Analysis: 20 factors that will change PCs in 2002

CNN.com Sci-Tech / PC World.com ^ | December 25, 2001 Posted: 9:18 a.m. EST (1418 GMT) | Daniel Tynan

[MississippiMan]

The open sourcers will eventually take massive market share away from ms...

Ain't gonna happen and the open sourcers themselves are the reason why. Much of the OS community views it as a private club for the geeky ultra-smart only and they have zero interest in making it a serious DESKTOP alternative to MS. Linux will continue to be a great server platform and a toy for hardcore geeks. Nothing more. Microsoft won the operating system wars and they're as over as the battle between VHS and Betamax.

MM

[Zon]

When you see that a colleague is online, you can set up a conference or work session instantly -- no more telephone or e-mail tag.

I remember Jim Barksdale doing a key note presentation at Jupiter Communications back in 95 saying that he saw the Internet becoming as unencumbered as two people sitting on a park bench engaged in conversation. When I read the above I thought of how that might happen on FreeRepublic and elsewhere on the WWW.

An example... most people have an IM# signature accessed via their screen name (pop-up menu). Select the person's IM# you want to talk to and start talking. At the other end the person is signaled who the caller is (caller ID) and a subject line. He or she decides whether to respond. If yes a small window opens and you see the caller. And away you go. Conference calls would be just as easy. And the usually functions; block caller (nobody wants Dane and his ilk hounding you), ping caller list (address book) making it possible to engage people that aren't even at FreeRepublic.

[ikka]

Apple now fully qualifies as a cult. It isn't even significant enough to be termed a "sector."

Keep on drinking the BillG brand of purple Kool-Aid. It is very yummy, isn't it?

Apple sells several billion dollars' worth of computer equipment every year. They will be, in a few months, the highest-volume Unix vendor as well. You don't think that matters?

[Bill Rice]

I'd be happy if Electronic Arts would just get the old M.U.L.E. team back together and release M.U.L.E. for the PC.

[eccl1212]

actually, LOTS of offices are scheduling changeovers in os to linux derivatives in the next six months. The war is over alright. we shall see.

I use ms on lots of systems. AND I was amazed at the latest mandrake release. AMAZED. The interoperability between mac graphics servers, unix os's and microslop... was almost unbelievable. I give it 18 mos or less before ms sues them in open court for some sham of a reason to STOP market penetration. They will break 15-20 percent in the next 18-24 mos, the game is afoot. Don't believe it? Just wait and see. I KNOW it... and am NOT a linux convert yet. I REMEMBER how trends felt, when the world moved to pc's from mainframes... and this move back towards unix and more open os's is a predictable and palpable one for me. It WILL happen. Too bad linux has no "stock" to buy, THEY would be my first candidate for the current trend AWAY from microsoft by LOTS of system administration folks... some of whom are in the military.

Just wait... and scoff if you will, Gates will NOT be scoffing in the next 18-24 mos.

[MississippiMan]

There are plenty of Linux companies out there you can buy stock in, so if you want to invest, jump right in. The stock can be had quite cheaply these days.

Understand that I'm not opposed to open source; quite the opposite in fact. I like the concept but that doesn't mean it's gonna work on a wide scale. I haven't installed a Linux distribution in a while but I'll bet much of the process is still Greek to the average PC user.

I heard all the ballyhoo about the new StarOffice and how much of an MS Office-killer it was. Went ahead and did the 100 MB download a couple of weeks ago. It failed to open (in readable fashion) the first .doc file I gave it. Tinkered with it a few more times and quickly saw that it was all a bunch of unfounded hype and uninstalled it.

I'll watch with interest but don't expect any major changes.

Good nite...

MM

[Robert_Paulson2]

Ain't gonna happen,

But you see, it already is. It IS happening. Folks ignore it at their own peril and to their own disadvantage. Believe what you will.. I have nothing against people choosing what they want to for their os's... and never did.

I just was relaying what I am seeing in more than a few markets... and there is a trend away from ms... for the very reasons open sourcers are stating.

The latest linux stuff I tried worked REALLY smooth... and the graphics, and layout proofs and films were just fine. I am not the only person to discover this. Being in the heart of MS territory, it is more than a little disconcerting to the ms/intel crowd, but it is nonetheless true from MY perspective.

MS will continue to exist, just in a greatly diminished capacity... Each release of a "new" os is getting less and less market share than the previous one... and with unises, it is the other way around. It is a trend. YOU will see it... YOU will like it.

[anymouse]

My mistake, I confused a stupid TV show with a stupid movie. :)