Pryor Keeps Big Lead, 'Well Positioned To Win,' Pollster Says [AR Senate]

Arkansas News Bureau ^ | 9/25/02 | David Robinson

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Say it ain't so.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

Not good news. The realist in me is just about ready to concede that Hutchinson is going to lose. Even if we accept the Zogby results as being more accurate, we still have an incumbent polling well below 50%.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[NeoCaveman]

First Allard now Hutchison.... is this going to be a long night in November?

Maybe there is a true anti-incumbency thing going on as Toricelli and Wellstone look like they are going down too.

[NeoCaveman]

Add me to your ping list, please.

[Coop]

Allard has been ahead in every single poll I've ever seen conducted on the that race. Granted, his lead was a miniscule .1% in Zogby's latest, but he's never trailed. I'm not saying he a shoo-in, but he's not in Hutchinson's shoes.

[BlackRazor]

Allard has been ahead in every single poll I've ever seen conducted on the that race. Granted, his lead was a miniscule .1% in Zogby's latest, but he's never trailed. I'm not saying he a shoo-in, but he's not in Hutchinson's shoes.

I agree. We've only seen one poll so far suggesting the race is this close. Even Strickland's own recent polling had him down by two points (translation: he was really down by more than two points). I'm not saying the race isn't close, but I'm not going to panic until I see another independent poll corroborating Zogby's results.

[frmrda]

Coop the bad news here is the trending. Both Allard and Hutchison have essentially lost whatever lead they had. This poll on Hutchison sounds suspect, its out of whack with others, and the equal polling in each district doesn't seem to take into account the voting percentages therein (I doubt all congressional districts vote in the same percentage).

[Coop]

I'm not ready to give up on AR either. As you know, I've been worried about Hutchinson for a while. But I don't believe he's down by ten points. Even the Dem polls haven't shown that, at least the ones I've seen. Pryor's got some momentum, IMHO, but he's still facing a fight. My best guess is Hutch is down by 3-4 points now (not where ya wanna be as an incumbent).

[Coop]

I disagree on Allard. He hasn't lost his lead, unless you take Zogby as Gospel (and I don't). In the last six weeks we have (in order from most recent to oldest) a Zogby tie, a Dem poll showing Allard up by two, a GOP poll showing Allard up by 11, and a news poll with Allard leading by 8. Unless you're looking at numbers I haven't seen, Allard has not lost his lead. He's probably up about 6-7 points now. He has been vulnerable, and he's still vulnerable. But remember he's already beaten Strickland once, and the CO GOP has significantly increased its voter numbers in the past few years.

[frmrda]

I hope you're right. The Zogby one scares me.

[colorado tanker]

I agree with your analysis on Colorado. I think Allard will pull this out.

[Coop]

We'll know better as more polls come out. It is possible there's a trend in Strickland's favor, but right now the Zogby poll is the outlier.

[mywholebodyisaweapon]

Yeah, especially the fact that Tim considers it "good" news.

[KQQL]

Hutchinson is probably going to lose...He should have never run again..His marriage flab will cost him his JOB.

[KQQL]

Hutchinson is probably going to lose...He should have never run again..His marriage flab will cost him his JOB.

Don't forget that AR is still one the most RAT States in the south

[KQQL]

My to cents...

GOP is likely to hold on to Allard's seat ( CO is still a GOP state and Owen will carry Allard over )but lose AR senate seat.

[KQQL]

@

[Dog Gone]

The problem appears to be that everyone in Arkansas makes less than $75,000 per year.

[LaGrone]

Terrible News!