The collapsing birthrate in the developed world

Homiletic and Pastoral Review | February 2001 | Fr John F. Kobler

[ex-snook]

The collapsing birthrate in the developed world
By John F. Kobler

A few years ago one of our Passionist retreat house directors told me he was thinking of using “The Culture of Death” as the theme for the forthcoming year’s retreat talks. However sympathetic I was to this important theme of John Paul II, I told him frankly he didn’t have the horses! At that time I did not think the generality of preachers had a realistic grasp of the complexities of this problem nor a comprehension of the entrenched cultural opposition to the Church’s teachings on sexual morality. I am happy to say that the situation is now changing. A large segment of the secular culture is becoming aware of a serious demographic crisis, especially in the developed world. I would like to list some of the new data and insights reinforcing this changing outlook.

Peter F. Drucker, as you know, is the leading management theorist in the U. S. One of his latest books is Management Challenges for the 21st Century (NY: HarperBusiness, 1999). His second chapter (pp. 44-50) starts out: “The most important single new certainty — if only because there is no precedent for it in all of history — is the collapsing birthrate in the developed world.” Drucker lists the general figures for Western and Central Europe (e. g., the mostly Catholic countries of Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and Italy), and Japan. All of these nations are drifting toward collective suicide by the end of the 21st century. Italy is the nation at present most given to contraceptive practices!

In his book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (NY: Simon & Schuster, 1996), Samuel P. Huntington offers some comparative population growth figures between Christianity and Islam (pp. 65-66) and concludes:

In the long run, however, Mohammed wins out. Christianity spreads primarily by conversion. Islam by conversion and reproduction. The percentage of Christians in the world peaked at about 30 percent in the 1980s, leveled off, is now declining, and will probably approximate about 25 percent of the world population by 2025. As a result of their extremely high rates of population growth (see chapter 5), the proportion of Muslims in the world will continue to increase dramatically, amounting to 20 percent of the world’s population about the turn of the century, surpassing the number of Christians some years later, and probably accounting for about 30 percent of the world’s population by 2025.

It is good to recall that Islam today is going through a great religious resurgence of a virulent anti-Western nature, and in some areas of a violent anti-Catholic nature. In chapter 12, “The West, Civilizations, and Civilization,” Huntington has some sobering and instructive observations on the need for “Renewal of the West” and the problems posed by multi-culturalism in the United States.

 

I am aware that the above sources are contested on occasion. Therefore, I recommend an even more authoritative source: Replacement Migration: Is it A Solution to Declining and Aging Populations?, published by the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat (ESA/P/WP.160, 21 March 2000, English only). This lengthy brochure (pp. viii, 143) studies the dwindling populations of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Europe, and the European Union. In a quite clinical and antiseptic way this study sums up the explosive challenges facing this collapsing birthrate (p. 95):

The new challenges being brought about by declining and aging populations will require objective, thorough and comprehensive reassessments of many established economic, social and political policies and programs. Such reassessments will need to incorporate a long-term perspective. Critical issues to be addressed in those reassessments would include:

1. the appropriate ages for retirement,
2. the levels, types and nature of retirement and health-care benefits for the elderly,
3. the labor-force participation,
4. the assessed amounts of contributions from workers and employers to support retirement and health-care benefits for the increasing elderly population, and
5. policies and programs relating to international migration, in particular replacement migration, and the integration of large numbers of recent migrants and their descendants.

In the light of the above demographic facts I believe that since 1968 Catholic theologians and moralists who have endorsed contraception have done a distinct disservice to the magisterium of the Church and the moral fibber of Catholics in general. More and more it is becoming evident that such theologians are isolating themselves from grassroots Catholic concerns and are largely talking to themselves in their university enclaves. A fine article by William Dean may be found in Criterion, a publication of The Divinity School of The University of Chicago, vol. 39:1 (Winter, 2000) 24-29, under the title, “The Voluntary Decline of Public Theologians.” Dean’s remarks aimed primarily at Protestant theologians apply in large part to the liberal elite of Catholic university theologians and moralists in the U. S.:

. . . the academic public intellectuals continued to comply with the university mindset and with their disciplinary colleagues around the country. What did it cost them when they glorified Mao Tse Tung or Che Guevera and allowed the university curriculum to be driven first by the counterculture and then by academic fashions? They did not need to depend on the public for their jobs or reputations, as the neoconservatives did. In fact, their jobs usually became safer and their reputations stronger when they shocked the public and belittled its patriotism. So, naturally, they felt little public pressure to reconsider their fundamental assumptions.

I know of only one Catholic demographer, Michel Schooyans, Professor of the Catholic University of Louvain-la-Neuve, who has grappled with the theme of “A World in Crisis,” and pointed out the present-day context and implications of the collapsing birthrate in the Western world. I became interested in Schooyans’ works because the crisis of the modern world is the larger context within which I view the pastoral rethinking of Vatican II. I must admit that, while I may have appreciated the philosophical antecedents of these problems, their concrete expression in Communism and Nazism, and Third World poverty problems, Schooyans opened my mind to the Totalitarian Trend of our Liberal Culture. Schooyans’ vision of the modern world is shaped by a deep Catholic faith and a profound scholarship. His ideas would give depth to any preacher of renewal today.

 

Three of Schooyans’ books have been translated into English: i. e., The Totalitarian Trend of Liberalism, The Gospel Confronting World Disorder, and The Demographic Crash: From Fatalism to Hope (forthcoming). All three books have been translated by Fr. John H. Miller, C.S.C, S.T.D., editor of the Social Justice Review in St. Louis. The books may be obtained from the Central Bureau, CCVA, 3835 Westminster Place, St. Louis, MO 63108. One of the outstanding qualities of Schooyans’ books is his familiarity with the data provided by international organizations (e. g., the UN) and governmental sources (e. g., U. S.). He also displays a profound acquaintance with the social encyclicals of the Holy See.

I would like to conclude by drawing attention to two issues deriving from the widespread contraceptive practices in the world today. Schooyans points out that much of the radical feminist movement is a modern version of the Marxist theme of class warfare. Lastly, Lionel Tiger, the Charles Darwin Professor of Anthropology at Rutgers University, has a powerful book, The Decline of Males (NY: Golden Books, 1999). Tiger attributes the massive changes in society between men and women to effective contraception, the cause of today’s “gender wars.”

I close in a lighter vein: due to the decline of males on campus a number of colleges have designated their male applicants as the new candidates for affirmative action!

[That Poppins Woman]

Translation for those following along at home, she doesn’t dare give an answer. At least one that is honest. So she doesn't give one. At least she doesn't lie about it, I suppose.

Was one requested? Let's look, shall we?

Would you have accepted the responsiblity of the soldiers on D-Day who gave up not only 'pursuit of happiness' but their own lives? Come to think of it, they would be better off without you - you'd head for the nearest 'legal' hole.

Nope. I don't think one was requested. I believe the question posed was rhetorical in nature, given the insulting answer given right after it.

If you want an answer, you'll have to ask REAL nice, now.

[JMJ333]

Snuffing out? And just how are they going to do that? Are they going to forcibly convert you? Your children? Are you saying that they are going to just all come over here on their WORK VISAS and breed you out? Define "snuffing out".

In case you haven't noticed, Christians are being murdered around the world more than ever before. In the Sudan 2 million black Christians have been slaughtered by Omar Bassir--In East Timor, muslims slaughtered 300,000 Catholics--In Iraq the moslems have slaughtered 3.5 million assyrian Christians--In India radical hindu's have slaughtered thousands of Catholic Priests and missionaries. I'm sure you're also aware of Chechnya, and the Balkans.

In case you haven't noticed, Christians are the only group of people left in America that it is okay to ridicule and demean. We are at war with people who hate western culture and are trying to wipe out Judeo-Christianity. When they do eclipse us--you will finally be able to live your life without us overbearing moralistic bloward Christians who are always telling others how to live their lives.

Really? And just how do I hold personal responsibility in low esteem? Justify your position

Are you pro-choice?

People like me? Really? Do define "people like me". And do attempt to be more specific than just --- oooooo the bad people.

Those who put *themselves* before everything else--Its all about *ME ME ME!*

Where is it going? In 50 years, Israel will be comprised primarily of those of Arab descent. In 50 years, if Corporate America keeps up its WORK VISA pace, the USA will be comprised primarily of 3rd worlders.

I am talking about our culture. Judeo-Christian culture, from which the country is based. If our base goes than so do human rights. Just look at other countries based on any pagan religion.

P.S. What the heck do you think America's obsession with Santy Claus is? Non paganism? What the heck do you think your children are going to be doing in a few short weeks? The feast of Samhain (pronounced sow-en) is a PAGAN festival. THE WITCH'S NEW YEAR!! Hello? Our Christian nation calls it Halloween.

If I gave you an explanation of why you're wrong, would you even listen? I doubt it.

[patent]

No, I don’t advocate passing laws to correct the moral decline, I advocate individuals voluntarily choosing to act in a moral fashion.

So does the Taliban. And your proposal is different from theirs, how?

That is entirely disingenuous and you know it. The Taliban passes laws governing everything, and they shoot you when you violate them. You are as dishonest as they come.

I have not once advocated imposing my moral vision on the unwilling. I challenge you to prove otherwise. Your propaganda is laid bare, prove it or go away.

From your current post: I advocate individuals voluntarily choosing to act in a moral fashion.

This moral fashion is, of course, in your image? Q.E.D.

This is your proof I have advocated imposing my moral vision on the unwilling? My stating I would prefer individuals voluntarily choosing to act? You are dishonest if you are going to claim that is my plea for more laws. Otherwise, you are just spinning, spinning, spinning rapidly out of control.

What a maroon. - quote from Bugs Bunny.

What an unhumorous maroon.

Call people names and then complain when they don’t laugh? Strange. Well, that and dishonest.

Cheers.

patent  +AMDG

[patent]

If you want an answer, you'll have to ask REAL nice, now.

You mean like you do? OK:

Provide an answer maroon.

How was that?

patent  +AMDG

[That Poppins Woman]

So, you consider dressing up in costumes and parading around begging for candy a proper celebration of a religious holiday?

Is there any mention of a day of prayer on the 31st as celebrated by Americans? Is there any mention of any "remembrance of the dead" by any of the American Christian nation on Halloween?

And what of that thief, Santy Claus? Is it proper that children anticipate his return, rather than celebrating the birth of our savior?

What a foul swill you have going there in your little cup ...

Revelation 17:4
The woman was clothed in purple and scarlet, and adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls, having in her hand a gold cup full of abominations and of the unclean things of her immorality,

[patent]

So, you consider dressing up in costumes and parading around begging for candy a proper celebration of a religious holiday?

Didn’t you call me humorless or something? There is nothing religious about trying so desperately to remove all fun from life. One can go celebrate and go pray, both can be religious and often are.

Is there any mention of a day of prayer on the 31st as celebrated by Americans? Is there any mention of any "remembrance of the dead" by any of the American Christian nation on Halloween?

Yes. Certainly in my house as in many others.

And what of that thief, Santy Claus? Is it proper that children anticipate his return, rather than celebrating the birth of our savior?

”rather than” definitely not, Christmas is Christ’s Mass, the return of our Lord and that is where the emphasis must be.

What a foul swill you have going there in your little cup ...

I admit the Mountain Dew isn’t that good for me but aren’t you going a bit overboard?

patent  +AMDG

[JMJ333]

For what its worth:

You're wrong about the issue regarding paganism. We replaced pagan holidays with holy days or saints feasts days to celebrate truth triumphing over falsehood. What comes to my mind for an example is the image of "Our Lady of Guadalupe."

When Mary appeared to Juan Diego, the same type of thing occured. Namely, the acceleration of the indigenous people throughout mexico. Six years after her appearance, 9 million aztec people had been baptized. Have you ever seen the tilma on which Our Lady is imprinted?

Her mantle has stars, gold sun rays, the moon and an angel. Each relates directly to some aspect of Aztec divinity. For example, the rays of the sun express the presence of the sun god qeutzacoatl. And that She is standing on the moon reminds the Nahuatl [aztecs] of the god of night. She is also being carried by an angel which further relates her to aztec divinity, since royalty and representatives of deities were carried by others.

I could go on about the artistic and technical explanations, but my point is that the symbolism spoke to the nahuatl of the 16th century. So did the events which surrounded the conversion of Pagans.

[TomSmedley]

Added incentive for larger Christian families. :)

Large American families are usually either traditional Catholic, Mormon, or home-schooling Protestant. We are in Category 3, and had to stop at 4, since they all came by short cut. I'm grateful for the ones we have, however, and am glad that people of conviction and achievement are out-breeding the terminal liberal generation.

[That Poppins Woman]

In case you haven't noticed, Christians are being murdered around the world more than ever before. .....

So on top of the 10+ year War on Terrorism we've just signed up for, and on top of the 30+ year War on Drugs costing us hundreds of billions of dollars, you're advocating we also start the War on Those Who Murder Christians? And you're paying for this, how? With whose tax dollars?

In case you haven't noticed, Christians are the only group of people left in America that it is okay to ridicule and demean.

I have no idea what this means. I am an equal opportunity disparaging curmudgeon.

We are at war with people who hate western culture and are trying to wipe out Judeo-Christianity. When they do eclipse us--

So, we've already lost the War on Terrorism we just declared, and (everyone knows) the War on Drugs is lost, and now your newly proposed War on Those Who Murder Christians is also a loss even before its begun? Oh, why don't we just all call Dr. Kevorkian?

you will finally be able to live your life without us overbearing moralistic bloward Christians who are always telling others how to live their lives.

I already live my life quite well, thank you, even with a few overbearing moralistic blowhard Christians as friends and family.

And just how do I hold personal responsibility in low esteem? Justify your position Are you pro-choice? Absolutely. I don't want to pay for everybody else's spawn.

Those who put *themselves* before everything else--Its all about *ME ME ME!*

You have heard it said that this is an age of moral crisis. You have said it yourself, half in fear, half in hope that the words had no meaning. You have cried that man's sins are destroying the world and you have cursed human nature for its unwillingness to practice the virtues you demanded. Since virtue, to you, consists of sacrifice, you have demanded more sacrifices at every successive disaster. In the name of a return to morality, you have sacrificed all those evils which you held as the cause of your plight. You have sacrificed justice to mercy. You have sacrificed independence to unity. You have sacrificed reason to faith. You have sacrificed wealth to need. You have sacrificed self-esteem to self-denial. You have sacrificed happiness to duty. ...

We are on strike against self-immolation. We are on strike against the creed of unearned rewards and unrewarded duties. We are on strike against the dogma that the pursuit of one's happiness is evil. We are on strike against the doctrine that life is guilt.

....I swear, by my life and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another to live for mine. -- John Galt, Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand.

I am talking about our culture. Judeo-Christian culture, from which the country is based. If our base goes than so do human rights.

Instead of moping around mourning the untimely predicted death of our culture, perhaps you might consider devoting a little energy to what the President called "stating our case".

If I gave you an explanation of why you're wrong, would you even listen? I doubt it.

Whatever.

[texlok]

>Today, a large family is an economic liability.

That is more true than most people would be willing to admit.

>It costs a great deal of money to rear children in an affluent society...

Not if your on welfare.

[TomSmedley]

Mohammed has been proven bologne... the Bible keeps on proving itself true. This place aint gonna be here in a few hundered years. End of thread.

Fundamentalism painted itself into a corner when it discarded the future 100 years ago. This contempt for the future might explain why the broadly evangelical folks have fewer children, support public education, lose 80% of their kids to secular humanism, and steadily lose credibility.

Thank God they are NOT on the leading edge of what God is doing today!

[ex-snook]

This was the original exchange which you ignored. Do you want to answer now?

YOU"Are we all saying that a free person in this country must subjugate their goals and dreams for their life, in order to fulfill a duty, one that is not their choice, but instead imposed upon them by a fearful society? "

ME. I hope you don't think those guys that landed on Normandy beach were nuts to sacrifice not only their future but their lives for something other than 'me'.

[That Poppins Woman]

P.S. re - Are you pro-choice?

Don't tell me you are one of those pro-lifers in name only who opposes government-funded fetal stem cell research, but doesn't make one sound about privately funded fetal stem cell research, and certainly doesn't adjust his 401K/investment strategy to avoid those companies, and doesn't change his family's prescriptions from those companies that do engage in it.

[That Poppins Woman]

I hope you don't think those guys that landed on Normandy beach were nuts to sacrifice not only their future but their lives for something other than 'me'.

No, I don't think they were nuts.

[JMJ333]

So on top of the 10+ year War on Terrorism we've just signed up for, and on top of the 30+ year War on Drugs costing us hundreds of billions of dollars, you're advocating we also start the War on Those Who Murder Christians? And you're paying for this, how? With whose tax dollars?

I see you like the bait and switch technique. Are the Christians being slaughtered or not? Or can you be bothered with that information?

And just how do I hold personal responsibility in low esteem? Justify your position Are you pro-choice? Absolutely. I don't want to pay for everybody else's spawn.

Thanks for being honest. Have a good afternoon. Regards.

[JMJ333]

P.S. re - Are you pro-choice?

Don't tell me you are one of those pro-lifers in name only who opposes government-funded fetal stem cell research, but doesn't make one sound about privately funded fetal stem cell research, and certainly doesn't adjust his 401K/investment strategy to avoid those companies, and doesn't change his family's prescriptions from those companies that do engage in it.

I oppose all of the above plus Fertility clinics. Regards.

[Campion]

Re your post #85 ... is that kind of ugly anti-Catholic bigotry the norm in your circles?

How you any different from the Ku Klux Klan?

(If you don't like being compared to the KKK, maybe you should think twice before comparing others to the Taliban and the Chicoms.)

[ex-snook]

YOU: "Are we all saying that a free person in this country must subjugate their goals and dreams for their life, in order to fulfill a duty, one that is not their choice, but instead imposed upon them by a fearful society?"

ME: I hope you don't think those guys that landed on Normandy beach were nuts to sacrifice not only their future but their lives for something other than 'me'.

YOU No, I don't think they were nuts.

Is that an agreement that there are things more important than 'me'? If so, you are better than you are showing. If it is just being slippery, you have found a 'hole' to hide in.

[antidisestablishment]

Dittos on cat 3, but I have 11. :)

Blessed is the man whose quiver is full of them. They will not be put to shame when they contend with their enemies in the gate.

God bless families — America's strength.

[sendtoscott]

Real demographic change comes from the bottom up.

I'm not sure you can get pregnant that way. :-)