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Stratfor: Bush Issues Veiled Ultimatum to United Nations
Stratfor.com ^ | 12 September 2002

Posted on 09/12/2002 1:06:55 PM PDT by sanchmo

Bush Issues Veiled Ultimatum to United Nations
12 September 2002

Summary

U.S. President George W. Bush did as he was asked, taking his case for an attack on Iraq to the United Nations Sept. 12. But rather than allow the U.S. plan to be stalled by bureaucratic sandbagging, Bush implied a harsh ultimatum to the United Nations: Either enforce the resolutions that you passed and that Iraq has mocked for over a decade or the United States essentially will abandon the institution.

Analysis

U.S. President George W. Bush Sept. 12 answered the calls of his critics at home and abroad when he presented the U.S. case for attacking Iraq to the U.N. General Assembly. Rather than proving the moral or technical need for an attack, Bush checkmated his critics by instead challenging the validity of the very institution they support in hopes of thwarting both despots like Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and perceived unilateralists like Bush.

In short, Bush challenged the United Nations to live up to the responsibility it claims or step aside.

In the year since the Sept. 11 attacks, international support for the U.S. war on al Qaeda gradually has ebbed as countries have bridled at U.S. pressure or sought concessions in return for their aid. As Washington turned its attention to a potential attack on Iraq, much of the world openly balked, arguing that Iraq had nothing to do with the war on al Qaeda. Opposition to an Iraq campaign even began to divide the U.S. Congress and the Republican Party.

After numerous attempts to make the case for an attack, as well as continued debate within the administration over whether the United States really needed international support to topple Hussein, Bush agreed to consult Congress, U.S. allies and the United Nations.

But the administration had no intention of allowing "consultations" to descend into sandbagging. Rather, Bush essentially asked the various critics, "OK, you don't like our plan, what's yours?"

The general response from Europe, the Middle East and others was along the line of "we don't have an alternative plan besides more of the same, but that doesn't mean we have to like or support your plan. And your plan still has nothing to do with the war on al Qaeda."

The United States has a problem. It needs a coalition whether it wants one or not. If it is to attack Iraq effectively, it needs access to the territory of neighboring states. If it is to hunt down al Qaeda and other militant organizations, it needs the support of other countries' intelligence services and police forces, as well as access to their financial and communications infrastructures.

Receiving no support and no alternative might have left the Bush administration on the rhetorical high ground, but it did nothing to advance the U.S. plan. Washington did not have support before consultations with other governments, and it still did not have support after the consultations.

Washington instead needed leverage. It needed an "or else." It could not be, "Or else we'll go it alone," because the United States could not go it alone, at least not effectively. Washington needed an "or else" that generated active cooperation. It appears from Bush's speech to the United Nations that Washington found the lever it needs.

During his speech Bush reframed the rationale for an attack on Iraq. The issue now is not about whether Iraq does or does not have weapons of mass destruction, nor is it about whether Baghdad supports al Qaeda, though both are still important aspects. Rather, Bush made the case that the Iraq problem is a test case for the superiority of multilateralism over unilateralism. It was a test case for the validity and viability of the United Nations itself.

He argued that the United Nations was created to bring peace, stability and security to the world and that the Security Council was created to ensure that the United Nations is not merely a venue for empty rhetoric. He then issued a simple, veiled ultimatum. If the United Nations would not or could not back up the numerous resolutions it has passed over the past 12 years -- resolutions that Hussein has brazenly flouted -- then the body is irrelevant.

Washington's "or else" is a tacit threat of a possible de facto U.S. abandonment of the United Nations. Bush's argument, in short, was that if the international community wants the United Nations to have any say in what the United States does -- to have any hope of leashing U.S. unilateralism -- then it must make the organization more than a venue for obfuscation and delay.

There remain many unanswered questions about the Bush plan for Iraq and many pitfalls should the United States be left to go it alone. But the ball is now squarely in the United Nations' court, and the question now is not merely about the future of Iraq, but the future of the United Nations.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bush; iraq; stratfor; unitednations
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To: sanchmo
Rather than proving the moral or technical need for an attack, Bush checkmated his critics by instead challenging the validity of the very institution they support in hopes of thwarting both despots like Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and perceived unilateralists like Bush.

Daschle and Gephardts' checkmates are next.

The only thing I wish Bush would have said, but didn't:

"These conditions are not up for discussion or negotiation"

21 posted on 09/12/2002 1:54:10 PM PDT by NorCoGOP
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To: sanchmo
My interpretation of the President's UN speech today is that unless the UN wants to continue on the road to irrelevancy, they better get aboard the Baghdad Express because the American people are sick and tired of Kofi clatches with Saddam and the unilateral train is leaving the station fixin' to put some whoopass on the Iraqi regime.
22 posted on 09/12/2002 1:58:42 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: NorCoGOP
Daschle and Gephardts' checkmates are next.

Rush Limbaugh went a long way towards this this week with some noce quotes from clinton and Daschle in 98 about how they needed a diversion from Monica dangerous Saddam was and he should be pummeled

23 posted on 09/12/2002 2:00:06 PM PDT by Jalapeno
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To: NorCoGOP
The only thing I wish Bush would have said, but didn't: "These conditions are not up for discussion or negotiation"

Twasn't necessary; it was understood to be implied. :-))

And if even that was missed by some in attendence; the look in his eye would have cleared it up for them.

24 posted on 09/12/2002 2:01:04 PM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: sanchmo

25 posted on 09/12/2002 2:01:29 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: NorCoGOP
"These conditions are not up for discussion or negotiation"

I could be wrong, but I believe the UN and its delegates know that US President George W. Bush says what he means, and means what he says.

26 posted on 09/12/2002 2:06:21 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: sanchmo
While I often find myself wincing at some of Dubya's speeches (mainly due to the numerous malapropisms), I saw this one on live TV and found myself immensely proud of the way he presented himself and his no-nonsense message in front of the entire world. Whether or not one might agree with him, one couldn't deny the power of the man or his words.

Rather than get sidetracked by the various arguments against removing Saddam, Bush simply told the world: "This is what is going on, and here's what needs to be done about it." Using no more than the force of his character and persuasion of his honesty, he told them to put up or shut up. Nicely done!

President Bush confronted the UN with something it couldn't comprehend: true leadership. I look forward to seeing more of it in the future.

Imal

27 posted on 09/12/2002 2:06:54 PM PDT by Imal
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Imal
While I often find myself wincing at some of Dubya's speeches (mainly due to the numerous malapropisms), I saw this one on live TV and found myself immensely proud of the way he presented himself and his no-nonsense message in front of the entire world.

Bump
29 posted on 09/12/2002 2:14:05 PM PDT by RGSpincich
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To: AllSmiles
You need to read The Eagle Will Not Blink written by a Pakistani Muslim.

Thoughtful, well written, and truthful.

30 posted on 09/12/2002 2:18:35 PM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: RGSpincich
malapropisms

Ya'll got too much book learnin'.

31 posted on 09/12/2002 2:19:45 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: sanchmo
It did not sound "veiled" at all to me.
32 posted on 09/12/2002 2:34:46 PM PDT by AdA$tra
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To: sanchmo
Bush Issues Veiled Ultimatum to United Nations

Veiled??? Good GOD how could he have been any LESS veiled?

33 posted on 09/12/2002 2:39:23 PM PDT by Bigun
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To: NorCoGOP
The only thing I wish Bush would have said, but didn't:

"These conditions are not up for discussion or negotiation"

For which we have the useful (though overused) term:

subtext

34 posted on 09/12/2002 2:42:58 PM PDT by PhilDragoo
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To: Bigun
Veiled??? Good GOD how could he have been any LESS veiled?

1. He could have turned to Kofi and flipped him the bird.

2. He could have said, "The bombing starts in 10 minutes" :)

35 posted on 09/12/2002 2:44:20 PM PDT by El Gato
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To: 4ConservativeJustices
Unfortunately, I believe what Stratfor meant when they said that the US "essentially will abandon the institution" [The UN] if it doesn't enforce the resolutions is that we'll abandon it on the issue of Iraq, not abandon it altogether.

(For a second or two, I got my hopes up as well).

36 posted on 09/12/2002 2:45:02 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: El Gato
Veiled??? Good GOD how could he have been any LESS veiled?

3) He could have strode over to the Iraqi representative and given him the Mother of All Wedgies.

The bombing begins in FOUR minutes.

37 posted on 09/12/2002 2:47:01 PM PDT by PhilDragoo
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To: sanchmo
"Either you are with U.S. or you are with the Terrorist"!!

He made it pretty simple....

38 posted on 09/12/2002 2:48:16 PM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: Oldeconomybuyer; Imal
Ya'll got too much book learnin'.

Not me, bubba. ; ) I was bumping Imal's phrase.

39 posted on 09/12/2002 2:48:53 PM PDT by RGSpincich
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To: Jack-A-Roe; 4ConservativeJustices
Actually, you're right....Stratfor's analysis was indeed that the veiled threat was to leave the UN entirely. But I don't agree with their analysis (as much as I'd like to). I can't imagine we'd ever actually take that rational course of action.
40 posted on 09/12/2002 2:48:57 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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