'Give Mugabe a chance'

THE executive secretary of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Prega Ramsamy, on Wednesday urged the Commonwealth to give Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe a chance and not to suspend his country.

"President Robert Mugabe has made pledges and has to be given a chance to fulfil them," Ramsamy told a press conference in Botswana, two days after a SADC summit where Zimbabwe's March elections and political violence were high on the agenda.

Zimbabwe's government policies will be examined at a meeting of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) due to take place on January 30, after two years of political violence mainly targetting the opposition and white farmers.

The main Commonwealth summit is due to take place north of Brisbane in Australia between March 2 and 5, five days before the presidential poll when Mugabe faces his strongest challenge in 21 years of rule, from opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

"It would be unfortunate if the Commonwealth meeting was to pre-empt the outcome of the Zimbabwean elections by dismissing Zimbabwe from the organisation," Ramsamy said. Such action "will only result in the hardening of attitudes."

"We will try very hard to persuade Commonwealth not to sideline Zimbabwe as that will only cause complications. It will be premature to chase Zimbabwe before the elections as that will not achieve anything," he added. Mugabe had told SADC leaders of circumstances that led to the country's generals announcing last week that they would not support anybody "who had not participated in the liberation struggle becoming president of Zimbabwe". "He (Mugabe) said it was done through a general context of supporting the philosophy of liberation and independence that people fought for," Ramsamy said. "The army was also responding to false reports that they had asked Mugabe to step down."

Last week, Zimbabwe's defence forces commander, General Vitalis Zvinavashe, declared that "the security organisations will only stand in support of those political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values" and the objectives of the "liberation struggle". Tsvangirai was not an active combatant in the 1970's struggle.

The SADC summit issued a statement saying that it "welcomed the assurances by President Mugabe that the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for March 9-10, 2002 will be free and fair." Leaders had said their main concern was the statement from the generals.

Meanwhile, the BBC on Wednesday rejected allegations from Zimbabwe that its reporting on the country is biased, and urged Mugabe's government to reconsider a ban against its teams working there. "The BBC is deeply disappointed that despite our repeated requests the goverment of Zimbabwe continues to ban our correspondents and reporting teams from operating there," the Director of the BBC World Service Mark Byford wrote in a letter sent to the Zimbabwe Herald newspaper. "It also regrets that the government continues to make misleading statements about the BBC, which, had we been consulted, we could have corrected," the letter said. Persistent statements made by Harare and published in the Herald allege that the BBC is working to the remit of the British government and has been broadcasting in the native Shona and Ndebele languages.

The BBC flatly denied such allegations in its letter. "The BBC unequivocally refutes any suggestions that the BBC is anti-Zimbabwe, is motivated by political end or is working to the remit of any government," wrote Byford. "The BBC World Service does not broadcast in Shona and Ndebele and we have no plans to do so," he added. The Zimbabwe government has clamped down on press freedoms in the build-up to its presidential election, due on March 9-10. - AFP

(01-21-02) Sidney Morning Herald-- Hit Mugabe hard where it hurts, now [Full Text] Robert Mugabe is on track to win the coming presidential election in Zimbabwe by the foulest of means. He began two years ago a campaign of violent intimidation, cynical and corrupt exploitation of the land reform issue and unconscionable abuse of power. International attention has at last been engaged, but action - despite repeated calls by organisations like mine for targeted sanctions - has so far been lamentably weak. Time is running out, with just over six weeks left before the poll.

Reports from Zimbabwe, limited by the rigid controls the Government has imposed on the independent media, indicate that the ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front, is already rigging electoral rolls and preparing to stuff ballot boxes.

The occupation of farms by President Mugabe's supporters and subsequent displacement of farm workers is central to the ruling party's election strategy. Driven from their homes, many thousands of presumed opposition supporters will be disqualified from voting. Sheer terror will also play its part.

Five supporters of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change have been killed in the past two weeks. MDC MP David Mpala was abducted and stabbed in the same period. Seven people died in politically related killings in December and if nothing changes the incidence of murder, torture, unlawful detention and arrest seem certain to rise as the poll approaches. The police protect the abusers, rarely investigating attacks on opposition supporters and doing nothing to stop violent farm invasions, sometimes actively supporting the invaders. Most disturbingly, on January 9, Zimbabwe's defence force chief declared that the military would withhold support from any elected president they saw as unfit for office - a direct threat to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, and an unconscionable breach of constitutional principle.

In the past week the European Union, the Commonwealth, the United States and the Southern African Development Community have all gone through the motions of increasing diplomatic pressure on Mugabe. The EU is considering economic sanctions, the US and Britain are investigating the offshore assets of Mugabe's inner circle, some Commonwealth countries (with Australia playing a welcome prominent role) are moving towards Zimbabwe's suspension. The SADC has urged Mugabe to uphold regionally agreed principles on elections. But no-one has taken any action that will have a direct impact on the leadership. Mugabe has continued to walk away from meetings promising to uphold the rule of law and allow free and fair elections, but delivering on none of his pledges. To provide the best chance for a relatively fair election, meaningful personal sanctions should be applied right now to Mugabe and those closest to him, to be lifted only if the voting process proves acceptable. Even if Zimbabwe suddenly admits election monitors and foreign journalists, and instructs police to arrest those who commit acts of violence, there is every chance standards will slip as the polling days approach. It will be all too easy to be selective about which observers and reporters are allowed in, put bureaucratic obstacles in the way of travel plans and visas, and arrange police roadblocks around a "dangerous area" to stop monitors and media from moving around once they are in the country. By the time their complaints are lodged, the election will be over.

The imposition of travel bans by the EU, US and Commonwealth countries on the ZANU-PF leadership at this late stage would be largely symbolic, but usefully so. A provisional freeze on access to foreign-held bank accounts and assets would hurt more. Action of almost any kind by Zimbabwe's southern African neighbours would hurt most of all. These are the countries that have the most to lose from Zimbabwe's slide, and the only ones with a chance of exerting personal influence on its president. Mugabe and his cronies are reported to have sizable financial interests in South Africa and any restrictions on access to that property and funds would certainly sting. Even if Mugabe is beyond influence, targeted sanctions would certainly affect the calculations of other ruling party officials now weighing their personal interests against those of the country.

For the past 18 months, South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki has pursued a policy of almost noiseless diplomacy with Mugabe. It's time to acknowledge that this policy has failed and South Africa is the loser for it. Around 500 refugees from violence, poverty and food shortages are crossing the Limpopo River from Zimbabwe every day. South Africa's state-run energy companies are carrying significant debts as Zimbabwe falls further behind on payments for electricity and fuel. And if Zimbabwe's breakdown continues, and major conflict erupts, South Africa and its SADC neighbours will be massively harmed.

Unfortunately SADC members, on all the evidence to date, are the least likely to take action against Mugabe. The southern African liberation leaders, most of them vulnerable to criticism for anti-democratic behaviour of their own, seem prepared to tolerate almost any excess by fellow club members. And Mugabe has chosen his ground well. A lasting legacy of colonialism is the unequal distribution of farmland, with Zimbabwe not the only country in the region where much of the most profitable land is still owned or controlled by whites. It's an immensely charged issue, especially in South Africa, and not one on which Mugabe's colleagues are prepared to speak out.

If Mugabe does win the presidential election, the first question for the international community must be whether the result should be recognised.

By accepting the result of a corrupt election process, the international community would be, in effect, condoning illegal land grabs, the demolition of democratic principles and the independence of the judiciary, the co-opting of the police and army for political ends and economic vandalism. This won't help the effort elsewhere in Africa to achieve greater democratisation and economic progress.

Unhappily for his country and his own historical legacy, Mugabe seems to have long moved beyond reach of rational persuasion. Archbishop Desmond Tutu got it right when he described the Zimbabwean leader as "power-mad". If Mugabe is to be stopped, the power and status of him and those around him must be threatened. Sharply targeted personal sanctions, directed at Mugabe and his family and key supporters, applied now and maintained as long as it takes, are the only effective lever left.

Enough barking, old colleagues of mine: it's time to do some biting.

Gareth Evans is the president of the International Crisis Group. [End]

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