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Senate 2002 Overview: Information & Projections

Posted on 09/28/2002 3:09:15 PM PDT by editto

SENATE 2002

Key Races

Sources: Washington Post, C-SPAN.org, CNN.com, ABCNEWS.com, CBSNews.com. Council for a Livable World (CLW), MyDD.com, Cook Political Report, Various campaign websites

Arkansas


Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R)

Senate history:  1 term (1997-present)
Arkansas House:  1985-1992
U.S. House:  1993-1996

Washington Post:  leans Republican

ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

Cook:  “We expect this contest to go down to the wire and don't see either candidate opening up a comfortable lead.”

 


Tim Pryor (D)

Arkansas House:  1991-1994
Arkansas Attorney General:  1999-present

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.

Colorado


Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colorado)

Senate history:  1 term (1997-present)
Colorado Senate:  1983-1991
U.S. House:  1991-1996

Washington Post, ABC, CBS:  Toss-up

CLW:  Republican narrowly favored

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

Cook:  “Our guess is that Allard maintains a slim lead … but is well under 50 percent.”

 


Tom Strickland (D)

No prior elected office (attorney)

Ran against Wayne Allard in 1996.

Iowa


Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)

Senate history:  3 terms (1985-present)
U.S. House:  1974-1984

Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Democrat

ABC:  Democrat favored

CLW:  Democrat narrowly favored

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.

Cook:  “Although Harkin continues to maintain an advantage here, Ganske has closed the gap and this is a high single-digit competitive race that borders on but doesn't quite fall into the Toss Up column.”

 


Greg Ganske (R)

No prior elected office (surgeon)

Minnesota


Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

Senate history:  2 terms (1991-present)
No prior elected office

Had previously pledged to only serve two terms, but now seeking third term.

Washington Post:  leaning Democrat

ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.

Cook:  “This race is in the margin of error today, regardless of whether Wellstone or Coleman is ahead and is destined to go down to the wire.”

 


Norm Coleman (R)

Mayor of St. Paul (1993-2002)

Missouri


Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Missouri)

Senate history:  1 partial term (2001-2002)
No prior elected office

Appointed to fill term of late husband Mel Carnahan.  Missouri law has prompted this special election, and Carnahan is running to complete the remaining four years of her term.

Washington Post:  leaning Democrat

ABC, CBS:  Toss-up

CLW:  Democrat narrowly favored

Cook:  “Our assessment is that Carnahan may have a lead today, but it is not much outside the margin of error… Given that Missouri is a swing state, this race is likely to stay close until the end.”

 


Jim Talent (R)

Missouri House:  1985-1992
U.S. House:  1992-2000

Lost Missouri Governor’s race in 2000.

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

New Hampshire
former seat of Bob Smith (R)


John E. Sununu (R) 

U.S. House:  1997-present 

Sununu beat incumbent Sen. Bob Smith in New Hampshire’s primary election.

Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

Cook:  “[This race should prove to be] very close and could easily go either way.”


 


Jeanne Shaheen (D)

New Hampshire Senate:  1990-1996
New Hampshire Governor:  1996-present

New Jersey


Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-New Jersey)

Senate history:  1 term (1997-present)
U.S. House:  1983-1996

ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.

Cook:  “… [I]t appears that Torricelli will be in for the most difficult race of his career… [W]e have moved the race to the Toss Up column.”

 


Douglas Forrester (R)

No prior elected office (professor, businessman)

Washington Post:  leaning Republican

 

North Carolina
former seat of Jesse Helms (R)


Elizabeth Dole (R)

No prior elected office

U.S. Sec. of Transportation (1983-1987)
U.S. Sec. of Labor (1989-1990)
American Red Cross Pres. (1991-2000)

Dole is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Jesse Helms.

Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Republican

ABC, CLW:  Republican favored.

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

Cook:  “This should be a competitive general election, but Dole begins with a lead and the race stays in the Lean Republican column.”


 


Erskine Bowles (D)

No prior elected office

Small Business Admin. Dir. (1993-1994)
Dep. White House Chief of Staff (1994-1995)
White House Chief of Staff (1996-1998)

 

South Carolina
former seat of Strom Thurmond (R)


Lindsey Graham (R)

South Carolina House:  1993-1994
U.S. House:  1994-present

Graham is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Strom Thurmond.

Washington Post, ABC:  Republican favored

CBS:  leaning Republican

CLW:  Graham narrowly favored

Cook:  “Sanders is a solid candidate who will keep this race competitive.  Graham, though, currently holds the advantage in the race and as long as he does not make a serious mistake, he is in a good position to win the seat.”


 


Alex Sanders (D)

No prior elected office (professor, attorney) 

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat upset win.

 

South Dakota


Sen. Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota)

Senate history:  1 term (1997-present)
South Dakota House:  1978-1982
South Dakota Senate:  1982-1986
U.S. House:  1986-1996 

Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

Cook:  “We continue to believe… that this is a race that will be decided by a small number of voters… This race is as close as they get.”

 


John Thune (R)

U.S. House:  1997-present

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

Tennessee
former seat of Fred Thompson (R)


Lamar Alexander (R)

Tennessee Governor:  1979-1987
U.S. Sec. of Education:  1991-1993

Alexander is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Fred Thompson.

Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Republican

ABC:  Republican favored.

CLW:  Republican narrowly favored

MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.

Cook:  “The race has defied the conventional wisdom since the day it started and thus is worth watching pretty closely.  Having said that, Alexander begins the general election with the advantage but it is considerably less than it was several months ago.”


 


Bob Clement (D)

Tennessee Public Svc. Cmsn.:  1973-1979
U.S. House:  1988-present

Texas
former seat of Phil Gramm (R)


John Cornyn (R)

Bexar County District Judge:  1984-1990
Texas Supreme Court:  1990-1998
Texas Attorney General:  1998-present

Cornyn is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Phil Gramm.

Washington Post:  leaning Republican

ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up

Cook:  “[This race] has a very long way to go and remains a toss up.”


 


Ron Kirk (D)

Texas Secretary of State:  1994
Mayor of Dallas:  1995-2002

MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2002; electionanalysis; senate

1 posted on 09/28/2002 3:09:16 PM PDT by editto
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To: editto
Who are these MyDD people, and why do they see such different likely results than the others?
2 posted on 09/28/2002 3:26:24 PM PDT by Doug Loss
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To: Doug Loss
Who are these MyDD people, and why do they see such different likely results than the others?

That's what I was wondering... they're either total idiots, or some sort of political geniuses. We'll see.

3 posted on 09/28/2002 3:31:00 PM PDT by I Hired Craig Livingstone
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To: editto
You need to update this chart. Greg Ganske is a four term member of the House of Reps.
4 posted on 09/28/2002 5:03:54 PM PDT by Brandon
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To: Brandon
Updated and reposted: See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/759264/posts
5 posted on 09/28/2002 6:44:06 PM PDT by editto
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