I think Sinema will clobber her.
She could, in a 2-way race, I think you would be correct, in a 3-way race Lake could win.
What I’m a little surprised about is how much Gallego and Lake are going at each other while rarely mentioning the incumbent and her voting record.
It won't even be close
Sinema will be in a distant third, behind Gallego and Gov-elect Lake.