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The Great Medicaid Unwinding
Reaon ^ | 11.17.2023 | Markus Bjoerkheim

Posted on 11/20/2023 1:33:36 PM PST by nickcarraway

The ongoing rollback of Medicaid is a rare step to reverse the “ratcheting growth” of our social safety net.

A "great unwinding" is very much underway in Medicaid programs nationwide, representing the most notable reversal of a government expansion since the welfare reforms of the 1990s.

From March 2020 to March 2023, Medicaid enrollment soared by more than 22 million people, a surge even larger than the Medicaid expansions brought on by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This was primarily due to "continuous coverage" provisions in the coronavirus response that prevented states from conducting routine eligibility reviews—what bureaucrats call the redetermination process—which would ordinarily remove recipients who no longer qualify based on the objective, pre-established standards of need. At its recent peak, Medicaid covered almost 95 million Americans, a far cry from the original intent of protecting the most vulnerable.

This expansion of Medicaid was never meant to be permanent. Yet, in the context of a growing acceptance among Americans of broader welfare coverage and the popularity of prior Medicaid expansions—since 2014, 40 states and the District of Columbia have expanded under ACA provisions—it seemed like a plausible scenario, especially if you're familiar with the work of economist Robert Higgs.

In 1987's "Crisis and Leviathan," Higgs showed how government expands during crises but often fails to retract fully once the crisis passes, leading to an ever larger state. The pandemic-era growth of Medicaid risked becoming a textbook case of this "ratchet effect," potentially transforming temporary relief measures into permanent entitlements.

A few months have passed since most states restarted redeterminations in June and July. While it's still early—the unwinding is expected to take 12 to 14 months—the data that's come in already defies the Higgsian prediction: 10.6 million people have been removed from Medicaid, an unprecedented number and orders of magnitude greater than any previous episode in its history. Barring major policy changes, we can expect most, if not all, of the pandemic-era growth in our largest safety-net program to be rolled back in the coming months.

Although this might be the first you're hearing of it, and some mainstream reports frame the process as "chaos," this development is, broadly speaking, worth celebrating. First, many of the estimated 18 million ineligible recipients already have employer-sponsored insurance or are eligible for alternate sources of health insurance. While states will inevitably make mistakes in carrying out tens of millions of redeterminations, safeguards are in place to re-enroll and retroactively cover eligible recipients who fall through the cracks.

Second, the cost of having those 18 million ineligible people on Medicaid is around $80 billion per year. It's an end to a subsidy that primarily benefits insurance companies who currently receive monthly membership fees for ineligible recipients who incur little or no health care costs, or who use employer-sponsored insurance when they do.

Third and more importantly, we should celebrate the economic progress of millions of Americans who are no longer eligible for Medicaid because they earn more than their state's eligibility limit. The unwinding, therefore, is not just about cost savings. It represents the preservation of our long-held commitment to a safety net designed for those in genuine need, rather than a blanket provision that benefits politically connected industries.

As my colleagues Kofi Ampaabeng, Liam Sigaud, and I found, expanding Medicaid to more people crowds out the care available to those already enrolled. There is good reason to believe the unwinding will improve access to care for the most vulnerable enrollees, especially in areas where Medicaid providers are in chronically short supply.

It's easy to dismiss the great unwinding as merely an end to temporary policies in response to a crisis that's long passed. Yet, as you remove your shoes in an airport this holiday season, you'll be vividly reminded of how "temporary" policies can permanently shape our society. Thus, the great unwinding of Medicaid is something to be thankful for, even a few years overdue.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aliens; healthcare; illegals; medicaid
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1 posted on 11/20/2023 1:33:36 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

BS, they cut it back to give it to illegals.


2 posted on 11/20/2023 1:38:27 PM PST by dforest
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To: nickcarraway
... Second, the cost of having those 18 million ineligible people on Medicaid is around $80 billion per year. It's an end to a subsidy that primarily benefits insurance companies who currently receive monthly membership fees for ineligible recipients who incur little or no health care costs, or who use employer-sponsored insurance when they do...

Do Medicaid payments not go directly from government coffers to the provider? I've never heard of Medicaid "membership fees" to insurance companies. Is that something cooked up as part of Obamacare?

3 posted on 11/20/2023 1:45:53 PM PST by gloryblaze
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To: nickcarraway

Article:

“as you remove your shoes in an airport this holiday season”

Nope.

If relatives want to see me they can take off their shoes. They know where to find me.


4 posted on 11/20/2023 1:51:09 PM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: gloryblaze

“Do Medicaid payments not go directly from government coffers to the provider?”

You are correct—and the article was incorrect for suggesting otherwise.


5 posted on 11/20/2023 1:55:12 PM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: nickcarraway

Every illegal child (under 18) and every illegal pregnant woman are eligible for full Medicaid, including full dental care for illegal children.

Plus - 100% of illegals are eligible for Emergency Room treatment.

The ER illegals get billed, but very few illegals pay a dime for treatment, or medication.


6 posted on 11/20/2023 1:58:17 PM PST by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: nickcarraway

Remember when Obama was pushing the states to basically extend Medicade to everyone to make his healthcare takeover fly? Now we get to see the results of that.


7 posted on 11/20/2023 1:58:54 PM PST by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
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To: cgbg
What if a Medicaid client enrolls for 100% of their health care from a major provider, like Kaiser Permanente?

Does that generate monthly Medicaid premiums?

8 posted on 11/20/2023 2:11:38 PM PST by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: zeestephen
...Medicaid premiums...

That is an oxymoron, or always has been.

9 posted on 11/20/2023 2:19:38 PM PST by gloryblaze
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To: cgbg

Medicaid has “management” companies such as CHPW and Molina in my own state that administer the plans and, in fact, receive payments as the article suggest and in turn pay providers.


10 posted on 11/20/2023 2:21:48 PM PST by steve86 (Numquam accusatus, numquam ad curiam ibit, numquam ad carcerem™)
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To: zeestephen

While Medicare Advantage insurers go out of their way to deny valid claims to their insured.


11 posted on 11/20/2023 2:35:39 PM PST by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
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To: steve86
Medicaid has “management” companies such as CHPW and Molina in my own state that administer the plans and, in fact, receive payments as the article suggest and in turn pay providers.

I knew Medicare had gotten wedded to insurance companies, ... but it looks as though Medicaid is following suit. That will insure that weaning people from the dole will really be uphill.

12 posted on 11/20/2023 2:39:07 PM PST by gloryblaze
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To: dforest

Be careful. Biden is allowing illegals to get on SS disability. So with one hand they say we are cutting Medicaid glut, with the other hand they are rapidly bankrupting SS disability.


13 posted on 11/20/2023 2:46:14 PM PST by Kaiser8408a (z)
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To: cgbg

No, the article in not incorrect. Many private insurance companies have DUAL PLANS for Medicare/Medicaid eligibles, so they manage that beneficiary and recieve the state and fed payment for doing so. ....ymmv


14 posted on 11/20/2023 3:03:41 PM PST by PalominoGuy ( )
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To: gloryblaze

The government contracts insurance companies to administer the medicaid program. They get paid per capita. That is the “membership fee” they are referring to, I believe


15 posted on 11/20/2023 3:16:56 PM PST by armydoc
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To: armydoc
The government contracts insurance companies to administer the medicaid program. They get paid per capita. That is the “membership fee” they are referring to, I believe.

That appears to be the case. I knew so for Medicare; otherwise, why are the Insurance companies courting the old folks with big health concerns and offering policies with "zero premiums?" That is, zero to the policyholder, some from the taxpayers, and severe limits to allowed charges.

What a mess.

16 posted on 11/20/2023 3:31:56 PM PST by gloryblaze
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To: gloryblaze

No lots of insurance Co pay for medicaid patients, yes a state will contract with a company to do the paying of said claims


17 posted on 11/20/2023 4:37:09 PM PST by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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To: zeestephen

No there are no medicaid premiums never have been


18 posted on 11/20/2023 4:38:38 PM PST by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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To: PalominoGuy

They are called special needs plans or SNP what Medicare does not pay the medicaid makes up for. Most if not all health insurance cos do this.

Been going on for over 30 years


19 posted on 11/20/2023 4:47:54 PM PST by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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To: texas booster

Nope they have to follow the same Medicare rules as regular Medicare, there is a letter process plus a time limit a provider must submit a claim period.


20 posted on 11/20/2023 4:49:34 PM PST by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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