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Ukraine's breach of Russian defenses could be short-lived — analysts predict a hard and fast counterstrike
Business Insider via Yahoo ^ | September 22nd, 2023 | Sophia Ankel,Mia Jankowicz,Thibault Spirlet

Posted on 09/22/2023 9:40:17 AM PDT by Mariner

Ukraine breached Russia's defensive line on Wednesday and was able to deploy vehicles past it.

It was a major achievement, but analysts said Russia would respond with a harsh counterattack.

Even if Ukraine holds, it still has more defenses to overcome, they noted.

Russia will strike hard and fast in a counterattack against Ukrainian troops who breached its main defensive line with armored vehicles this week, analysts told Insider.

Ukraine took a major step forward Wednesday, seeming to push past a fierce defensive line in the southest of the country with vehicles for the first time.

Ukraine breached the area near the village of Verbove in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. It was a major dent in the so-called "Surovikin Line", but there are more layers of defense to go.

Ukraine still has a hard fight ahead, experts on the war told Insider.

Marina Miron, a researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, was one.

"There is about a mile to the actual village of Verbove, which means Ukrainian soldiers will have to cross open fields and face Russian artillery fire and Russian drones," she told Insider.

(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 3days2kyiv; accordingtoplan; botchedinvasion; neoconsululate; putin; russia
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The much touted "big breakthrough" is little more than theater put on by ISW and Ukraine...for the US Congress.
1 posted on 09/22/2023 9:40:17 AM PDT by Mariner
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To: Mariner

Is Mia Jankowicz related to Nina?


2 posted on 09/22/2023 9:49:16 AM PDT by FamiliarFace (I got my own way of livin' But everything gets done With a southern accent Where I come from. TPetty)
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To: Mariner

The troops used to do this were fodder for Zel’s new American fundraising junket.

“See, we had a ‘breakthrough,’ send more gazillions.”


3 posted on 09/22/2023 9:51:20 AM PDT by AAABEST ( NY/DC/CA media/political/military industrial complex DELENDA EST)
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To: All

I’m no military historian - but this sounds a lot like the German counter-attacks at Kursk during WWII. The Russians had multiple layers of defense and had no qualms about killing as many of their soldiers as possible as long as they bled the Germans just as bad.

I foresaw this about a year ago. I pictured the Russians would try to bleed the Ukrainian armed forces as much as possible. Eventually, Ukraine would be incapable of mounting any offense.

I totally get it that the Ukes want to push the Russians off their territory - but it know appears as though that may not be possible. they may wish to establish a more hit and run defense where they can keep the Russians at bay with smaller and sharper strikes.


4 posted on 09/22/2023 9:51:44 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: Mariner

“We are pushing through,” an unnamed Ukrainian officer involved in the fighting told the outlet. “We are destroying them. But the price …”


5 posted on 09/22/2023 9:55:54 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

Maybe “It’s a Trap!”


6 posted on 09/22/2023 9:57:33 AM PDT by McGruff (Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up - Barack Obama)
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To: Mariner
Don't worry, Speedster and Minister of Death Mom have ensured us that the "Ruzzians" are being defeated every day now for the past year and a half... How could they be wrong?

Everyone wants to get a picture of Zelensky especially Zelensky.

7 posted on 09/22/2023 9:58:59 AM PDT by fireman15 (Irritating people are the grit from which we fashion our pearl. I provide the grit. You'e Welcome.)
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To: Mariner

I have first hand account that uke units are convalescing in U.S. bases in Germany with casualty rates 50-80%

It’s a travesty

And unsustainable

Just to make Putin bleed a little as they transform our world into their vision of utopia with they as elites above the morass of the new man

Classic messianic humanism same as the same bunch had worshipped for generations now


8 posted on 09/22/2023 10:01:31 AM PDT by wardaddy (Why so many nevertrumpers with early sign ups and no posting history till now? Zot them PTB)
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To: MplsSteve

I think the analogy is apt. Although im unsure if the Russians have the potential to launch a major counterattack like the Red Army did in ‘44.

As a side note I listened to the Military Summary channel this morning and he said the Ukr attacks in their one “breakthrough” (not true really has they only broke the first line) have became “suicidal”.

He explained this is what the Ukr have to do:
1.Move their forces from many km away under drone attack, some missile.
2. Get onto secondary roads and fields as they get closer and receive long range arty attacks.
3. At 4 km they are under such heavy bombardment the vehicles must DISGORGE the infantry or be destroyed
4. The infantry must now run, scramble and crawl 4 km carrying ammo, water and weapons arriving at the actual line exhausted!
5. They die, or are wounded and/or retreat.

Repeat and rinse.

Awful.


9 posted on 09/22/2023 10:03:49 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: wardaddy
Its been "unsustainable" for a year and a half.

The Vietnamese lost 20 to one in manpower against the USA and still lost the war.

In this near peer conflict, it is probable casualties are roughly equal on both sides.

10 posted on 09/22/2023 10:05:03 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: marktwain

To make clear, the Vietnamese lost 20 to 1 in manpower against the USA and still won the war against the USA.


11 posted on 09/22/2023 10:06:15 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: Mariner

From the article: “Ukraine breached Russia’s defensive line (singular) on Wednesday and was able to deploy vehicles past it.”

Note the title of the article specifies ‘...breach of Russian defenses...’ (plural)

The Russians had 3 defensive lines to start this thing and when the Ukrainians started making some headway through one of them (tactic: use human sacrifices), the Russians began laying in a 4th line of defenses so that when the Ukrainians broke through a line (singular) there would be more lines of defenses (plural) preventing them from engaging the enemy.

Also, while the Ukrainians were working on that singular line, the Russians mined their retreat path. It’s gory business. This soundbyte is for money as Zelensky tours the world with his hand out. Remember that magazine cover with his wife (beard?) and a pile of money on the table?


12 posted on 09/22/2023 10:10:07 AM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
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To: Mariner

Admiral Victor Sokolov, Commander of the Black Sea fleet had a run in with a Storm Shadow. He did not survive.


13 posted on 09/22/2023 10:11:47 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
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To: Mariner

Welcome to the kill zone Ukrainian scum. Burn in hell.


14 posted on 09/22/2023 10:12:29 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA (Vacate the chair. Shutter the government until it can be correctly defunded.)
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To: MplsSteve
I foresaw this about a year ago. I pictured the Russians would try to bleed the Ukrainian armed forces as much as possible. Eventually, Ukraine would be incapable of mounting any offense.

From what I am hearing, the slow pace of the Ukie advance is because the Ruskies always counter attack. This causes massive Ruskie losses since they favor human waves of fresh meat. The whole idea is that with a larger population, Russia can withstand greater losses than Ukraine. Eventually, that could lead to another Russian Revolution like 1917.
15 posted on 09/22/2023 10:12:33 AM PDT by Dr. Franklin ("A republic, if you can keep it." )
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To: Mariner
I think there is a misuse of the term “ breach” from a military standpoint. From Victoria Nuland’s family owned “ Institute for the Study of War” this could be due to ignorance or intentional overhype.

“Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 @witte_sergei When we say a line is beached, we don’t mean that a small infantry unit reconnoitered it.

We mean a gap forced open, wide and stable enough for combat assets and sustainment to continually flow through. This requires significant combat power and engineering work.

” Defense in Depth is another concept they seem to be overlooking as they ululate. The main body of Russian reinforcements is still 2-3 echelons down the map, and the Ukes as the attackers need a 3:1 advantage to take them on by the time they reach that point …not happening. The Uke units, under Russian artillery ATGMs, drones, FAB attacks……are bleeding…literally.

16 posted on 09/22/2023 10:17:46 AM PDT by silverleaf (Inside Every Progressive Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out” —David Horowitz)
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To: Mariner

The missile hit the Russian Black Sea Fleet commander’s freaking office while he was having a meeting ! LOL!


17 posted on 09/22/2023 10:18:40 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
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To: Mariner

I wonder if there is a way to accelerate the killing, to waste more human lives in this stupid, seemingly endless struggle. If we could kill faster maybe we could get to the end of this absurdity quicker.


18 posted on 09/22/2023 10:19:55 AM PDT by The Louiswu (Pray for Peace in the world.)
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To: Mariner

Keep it up boys! Just a little bit longer, until that $25 billion check to the IMF and Clinton Foundation clears!


19 posted on 09/22/2023 10:21:24 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Mariner

The first line of defense is meant to be broken. That allows the Ukes into the Russian designed killing zones. The Ukes haven’t been cooperating by even getting that far.


20 posted on 09/22/2023 10:21:29 AM PDT by hardspunned (Former DC GOP globalist stooge)
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