[M. Peach]

Anyone else have any predictions on how our war against Iraq will play out?

[sinkspur]

If Hussein is stupid enough to do as you suggest, the entire world will unite against him.

That's blackmail, and even the Democrats will stampede to support regime change.

[ComputationalComplexity]

Ok, we go and take out Saddam, you think his cronies here will be disciplined enough to take out a city? Or will they just choose to live out their lives here and maybe even get the chance to bone some liberal American women?

[Arkinsaw]

His goal is to unite the Arab world under his leadership and always has been. I think he will focus his reaction against the US and Israel only. He probably has it in his head that he can hold out long enough for that uniting to occur and I seriously doubt any of his generals are going to tell him anything he does not want to hear. He probably doesn't have a realistic picture of his own capabilities.

I think he is likely to do everything possible to drag Israel into the fight including missiles, WMD attacks, terrorists, trying to move towards the Jordanian border. Once Israel is into the mix he probably thinks he can drag in the whole Arab world.

[jlogajan]

Ever see the movie Dr. Strangelove? The Ruskies had the Doomsday weapon -- but hadn't got around to telling the world about it yet -- and therefore it didn't have the deterrent effect it was designed for.

If Saddam has sleeper cells with WMD distributed around the world, then he'd want to use this "doomsday" threat before hostilities are launched.

Plus it has to be a credible threat or it won't serve the purpose either.

I don't see how he could pull that off -- he'd practically have to demonstrate an actual use of WMD somewhere to prove credibility -- which would at the same time seal his fate in world opinion.

Saddam doesn't have that many deterrent options. At best he can order a post-assault revenge attack -- but that doesn't have to be publicly announced, since deterrent isn't its goal.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

My opinion is that Saddam will prefer exile over death.

[Tacis]

Neither Saddam nor any other bad guy will do anything 'til after the election. The dems are their buddies and they know they will get Clintonian treatment if the dems hold the senate where Biden, Kennedy and Dashole are their representatives and spokesmen. Action before the election would guarantee the election of Republican majorities in both houses. The Republicans are the enemies of the bad guys and the bad guys are reasonably sure that Bush intends to hunt them down.

After the election, Saddam might make such an anouncement but I don't think so. He has large numbers of Muslims around the world who may not be trusted any more, but they are not persecuted. Such a threat would put most of them under the gun.

No, Saddam's best tactic would be to attack after the election but not take credit. Direct credit permits retaliation ("Go ahead, make my day!") and I don't think he'd do that. The attack has to come from sources that will allow Dashole, Kennedy, Biden and the French to say, "We don't have sufficient proof." and urge that we continue to do nothing and take hits. I'm reasonably sure that if we were to see Dashole income tax returns, we'd find that his bag lady wife's consulting firm has several Saddam fronts as major clients.

[Joe 6-pack]

Based on his performance in the Iran-Iraq war, hussein was viewed as a somewhat competent strategist...a view which was significantly altered following Desert Shield/Storm.

If not an effective leader of conventional forces, hussein is smart enough not to telegraph such a move if he actually meant to have it carried out. If indeed, he has the capacity and apparatus in place to carry out such an atrocity, he will keep that card close to his vest...

[AngrySpud]

My prediction is that if your prediction comes true, an Iraqi insider will take out all three Sadaams.

[mikegi]

If something like this were to happen, it wouldn't be Saddam himself making the threat. It would be far better for him to have Al Qaeda or some "new" terror group make the threat. They'll say they were doing it to protect fellow Muslims, etc...

I expect Saddam to have another surprise up his sleeve, a la blowing up the wells in Kuwait to limit our air power. I believe we're going to take airfields in Iraq as part of our invasion. What would happen to our plans if Saddam deliberately contaminates his airfields with radioactive waste as his forces withdraw? Or leaves chemical warheads with time delay or remote controlled fuses on them?

[boomop1]

Yawn

[mitchbert]

OK, here's one out of the box.

Saddam should threaten to destroy Mecca the moment any ordinance falls on Bagdhad. He should demonstrate a weapon so the Muslim world knows he has it and must be taken seriously (seriesly?). The Arab world would then put enormous pressure on the U.S. not to attack.

Won't happen, of course. I don't think he has a nuke yet (at least I sincerely hope not) and besides, I doubt he'll live long once the red white and blue fireworks start going off (here's hoping, anyways) but if he really wanted to throw a camel wrench into the mix, this could do it.

Just musing, and waiting for qualifying at Indy to start.
mitchbert

[tip of the sword]

You must have been reading too much DEBKA lately..not good for peaceful sleep!

[Bad~Rodeo]

He already did, West Nile...L~

[Bon mots]

Who know what the wacko will really do.

But I would guess that he alread has Anthrax, Smallpox, Botulism, Sarin, Malaria, Spanish Flu and other goodies strategically placed throughout America and the west waiting for the start...

When it happens, just remember, Islam is peace. Islamic people are our friends. Mosques are not enemy headquarters.

[dark_lord]

Predictions:
6 to 10 weeks from now, when it is crystal clear that the US is starting the attack, then:
(a) He realizes he has nothing to lose and launches all his missles with chemical and biological warheads on Israel, and the American staging areas. He then fights to the death, or see next option.
(b) There is an internal coup, he and his cronies are killed or
(c) He goes into exile like Idi Amin.
I rate option "a" alone at 85%, option "a" & "b" together at 98%, option "b" alone at 13%, and option "c" at 2%. (If you want to do the math, then a+b+c = 100, and (a+b)+c = 100 also.)
But clearly I think "a" is most likely. After all, once we attack he knows he is dead. Therefore, his optimal strategy is to maximize damage. To do that - kill as many Israelis and US troops as possible, and cast chemical and biotoxins to the winds where they will do the most damage. He is a solopsist - once he dies the world ends anyway, from his perspective.

[OldFriend]

What, no mother of all battles? LOLOL oh, I am afraid Saddam has a new speech writer......Terry McAwful perchance?

[TUX]

Actually the threat of a nuclear device along with the arsenal of chem/bio weaponry will be enough to deter a ground invasion of Iraq. The nukes are his ace in the hole.

W and the planners are well aware of this and must stop him BEFORE he draws this ace.

[The Great Satan]

He'll leave that to his Islamicist buddies. Gotta maintain deniability. In fact, the Islamacists have already announced that any attack on Iraq will constitute provocation for more 9-11s.

[Mike Darancette]

"Anyone else have any predictions on how our war against Iraq will play out?"

We will bomb every possible military asset outside Baghdad, we will inject special forces into Iraq to surround Baghdad and further identify targets.

I do not believe that we will attempt a frontal assault against Baghdad, but make them come to us, then counterattack.

Saddam may fall or flee if Iraq's major cities are invested.

[dennisw]

This will not happen. Saddam is just not good enough/clever enough. This is a plausible scenario for the future but not for Saddam.