Posted on 11/18/2001 1:38:32 PM PST by codebreaker
If the devices were old and in need of a tritium recharge, a Russian in need of some cash would be tempted to sell them to the OBL operatives, "knowing" that the devices were duds and could not be used. It is possible even that the OBL operatives did not identify themselves as such, but rather claimed to be Pakistani agents, trying to scrounge up as much fissile material that they could to recycle into their own bomb program. The Russian might have figured that the Pakistanis already had the bomb anyway, and that by helping them to even up the balance with the Indians he might actually be doing the world a favor.
What he wouldn't have known is that OBL operatives (again possibly claiming to be Pakistani agents) would also be talking to other cash-strapped Russians about purchasing a fresh supply of tritium.
This is why it is credible to think that they might have actually sold them -- they thought they were taking in a sucker.
Tritium is VERY expensive and very hard to come by. My biggest fear is that Al Qaeda could have cut a deal with Pakistan to represent them as middlemen in obtaining a supply from Russia for Pakistan's nuclear program. Pakistan is trying to build as many nukes as possible as quickly as possible, and tritium is surely a key limiting factor -- perhaps THE limiting factor. Surely Pakistan would like to obtain a supplemental supply and would pay well for it. At the same time, it would be advantageous to use a middleman so that there would be some deniability. If Al Qaeda operated in such a role, it would be very easy for them to skim off a little of the tritium to use for their own purposes. If this happened, we are in deep danger.
Not so frequently as every few weeks, but every few years, yes. Half life is around 10 years or so. I don't believe that they don't need to recharge the SLBMs while they are at sea for months at a time, for example.
If the story implies that these were obtained by OBL no later than 1998, then they might possibly need a recharge by now. My guess is that they had not been recharged for many years when OBL bought them -- those who sold them to him knew that they would be duds. If OBL has procured some relatively fresh tritium within the past 2-3 years, we are in deep danger.
and glass over that whole region.
get a grip.
Why don't you get a grip man. That is what OBL wants. Or don't you follow current events.
Dontcha just love how people shoot the messenger on these forums?
They used up a few box cutters and nineteen out of who-knows-how-many hundreds or thousands of fanatical Islamic zealots. The key to both conventional and unconventional warfare is SUSTAINED ATTACK. Even a blitzkrieg only works if the initial shock is followed up in a sustained way.
No, 9/11 was only the opening salvo. It is extremely naive, wishful thinking to assume otherwise.
Sorry to break the news to you about your husband. ;-)
There are plenty of reasons why OBL would use his nuclear arsenal last. We discussed them in a thread titled: "Why Bin Laden Would Use Nuclear Weapons Last" Whatever the next date of terror is to be you can be sure that it is coming. Notice that the administration is always very careful to say that the action that we have undertaken in Afghanistan will NOT "stop what is in the can" or "stop what is in the pipe." Those operations have been planned for many years, financed and are already underway. The operatives will stick to their schedules no matter what happens in Afghanistan or to OBL.
Another thing. If you want to know whether or not the Administration thinks that OBL has nuclear capability don't watch their lips: "We don't believe he does at this time" Watch their actions. They never allow Cheney and Bush in the same city at the same time. What do people think this is to prevent? To keep them from reading the same Antrhax mail?
Total, WTC or Hiroshima-style destruction, and 75-100% casualties, perhaps a few blocks up to 1/2 mile.
Substantial (50-75%) building losses due to fire & structural damage (i.e., quite a few buildings may have to be condemned, torn down and rebuilt), and 50-75% casualties, perhaps a 1/2-1 mile radius.
Considerable (25-50%) building losses due to fire & structural damage (i.e., extensive repairs required to most buildings), and 25-50% casualties, perhaps a 1 - 2 mile radius.
Most buildings survive with only minor damage (windows), 5-20% casualties limited mostly to those caught out in the open, perhaps a 2-3 mile radius.
Minor structural damage and small percentage of casualties (many cases of eyesight damage or loss, for example) in a 3-10 mile radius.
Some people get sick, and a small but elevated percentage eventually die due to radiation sickness, cancer, etc., downwind of ground zero.
Remember that quite a few of the buildings nearby that are not demolished by the blast will be finished off by fire. No city has a sufficiently large fire department to respond to all the fires that will be set off by a nuclear detonation anywhere within its borders. This can include wood frame houses up to a mile or more from ground zero, although the fact that with terrorists it would almost surely be a ground burst works to limit this effect.
Frankly, it is sheer COGNITIVE DISSONANCE for me to deal with the RAW HATRED and murderous glee and love of DEATH that I see exhibited in these barbaric savages.
I know that "expert military talking heads" have also claimed that OBL would have used nukes on 911 IF he had them....
I cannot say anything like THAT with assurity and certainty myself, as truly, these al-Qaeda goons are so divorced and contrary to anything I personally know - excepting perhaps, casual reading about clinical psychopathology and many years ago I read a whole slew of books about cults.
The post of mine that you reference shows that although I am very accustomed to the VIEW that OBL could not possibly have nukes ready to boom in this beautiful country... that I nonetheless remain open to the possibility, as there is, I feel, NO way to rationally predict the future actions of a mad "holyman" who is a madhi-WANNABEE - and who am I to delve into his apocalyptic messianic PSYCHOSIS..... ? [_grin_]
SLBMs can carry larger warheads, which don't need as much (or perhaps any -- I don't know the details beyond what is obvious to anyone familiar with nuclear physics, and wouldn't say if I did) tritium kick-starting.
U.S. Nuclear Cleric Insists 20,000 "Non-suitcase Nukes" ready for action in ________, ________,________,________, and ________!!
Funny you should say this. I was just outside taking a smoke break when I looked up and saw a small single engine plane making its way from our local commuter airport. I thought to myself. Wouln't it be easy to maximize the destruction by detonating a nuclear device above the intended target using a small plane? Espescially given these terrorist fascination with airplanes.
Out of curiosity what could we expect from a .5 - 2 kiloton AIRBURST over the intended target? Could we expect an electromagnetic pulse? If so how much damage would the pulse do and how far in every direction would it travel?
No...
...they are not in the United States.
Naughty.. Naughty.. You are superimposing Western thinking and logic onto a Mid Eastern terrorist organization. No. They will maintain operational security. If they have been planning such a terrorist attack (and there is every reason to believe that they are) they will wait until the predetermined time. They will not give in to the temptation to strike ahead of schedule.
And that is why they had to hijack planes to crash into the WTC, right?
Yawn.
More faulty logic. Why crash planes into the WTC? Why not? If you have the capability to strike at your enemy without revealing your hole card then why not do so?
Unfortunately this is not true. You don't understand the technology or the physics.
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