It looks like the public is being prepared for the possibility of a bio-attack, without mentioning how likely that attack is.
The truth is, the probability is very high. The question is when?
One view holds that Saddam has used the threat of a biological attack as a deterent against attack by the United States. I suspect that has been the case in the past. However, regardless of whether this has been the case in the past or not, it is clear that we are currently getting ready to attack. We are not currently deterred, and Saddam must certainly realize this.
Which raises the question: Given the inevitability of a U.S. attack, will Saddam wait until we attack him, or will he strike us first?
If he decides to wait he runs the risk that we will be able to kill him at the start of the attack. He is quite interested in his own survival (evidently his 72 virgins and 3 young boys can wait). So he may conclude that a first strike is his best shot.
A first strike is certain to result in the retaliatory destruction of Iraq, but not necessarily in Saddam's personal destruction. If he can make his blow strong enough, he may believe he can weaken us enough to prevent us from being able to physically root him out of whatever shelter he is hiding in.
If he thinks he is cooked either way, then I suspect he will strike first in an attempt to bring as many of us down with him as possible.
Ultimately, I believe Saddam will do whatever he thinks optimizes his chances for long-term survival.
I don't think he realizes anything of the sort. This is a game of Chicken: the outcome is still unknown.