War on terror worsens war on drugs: Opium production flourishes after defeat of Taliban

War on terror worsens war on drugs
Opium production flourishes after defeat of Taliban

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The downfall of Afghanistan's ruling Taliban and the rise of Northern Alliance forces have led to a resumption in opium cultivation in the country. The shift in control over the drug trade will alter trafficking patterns, bolstering the opium trade through Central Asia to Russia and increasing the quantity of heroin and morphine destined for Europe and the United States.

Opium production is once again flourishing in Afghanistan following the defeat of the Taliban by the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance forces. In July 2000 the Taliban outlawed the cultivation of poppy plants, from which opium is derived. The ban caused a 96 percent drop in opium production, from a peak of more than 1 million pounds in 1999 to 40,600 pounds in 2001, according to the U.N. Drug Control Program.

But the change in who controls Afghanistan also means a shift in who controls the country's drug trade. The Northern Alliance is stepping up drug production in areas it holds, and recent reports indicate that planting of poppy seeds for next year's spring harvest has already begun. Trafficking patterns will also be altered, with more opium likely to transit through Central Asian states to Russia. This will boost the quantity of opium-based drugs, such as heroin and morphine, destined for Europe and the United States.

The greater availability will lower prices for such narcotics, increasing usage in the West and quickly leading to more violence and crime. A surge in production will also prompt traffickers to seek more markets. Because the European market is well-established and easily saturated, drug traffickers and criminal syndicates such as the Russia mafia will try to expand their position in less-exploited markets such as the United States.

Afghanistan is one of the world's single-largest producers of opium and accounted for nearly 40 percent of global production in the late 1990s, according to the CIA. Production under the Taliban occurred largely in southern and central Afghanistan. Most of the opium was produced in the Helmand, Kandahar, Oruzgan, Nangarhar and Badakhshan provinces, which are all now in the hands of anti-Taliban or Northern Alliance forces.

Routes established through cooperation between the Taliban and traffickers in Pakistan and Iran resulted in the transiting of much of the country's opium through Iran, the Persian Gulf states, Turkey and the Balkans before reaching European markets. Over the past decade, another route from Afghanistan – aimed at tapping the American market – was established via East African countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda before reaching the United States.

But with local warlords and chieftains associated with the Northern Alliance now in control of the major drug-producing regions, use of the Taliban-favored southern routes through Pakistan will take a hit while northern routes will see more drug trafficking.

Northern Alliance warlords will want to reward their allies to the north by sending business their way, and this will heighten traffic through Central Asia directly to Russia. According to Russian intelligence officers quoted by the BBC, traffickers in Tajikistan receive narcotics from areas under the control of the Northern Alliance. They then pass the drugs to Russian border guards, who in turn transfer them by air to Russia.

Organized criminal gangs in Tajikistan and other Central Asian states are thought to work closely with the Russian mafia. The enrichment of the mafia through a rise in Afghanistan's heroin trade will create a host of law enforcement problems for Moscow.

A higher supply of opium products and lower purchase prices will create more addicts, rival gangs may turn to violence to resolve competition, and the corruption among government officials will skyrocket. Such impacts will not be felt only in Russia and the saturated European markets. The shift in trafficking patterns for Afghan drugs will also threaten law and order in the United States.

Although heroin is available in America, it is not widely used, according to a report by the U.S. Justice Department's National Drug Intelligence Center. The quality and the quantity of heroin now coming into the United States both are low, making it expensive and more dangerous than other drugs such as cocaine. But the new trafficking patterns may change that.

The Russian mafia is known to have well-established connections with organized crime throughout the world, including drug traffickers in the Balkans and South America. These connections have already helped bring Colombian cocaine to Russia in exchange for weapons and cash. Russian mafia connections with Colombian and Mexican drug cartels may now help bring Afghan heroin to the United States.

There is ample evidence to suggest Russian organized crime has established working relationships with Colombian traffickers. The discovery in Bogota last year of a submarine carrying Russian documents and instruction manuals and capable of transporting huge amounts of cocaine undetected suggests the Russian mafia was involved in its construction.

The United States is an attractive alternative market for heroin and morphine. It is wealthy and has more current and potential users who can fund their habits. And the opium-derived products now available on the U.S. market are for the most part lower-quality Mexican brown heroin rather than the purer white Afghan heroin.

Transporting opium products from southwest Asia to the United States remains a logistical challenge. However, the attractiveness of the U.S. market will encourage some entrepreneurial traffickers to take the added risks.

U.S. policy makers and drug-enforcement groups are already discussing ways to prevent a resurgence of Afghanistan's drug trade. U.S. counter-narcotics officials are hoping to make anti-drug measures – such as the planting of alternative crops – a precondition for any future Afghan government to receive humanitarian aid, according to The Associated Press Worldstream Nov. 25.

The United Nations is also gearing up to combat the problem. A delegation of U.N. anti-narcotics experts were recently sent to Afghanistan to monitor drug-trafficking patterns along the country's northern border with Tajikistan, Itar-Tass reported Nov. 23.

The participation of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan's opium production creates a public relations nightmare for the United States, which backed the opposition forces in order to oust the Taliban. Washington will find it problematic to support leaders known to rely on the drug trade to fund military campaigns.

A larger issue, however, is the impact that a resurgence in the cultivation and trafficking of Afghan heroin will have on the West's never-ending quest to combat the drug trade. The United States scored an important victory in its war against Osama bin Laden's al Qaida network with the collapse of the Taliban. By bringing an end to the harsh regime, Washington deprived al Qaida of sanctuary.

But it also removed the only prohibitions against opium cultivation in Afghanistan that reduced drug production. Washington may be winning the war on terrorism, but in doing so, it may have opened a new front in the war on drugs.

Opium production is once again flourishing in Afghanistan following the defeat of the Taliban by the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance forces.

The NA only took over a week ago. I didn't realize poppy grew that fast, in the late fall no less!

This is a little premature, to say the least.

Probably the poppys were there all the time. The Taliban might have had a different "customer". The crop may be directed by the Northern Allience where Stratfor says they're going.

Maybe it isn't fast growing poppys afterall.

It's probably not 'flourishing fields' so much as it is pilfering of unguarded warehouses.

The Taliban had the same customers ultimately... but the middle men were evidently al-Qeada, who basically held a monopoly. The Taliban made some gestures at destroying some fields for the purposes of looking 'legit,' but confiscated opium at will or took a cut in order to overlook a field- and stored it up so that they could control the price. They were in no hurry to destroy the stuff once it entered their warehouses. Leaders took control of choice ground in Afghanistan from aleged 'enemies' as well, and it is doubtful anyone enforced the no-grow rules on them. When the price on the commodity was up, they opened the warehouses and sold it, through their conduits into Europe. The al-Qeada are affiliated with Maddie Albright's friends- the KLA- in the Balkans, who were funded by sales of the stuff in Europe.

What is most likely to happen now is the opium prices will fall because the stuff will be easier to get. Cheaper opium might increase drug use in other countries, but that's about it. More Afghans might get hooked too, if there aren't Taliban police around to beat the addicts.

Probably the poppys were there all the time. The Taliban might have had a different "customer". The crop may be directed by the Northern Allience where Stratfor says they're going.

Maybe it isn't fast growing poppys afterall.

Then the entire article is BS. It specifically states; " The ban caused a 96 percent drop in opium production, from a peak of more than 1 million pounds in 1999 to 40,600 pounds in 2001, according to the U.N. Drug Control Program. "

So if they are wrong about the opium being there, why should we believe they know who is growing it or where it is going?

War on terror worsens war on drugs

Actually, the War on Drugs hampered the War on Terror when the U.S. Government gave millions of our hard earned dollars to the Taliban to thank them for cracking down on the freedom of Afghanistan's farmers to produce the crops with the highest market values. Needless to say, the Taliban didn't use their Drug Nazi dollars to compensate the poor poppy farmers.

By the way, don't forget that unlike marijuana, the DEA acknowledges the efficacy of opiates in medicine. It's not the poppy farmers' fault that the American/UN War on Drugs encourages the production of highly concentrated, poorly quality controlled substances (eg. mainlineable heroin) rather than the less dangerous types (eg. opium).

Remember that the war on drugs hinders the war on terrorism because the war on drugs is one of the major ways that terrorists fund themselves. If we did away with the war on (some) drugs, then much of the terrorists funding would dry up.

There was almost no organized crime in this country until prohibition. Prohibition increased murder rates by double. Immediatly after prohibition, murder rates fell by half, staying fairly low until we got the war on drugs moving right along. Both Prohibition and the War on Drugs have been disasters for America.

STRATFOR often has some insight, but they absolutely A$$ BACKWARDS on this issue.

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