Posted on 05/18/2002 10:31:35 AM PDT by GeneD
WASHINGTON, May 18 — American intelligence agencies have intercepted a vague yet troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives over the last few months indicating that the terrorist organization is trying to carry out an operation as big as or bigger than the Sept. 11 attacks, according to intelligence and law enforcement officials.
But just as last summer's threats left counterterrorism analysts guessing about Al Qaeda's intentions, and believing that the attack might be carried out overseas, the new interceptions are so general that they have left President Bush and his counterterrorism team in the dark about the time, place or method of what some officials refer to as a second-wave attack. As a result, the government is essentially limited to taking broad defensive measures.
"It's again not specific — not specific as to time, not specific as to place," one senior administration official said.
The officials compared the intercepted messages, which they described as cryptic and ambiguous, to the pattern of those picked up last spring and early summer, when Qaeda operatives were also overheard talking about a big operation. Those signals were among the evidence that intelligence agencies presented to President Bush in August about the possibility of an imminent attack against the United States.
The senior official said Friday that the amount of intelligence relating to another possible attack, in Europe, the Arabian Peninsula or the United States, had increased in the last month. Some of it comes from interviews with fighters captured in Afghanistan.
But despite the disruption of Al Qaeda's operations around the world since Sept. 11, and despite major spending increases and shifts of resources to counterterrorism operations, American officials say they have not been able to fully piece together the clues about Al Qaeda's plans.
"There's just a lot of chatter in the system again," the official said. "We are actively pursuing it and trying to see what's going on here."
The government's frustration underscores the problem in fighting an unconventional foe like Al Qaeda.
Interviews with law enforcement and intelligence officials suggest that in the eight months since Sept. 11 the government has made only limited progress in its ability to predict Al Qaeda's next move, and that many proposed improvements in counterterrorism operations have yet to be put into effect.
This is despite considerable advantages that the United States lacked a year ago. The war in Afghanistan has provided a wealth of new information about Al Qaeda's structure and organization, for example.
In addition, the United States is also interrogating captured Qaeda fighters about the organization's plans. Officials say that debriefings of detainees have in some instances provided general warnings of another major attack that dovetail with the threats picked up in the intercepted communication traffic.
Facing intense criticism in recent days over disclosures that a series of possible clues about Al Qaeda's plans fell through the cracks in the months leading up to the Sept. 11 attacks, officials say that some significant changes have been made in the way threat information is studied and circulated within the upper reaches of the Bush administration.
For the first time, the C.I.A. and F.B.I. now compare notes on all terrorist threat information that comes in each day, filtering the intelligence through what they call an analytical "matrix" to determine which threats are the most credible and deserve the most attention. Their daily threat report is distributed to senior policy makers, including the White House director of homeland security, Tom Ridge. It provides a structure for debates among senior officials about whether to issue public threat warnings.
President Bush also now receives daily briefings from both the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. George Tenet, the director of central intelligence, and Robert S. Mueller III, the F.B.I. director, are frequently present during those White House sessions. That way, each agency is able to hear the other's latest advice to the president. Before Sept. 11, he received a daily briefing only from the C.I.A.
Although officials say some potential attacks have been foiled, that has been largely credited to the arrest of terrorist operatives overseas by foreign governments rather than to intelligence gleaned from intercepted communications.
United States intelligence officials said that they began to intercept communications among Qaeda operatives discussing a second major attack in October, and that they have detected recurring talk among them about another attack ever since. Some of the intercepted communications have included frightening references to attacks that the Qaeda operatives say would cause vast numbers of American casualties.
The intercepted communications don't point to any detailed plans for an attack, and even the messages mentioning mass casualties don't refer specifically to the use of weapons of mass destruction like chemical, biological or nuclear devices.
Still, American officials say they believe the intercepts represent some of the most credible intelligence they have received since Sept. 11 about Al Qaeda's intentions. They have provided a troubling undercurrent for the Bush administration as it tries to sort through the hundreds of other terrorist threat warnings it has received over the past few months.
The pattern of intercepted communications that began last October has helped prompt at least five public threat alerts issued by the F.B.I. since last fall.
By contrast, federal law enforcement and intelligence officials say they have been skeptical of many of the far more specific threats they have received from individual informants over the past few months. One of the problems now facing American counterterrorism experts is that they say communications intercepts, while vaguely worded, are often highly credible threat warnings, while the very detailed and specific threats passed on by individual informants are often far less reliable.
Individual informants who approach American investigators in the United States or overseas often know what kind of story will get the biggest reaction. They also often come forward because of hidden motives, perhaps hoping for money or entrance into the United States. The C.I.A. routinely gives its informants polygraph tests in an effort to validate their stories.
But officials say that in some cases they have been forced to take tales told by informants more seriously than they otherwise might, at least in part because officials suspect from the intercepted communications that Al Qaeda is planning something big.
In recent months, officials have issued threat alerts regarding nuclear plants, financial institutions and even specific structures like the Seattle Space Needle and the Golden Gate Bridge, even as some counterterrorism experts privately regarded those threats as not based on solid intelligence.
Some officials say the government's new color-coded threat alert system is less useful than the system it replaced, because it is subject to political influences from appointees who are fearful of being criticized if they fail to pass on every possible threat, no matter how remote.
Yet even as the less credible threats have been widely publicized, the more worrisome and credible undercurrent of intercepted communications has not been made public.
In hindsight, analysts now view the pattern of intercepted communications they saw last May, June and July as a sign of the impending attacks. Those intercepts, coming after embassy bombings in Africa and the suicidal bombing of a Navy ship in an Arabian port, were sometimes alarming.
Their references to mass attacks against American interests prompted a series of public alerts against possible terrorist attacks last summer, including one concerning a possible strike over the Fourth of July holiday. Officials said that they never had any evidence that an attack would occur inside the United States, and instead focused most of their attention on possible strikes against American facilities in the Middle East, Europe or Asia.
After the summer holiday passed quietly without any attacks, American analysts were relieved, but still believed that an attack might be coming. However, they lacked any further details of where or when the strike might come, and some officials began to think that the immediate danger might have passed. Now that analysts are seeing a similar pattern of communications intercepts, they say they are determined to avoid a repeat of that mistake.
The way our intelligence services operate, I believe orange would coincide with the FAA's alert of flights having been hijacked, and red would coincide with them crashing into the WTC, Pentagon and a Pennsylvania field.
Deport all of them! Legal & illegal. No more visas. No more Arabs or Muslims in the US.
I'd stick around and defend my home and family. Our police and law enforcement can always use more eyes and ears. Lock and Load!
If they won't seal the borders; if they will welcome those who practice an intertwined religious/political philosophy dedicated to the destruction of our Republic to come here and spread that vile philosophy and propagandize for them, then we should not be asking them to start profiling "terrorists".
The government, and their globalist masters, are using these Islamics and their terrorism to expand their power and suppress all resistance.
The government knows who these people are, and could have expelled them long before they committed anything of consequences, but they didn't. They let it happen to justify gutting the Constitution.
As I tried to tell Principled, there's more to this than meets the eye, and asking the government to do more (via profiling) is just shooting oneself in the foot.
I don't trust the Islamics to reject their philosophy, just because they live in a Western country, and I don't trust the government to root these dangerous people out of our midsts. The government is full of globalists, who realize that they have to do away with nationalism and patriotism in this nation; do away with our Republic, basically, before they can bring their world government oligarchy into being. Terrorism on our own soil is a pretty good way to do this, because it scares so many trusting people into demanding that the government "protect" them, unconcerned about their loss of liberty.
I hope I've been able to explain myself better.
Ping!
The New York Times puts its allegiance to its political agenda over its loyalty to the country, as usual. They would rather see another 9/11 than see Bush remain in ofice, just as they would rather risk the destruction of Israel than see Sharon remain in office.
Well said. The lack of maturity among the dims and the pressitudes is astonishing.
If their ilk had been sufficiently powerful in the 1940's, we could be speaking German or Japanese today.
I read in the new New York Sun this week that Jews are starting to boycott the New York Slimes. And that there is a separate boycott of the New York Post by muslim newsstand operators, which is true. At least 2 places I now previously frequented to buy newspapers have refused to carry the Post. Tensions are mounting in NY. I have refused to buy the New York Times or Newsday for several years now, anyway.
Don't expect the Gov't to be there to stop them, they will be overwhelmed with disinformation, spread way to thin and unable to react quickly enough. Therefore each and every American must be prepared, we must be observant! Train yourself now, get professional firearms training from Frontsight, Gunsite, Lethal Force Institute, Thunder Ranch or similar training facilities. Always have a means of reliable communication with you at all times, be properly armed at all times that you can legally possess a weapon and that means carrying a concealed gun everywhere even to church like I do. When you can't have a gun or knife, have other weapon devices, a cane, a long strong shoe string in your pocket, a nylon belt, a sharpened credit card, strong metal pen, kubaton, metal flashlight etc. Have a means of recording the event, a video camera, digital camera, disposable camera and a notepad & pen, write down anything you consider strange. Wherever you go, ALWAYS be in condition YELLOW, look at everyone around you constantly, get out of the daydream distracted mode and always be vigilent! Record and report anything that you genuinely consider out of the ordinary or suspicious. Look at how someone is dressed, how they walk, what they are doing. Remember, terrorists don't wear big red "T"'s they will blend in, they will be friendly, polite and will avoid drawing attention to themselves. Look at everyone in your area while you are doing your thing.
Remember this, you and you alone are responsible for your life and safety, make a commitment and take steps now to protect yourself, remember who you survive for.
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