Posted on 07/10/2023 7:50:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
With the spectacle of kaiju candidates Ronzilla and King Don flattening Tokyo as they battle it out for the presidential nomination, it's no surprise that the Senate races are getting short-shrift. But don’t overlook them – look the hell out of them. These are hugely important because a Senate majority provides a critical bulwark – not the sissy dork kind but the real kind – against total Dem dominance if we lose our razor-thin House majority and if we nominate a presidential candidate who can’t get it done in the general. We have a very good map this cycle – we can’t blow it again.
Let’s talk about the presidential nominee thing for a second because it will be important. If we nominate Donald Trump, every Democrat invertebrate is going to come crawling out of his/her/xir libhole to vote against him. Nothing motivates these weasels like The Donald. This applies even if that crusty, senile old pervert with the popularity of chlamydia is on the ticket. Sure, Democrat voters understand that Biden is in a persistent vegetative state – maybe he should borrow some of Hunter’s blow to liven things up – but they hate Trump more. Their election of Keystone Shrek demonstrates they are willing to vote for a golem over Trump. Sadly, the same is true of some Republicans who will not vote for The Big T regardless – they should vote for the nominee regardless, but people are not always rational. So, in the Senate races, if Trump is on the ticket, it’s going to matter a lot. You don’t have to like that reality, but a reality it is.
Here's another wild card. You might have noticed unless you get your news from the regime media, that Joe Biden is a massively corrupt scumbag with a dope-addled son who leaves his yeyo lying around the Oval Office when he’s not blasting rails of it off the booties of Ukrainian hookers. Well, the House GOP has noticed, and it is gathering the goods. There is approximately the same chance of the GOP impeaching Biden next year as there is Hunter Biden knocking up a stripper on your average Wednesday night down at the Cinnamon Hippo – 100%. This is a problem because the Democrat senators from red and purple states are going to have to vote on convicting the PINO – President-In-Name-Only – and if they go with the evidence, they alienate the pinkos they need. If they don’t, normal people may be offended by giving Crusty a pass. This is a huge dilemma for them, and their pain as they contort their flabby bodies trying to avoid it somehow will be hysterically funny to behold.
Also, no discussion of the GOP Senate will be complete without talking about Mitch McConnell. Love him, hate him, whatever – he was the dominant force in the Senate for years, and now…where did he go? We barely hear from him. We know he got badly hurt recently, and while he’s back, he’s definitely out of the limelight. His record in 2022 – like many people’s – was bad. Keeping a low profile might help with hardcore conservatives, who are pretty much done with him. His not being the face of the Senate race will help, but he will not be out of the game. You can be sure he will be behind the scenes, including raising money.
Let’s look at the key Senate races and understand that if the Republicans are smart, they can get the two seats we need to retake the majority. But then, remember that they are Republicans.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin could not be more toast if he were made of Wonderbread and smeared with butter. A Dem in WV is an anomaly that simply will not endure. There’s a good chance Joe does not even run and instead takes the nod from the No Labels geeks or does something else to escape the coming humiliation. There is no needle he can thread that saves his seat in 2024. This is a lock for the GOP.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown is a weird communist doofus who my home state has inexplicably elected several times, even though it has been getting consistently redder over the years. The idea of a younger, less-virile Bernie Sanders representing Ohio is bizarre, and this cycle, it is time to send him to where fired pinkos go. Trump will not hurt the GOP here, but the impeachment issue will hurt Brown since Brown holds a fellow Democrat countable for his crimes. I like Bernie Moreno here, but it will be a big primary because the GOP smells blood. This is a likely win for the GOP.
Montana: Trump’s endorsement – or even his being on the ballot – might help here. Jon Tester, who pretends to be a common-sense moderate at home but does commie puppy play with his hard-left Dem masters in DC, is running again. He’s the candidate who is most super-screwed if Kevin McCarthy can get the impeachment done. It will matter in Montana if the crew-cut comm-Symp who voted to impeach Trump gives Biden a “Get Out of Getting Out of the White House” free card. The problem for the Republicans in Montana is, as usual, Republicans. It is unclear who will run for the seat. The establishment is trying to get a self-funder in. That’s always risky, and even when they get in, self-funders are often soft. Matt Rosedale, who is kind of obnoxious, is the other big name, but he has already failed one test against Tester. Testers should be easy pickings, but leave it to the GOP to make the easy win hard. This is a toss-up for the GOP, one we could very easily blow.
Indiana: I was not even going to mention this race since Rep. Jim Banks has it sewed up, but just the other day, some self-funder egg magnate named John Rust made noise about jumping in. This literal RINO, when he even bothers voting in primaries, often votes Democrats – it’s unclear if he even identifies as a Republican, even though that’s the party he’s claiming to be in this week. Apparently, Rust thinks there’s some untapped groundswell of Hoosier support for foregoing a proven winner like Banks and instead embracing a narcissistic doofus with a track record of backing pinkos. Banks has the endorsement of Trump and a bunch of senators we like, as well as, presumably, the poultry community, over Eggboy. If this latest rich guy with dreams of political glory is determined to waste his money, so be it. But Indiana is going to elect a real conservative in Jim Banks even if this scrambled fraud decides to jump into the frying pan. This is a lock for the GOP.
Pennsylvania: The Democrat running this year is not the brain-damaged ogre. It’s Bob Casey Jr., who used to pretend to be moderate but figures he no longer needs to pretend. His vote for Biden in the impeachment will be irrelevant. Suppose you are willing to elect a semi-ambulatory human bratwurst like Fetterman. In that case, you are not voting against someone for hi-fiving Chi-com operatives as they hand President Grafto a sack with a dollar sign on it. We need a strong nominee, but PA tends to pick people who are DOA. There is speculation that Dr. Oz might run again. He’s a nice guy, but he needs to not. I like David McCormick, a fellow Gulf War vet with the dough and the smarts to give it a good run. Also, if Trump is on the ticket, that will hurt us badly. This is tough for the GOP and will be even tougher if we nominate another weak candidate.
Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema is now an independent, which means she’s a Democrat who the party is mad at but not mad enough not to caucus with. She is being primaried by a flat-out communist, but her pseudo-centrism – she always comes in for the win when the Dems need her – has served her well. Expect her to be the de facto, if not facto, Dem nominee.
We need to beat her, but can we? Candidates matter, and Arizonans elected a bunch of Republican congresspeople last time, so the votes are there. They just refused to elect the other Republicans on the ballot. I like Kari Lake, but if she runs and gets nominated, we’re nearly certain to lose. Trump will hurt the GOP if he is on the ticket – like in Georgia, he has simply burned too many bridges with the party rank-and-file.
Oh, and there are going to be more election shenanigans under the Dem administration. But luckily, Trump’s pick for GOP chair Ronna McDaniel is on the case and is certain to be just as effective in 2024 as she was in 2020 and 2022. So, The GOP can probably write off Arizona.
Nevada: What a heartbreaker. Nevada has these Democrat mediocrities as senators and we keep losing to them, barely. Adam Laxalt does not seem to be running again – he was evidence that you can have a good candidate and still lose – and it is unclear who might be able to take on and win whoever the hell the current Nevada senator is. She can freely vote to exonerate the corrupt PINO; the Democrat machine is beyond questions of mere policy or morality. Nevada is not looking good; this is a likely lose.
Wisconsin: Noted middle-aged wine woman Tammy Baldwin is the Democrat incumbent and Congressman Mike Gallagher took a pass on running. It’s unclear who will run – likely some self-funding rich guy who will get bulldozed into defeat. Sad! Wisconsin is winnable, but you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Don’t hold out much hope here; this is another likely loss.
Utah: This state is not going Democrat, but we still need to win it back for the Republicans. I want Mitt Romney to be not only beaten but broken. I want him handed a giant humiliation sandwich and to watch him take a bite. He's a smug, narcissistic trash who screwed over Mike Lee, Donald Trump, and everyone else he has ever dealt with (I still do not forgive him for what the spineless press did to Ric Grenell in 2012). But this is Utah, and Utah people are weird Republicans. Some are based. Some are stuck in 2005. If Romney runs, he could win again, as insane as that seems. I like Jason Chaffetz. It’s time that Utah gets a second senator.
The bottom line is we are likely to get two more seats if we do not blow one of our holds. But again, these are Republicans – don’t ever underestimate the GOP’s ability to screw-up a sure thing.
The candidate selection process guarantees that it does not matter who wins.
Never underestimate the pubbies ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
SPIT.
Lets make sure we get early Trump endorsements for Senate candidates so we can put the absolute best people forward. Trump only endorses winners!!!
We are more confident than ever that Republicans will do everything in their power to lose.
“... if we nominate a presidential candidate who can’t get it done in the general.”
Hmmmmmmmmm, what are you saying here exactly?
Whommmmmmmm could you be referencing here?
I’ll guess its Donald J Trump whom you are dissing here since NO ONE is even close to him for the nomination.
Didn’t Jason Chaffetz leave Congress, to spend more time with the family, didn’t want to be in politics anymore?
McCormick in Pennsylvania? I recall numerous Freepers said he was a RINO.
Az will go rat.
Doesn’t matter how the people vote there anymore.
Trump has best win/loss record than any MLB teams.
And better than 95% of NFL teams.
“... if Trump is on the ticket, that will hurt us badly. “
Tell us how you REALLY feel.
“Trump will hurt the GOP if he is on the ticket – like in Georgia, he has simply burned too many bridges with the party rank-and-file.”
Can you see the Trump hater exposing himself yet?
And then there’s mail in voting and drop boxes, so save your thoughts on actual fair and legal elections.
Boy he sure did great last time!
Pennsylvania:
OZ is still born, a horrible candidate, at least for statewide office in PA.. I doubt he or McCormick have any shot of replacing Casey. Neither of those candidates is going to inspire or excite the base, or pull in the middle.
Casey has phoned in and won 3 Senate races, and the PA GOP continue to basically be a RINO organization, and until that changes, they will never take out Casey.
Any candidate that could actually excite the base enough to turn out as needed to win against the Democrat machine in PA is not supported by the GOP of PA. The one wildcard in the PA race would be Trump being the nominee... it is possible that his coattails could drag someone over the line.
About the only candidate who I have seen lately who might have have a shot that isn’t completely disowned and attacked by the state GOP was Parnell, and he was taken out last time by Ex alleging abuse during their divorce.
As long as people like Barnette are being attacked and destroyed by the GOP machine, don’t hold your breath on anything changing in PA.
WV:
Manchin would have been toast last election if WV had had a stronger candidate running... this time it looks like they have a solid candidate in Justice. I would expect Justice to win.
Ohio:
Don’t follow as closely, but I would expect with Trump leading the ballot, that anyone who voted for impeachment there to be lambasted, as long as the GOP candidate is not a complete dud. I am hard pressed to see in an election where Trump will be on the ballot, that someone like that could pull off a win in anywhere but a deep blue state.
Montana:
Tester, I really don’t know. First elected during Bush’s second term mid term, which was a low point for the GOP... stayed in due to a 3rd party when he was on the ballot in 12. Benefitted from the party out of power mid term benefit in 18... Not sure what will happen this time.
Last presidential election cycle for him was Obama’s re-election and had the benefit of a 3rd party libertarian syphoning off 6% of the vote. This time? With Trump at the top of the ballot, and a very angry general electorate... I am not going to say Tester will lose at this point (as who he will run against will matter)... but I would say this race is a good indication of whether Trump hate is strong enough to save a Dem.
Indiana short of some black swan event that would take out the top tier GOP candidate should be a lock for the GOP.
AZ - given the abject and flagrant and unapologetic fraud of the last election there, unless something is done about that, I would expect the same nonsense again.
Nevada - don’t know, but wouldn’t expect an upset there.
Wisconsin - this is a winnable state, but if you don’t have a strong candidate you will lose.. and don’t see one on the horizon.
Utah - As much as I dislike Romney, I don’t see him being primaried... the Mormons will keep carrying this guy over the line there until he dies.
Here’s the truth about PA, the GOP is a huge part of the problem.. PERIOD.
The math of PA is very simple:
46%D
39%R
14%I
If you want to win in a statewide race in PA you need to get every republican vote you can and then win the Independents by more than 2 to 1 and/or peel away moderate/conservative democrat voters.
The state GOP basically is stuck in the past, they believe “moderate” country club republican candidates can manage that.. and they can’t, not any more. Those types of candidates will NOT motivate, excite or get the turn out of the base, let alone peel off dems or win the I’s more than 2 to 1.
McCormick is a better candidate here than OZ, but he’s a member of the WEF, etc etc etc.. He’s not likely to get the turnout needed to win.
To win statewide as a republican you need to be an absolutely stellar, strong candidate... Dems can run mediocre and win, they only need to add 4%+1 vote outside their base to win statewide, Republicans need to win 11%+1 vote outside their base to win.
It was the REPUBLICANS who instituted vote by mail not needing a reason. It was the republicans who raised the Gas Taxes in PA to the highest in the nation... etc etc etc. The PA GOP is part of the problem.. and Harrisburg is as much, if not more of a swamp than DC in many ways.
The state GOP doesn’t give a crap about conservatives, other than to pay them lip service for their votes. Yes there are conservatives elected from conservative districts and places, but they are NOT remotely the ones running the party and never ever advance up in the party structure. The GOP of PA leadership is basically the Country Club Republicans of a bye-gone era and they have no intention of changing. They will happily destroy a conservative and support a democrat rather that have a true conservative win a position of power.
Now, with that all said, TRUMP being on the ticket may be able to drag a less than GREAT candidate over the finish line on his coat tails in 24 in PA.. however given the state has done little to reign in the things that lead to the massive fraud in 2020, I am not sure what to expect out of PA this time. Trump will likely put up even bigger numbers than 2020, but since they let them steal 2020, don’t be surprised if its stolen again.
Much as I like your style, I disagree with ya here Kurt.
First, the Democrats are going to come out of the woodwork Trump or no Trump. Don’t think for one second they’ll go easier on you so long as the nominee is not Trump. That’s just RINO loser talk.
Second, we don’t need a bunch of soft squishy RINOs. We have far too many of those already. You might as well elect a Democrat if you’re going to vote RINO. I hope Kari Lake is busy occupying the Blair House as Trump’s VP but if not, I would wholeheartedly recommend her for the US Senate. She legitimately won in Arizona as everybody knows. The corrupt McCain machine had to engage in super duper overtime cheating to stop her. If the judges do their jobs a signature match check of the mail in ballots is going to show a huge number do not match. You can’t roll over and give RINOs what they want when they cheat. They must never get what they want. They must be driven out of the party.
Wha?
No way. It's actually 180 degrees opposite.
The rank and file still love him. Witness the rallies. It's the party elders and officianados who dislike him.
“Never underestimate the pubbies ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”
There’s a RED WAVE fo sho! Those dimocrats is scared to death. We’re taking the house by several dozen seats and and a 55 seat majority in the senate.
Yeah right.......
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