How Microsoft Plays Monopoly

The Inquirer ^ | July 18, 2002 | Arron Rouse

[JameRetief]

It's got a get out of jail free card

By Arron Rouse: Thursday 18 July 2002, 11:17

THE NEWS that Microsoft intends to ditch backwards compatibility (here), with its Windows XP replacement, Longhorn, has come as a surprise to many. Some industry pundits have expressed serious doubts about the idea. Doubts and surprise are the last thing you need -- this is a textbook Microsoft move.

To get a better idea of why Microsoft would consider a course change as bold as this you need to consider the problems it is facing at the moment. There are several major issues that it would like to resolve and by releasing Longhorn as an entirely new operating system it can deal with them all in one go.

No More Pesky Judgements
The biggest advantage to making Longhorn a completely new platform and giving it a new name is that it instantly becomes Microsoft's 'get out of jail free' card. If you take a read of the Proposed Final Settlement (here) from the long running anti-trust case, you'll see why. Everywhere that mentions a penalty or control on Microsoft specifically uses the term 'Windows operating system', not 'Microsoft operating system' or just 'operating system'. So, if Microsoft calls Longhorn something other than Windows, it can effectively rip up the settlement then laugh in the faces of judges and lawyers who eventually got a guilty verdict to stick.

That the final judgement isn't in yet makes very little difference. Courts of law take a long time thinking about these kinds of things and there are unlikely to be any major changes to this aspect; Microsoft's lawyers would cause hell in court if that wording were to be changed.

The fact that Longhorn might be only partially Windows compatible would be just as contentious. Microsoft could easily argue that it was not just creating a level playing field but a whole new market.

Parasitdium
The pressure from the film and recording industry to create a platform where content cannot be copied ties in perfectly with Microsoft's wish to secure its own programs. The thinking goes that it'll shift more boxes if people can't copy software. A lot of money has been spent on Palladium for this very reason. To create a properly secure PC will mean new hardware with a unique identity for each machine at the very least.

There is also the possibility of the security system being another revenue stream. If companies wanted to protect their content, Microsoft could ask for a fee to use the security features. It would mean that not only would Hollywood executives get a nice kickback every time you watched a film, so would Redmond.

Windows Trademark
Microsoft's recent battle with Lindows.com has left it with burnt fingers. The Windows trademark in the US has effectively been thrown out. It's actually something of a surprise that it was ever granted in the first place but that's probably down to the US intellectual property offices being somewhat less than fully switched on.

Most countries, including the US, do not allow everyday words to be trademarked which means that Microsoft has spent a lot of money trying to get something it can't have. Fingers still smoking from the Lindows debacle, you can be sure that Microsoft will be looking for ways to stop other upstarts. A new name that can be trademarked is the obvious solution.

Tighter Control of Hardware
The ditching of legacy hardware would be a nightmare banished for Microsoft. Switching to 3GIO would mean dropping support for all those old pieces of hardware that people still use. No more ISA cards to test, no more checking that ancient parallel printers still work. The savings in QA costs alone makes this a bean-counter’s fantasy.

Then there is Microsoft's love of control. If it can change the hardware platform to something that it specifies, you can bet it will be given plenty of attention. It not only means getting to choose a better platform, it means Microsoft can start flexing its patents and licensing the hardware as well as the software.

How to Get People to Change
So far, so nasty but getting people to adopt the new operating system might seem a large obstacle. Not so. Microsoft need only stop Windows development of Office, SQL Server, Exchange, its development tools, etc. and only produce them for the new operating system. It wouldn't take long for big businesses to start switching over. It wouldn't take too many security holes to appear in the older versions before even the most jaded PC user had to think about switching. The fact that the newer platform would be likely to run much faster because it had dumped all the legacy rubbish would be an additional sweetener.

Longhorn might just be Microsoft's dream come true. A platform where you can't copy Microsoft applications. An opportunity to tax Hollywood. A new trademark that can't be touched. A way of licensing the rights on any piece of new hardware that's compatible. It doesn't need to do all of these things, some will probably be killed off by public outcry. Many will stick. In other words, this is a textbook Microsoft move.

See Also
Is Microsoft's Longhorn a bum steer?
Microsoft will get away with IT

Arron Rouse is a freelance technical author and business analyst.

[Silly]

My pet peeve is how Microsoft uses a "kitty" and places all taxes and Community Chest money in the middle of the board, then gives it to whomever lands on Free Parking.

[Silly]

Plus, Monopoly ALWAYS has to be the race car, and then make vroom vroom noises when passing GO.

How do YOU play Monopoly?

Just being,

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

This article doesn't provide enough background to allow a reader not already familiar with the ideas being discussed to follow what is going on.

[dyed_in_the_wool]

You don't mean that all of the 16-bit, Windows 3.1 code that was just ported to VB6 will have to be ported again, do you?
No way they'd do that us.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

How did you choose your screen name? LOL.

[Silly]

It's an anagram of the name of my mother's coffee shop: "Lily's."

[balrog666]

Suggested new title: How To Boost Linux Over The Top

[medved]

You assume msoft is not going to want to go on selling windows 2k or ME. Is there any possibility of the courts or some other govt. agency requiring either that msoft continue selling 2k or hand it over to some other party who will?

[demlosers]

All you need to know is this:

FREEPERS RESISTANCE is FUTILE prepare yourselves for ASSIMILATION!

BWWHAAHHAAAHAHAAAA

[mhking]

[discostu]

So basically they're going to do the exact same thing they did at the beginning of the 90s (actually it started in the late 80s but the real push didn't come until the 90s). That's how you move forward, downward compatibility is a drag on new technology, you can't make radical alterations and still support the old stuff. This probably also provides their method to jump to 64 bit (shipping 32 bit 95 was really the final act in killing DOS). Know MS though they'll never truly kill support for the old stuff, I still play DOS games on XP (actually they work better on XP than they did on 98), the new OS wil probably still run most older stuff but it won't be officially supported. I wouldn't be too scared, if they phase out Windows the same way they phased out DOS you've got close to 10 years from right now before they'l stop revving Windows.

[Dominic Harr]

A capitalist business reacts to the customer's needs and wants. A capitalist business is driven by the market.

An anti-capitalist monopoly ignores the customer's needs and wants. An anti-capitalist monopoly controls the market.

Developers and consumers want compatibility -- both backward compatibility and cross-platform compatibility -- in software products.

Yet MS in no way reacts to this market.

That's the most important reason a coersive monopoly can not be allowed in a 'capitalist' system.

[Dominic Harr]

Bump to list.

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

Wordstar got arrogant and complacent - replaced by WordPerfect.

Wordperfect got arrogant, complacent, and shortsighted (and screwed by MS) - replaced by MS Word.

I hope that Linux and Mac don't become arrogant and complacent when they replace MS.

[Free the USA]

Index Bump

[RISU]

Dear Microsoft:

It may come as a real shock, but we can all live without you if we need to do that.

You did not invent the computer, and to tell the truth your software, if it were not for the massive increases in chip speeds and mass stoage, probably would bog down and just stop...it's that bloated.

An "operating system" means a small program that lets all the hardware talk and function togehter. It does not mean "an applications environment". The "embrace and extend" strategy is nothing more than a transparent attempt to roll into your own package everything you see out there that people "like", without havign to pay the price of original idea creation. It's a form of "imitative" innovation. Other people have different names for it.

As a user, I "own" my computer here. You don't. I bought the machine. You didn't. It is my property, not yours. And I can tell you, my freind, I am not interested in having my machine converted from a real comptuer to a "dumb terminal" operated by your esteemed self via remote control! Thta's for "appliance operators" and "entertainment heads".

Try as you will, you will never be able to lock the user out of his own system. To the extent that you try it, your products will lose following (too bad, since you have some nice stuff), and your company will go down.

Yes, you have much cash to "play at" being "successful". It came to you as you sold multyiple versions of the same thing over and over for years! But, pray tell, what is your "burn rate" now?

The purpose of an American enterprise it to "serve" the customer, what he or she says is wanted or needed, not to be "served by" the customer as a capitive audience. Wise up...fast.

Warm regards,

The "User"

ps: I think your main problem is "too many lawyers working". (If you call what they do "work".)

[Britton J Wingfield]

Apple was arrogant and complacent years ago, when wintel beat them like a rented mule.

Particular distributors of Linux may become complacent, but they'd be buried by their competitor's in a heartbeat. Any upstart with a good new config utility could potentially dominate the Linux market in a flash.

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

A good case could be made for Apple being Arrogant in the past.  It's more difficult to make a such case for them being complacent.  Even their derisive comments about windows NT (Not There) didn't lull them into a false sense of security.

[Brush_Your_Teeth]

I do not believe that microsoft will make developers pay a licence to develop software for its new operating system. That alone will open the path to another operating system more then any government action.