrendering to Russian nuclear blackmail isn’t strength. It’s weakness and every hot spot in the world will nuke up seeing how weak the US is now.
Same old, same old. Anyone for peace is a Putin stooge, right? Ukraine is none of business. We should have offered to mediate negotiations long before the war started.
What? You’re talking Biden, not Trump.
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