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There was a statistician who evaluated Trump/Biden election probabilities relationship to the state elections. I have not been able to find him or his work. Anyone have link?

The Hillary Clinton campaign repeatedly dismissed the concerns of its own operatives on the ground in Michigan, belittling their work and ignoring warnings that she might lose the state. Photo source: Politico Photo source: Politico The staffers based at headquarters in Brooklyn, New York, explicitly ordered operatives in Michigan not to build a voter turnout tracking system, saying they didn’t care about those numbers because their own data showed her winning by 5 points. Perhaps more importantly, they dismissed in-person voter outreach efforts and distributing literature as a waste of time, and discouraged the collection of information from what contact...

As the guy who predicted here that Newt would pull out a narrow win in Florida, I have to admit I was wrong. Dead wrong.This doesn't change the fact that I was dead right about Newt's upset win in South Carolina. All the pundits were predicting a close election or a narrow win for Newt. I was alone in predicting a blow-out. The only thing I was wrong about is UNDER estimating his margin of victory. Not to make excuses, but I had sources on the ground in South Carolina. In Florida, I was limited to looking at news, polls...

[snip] The civil rights movement forced Southern whites to choose between their New Deal-era populism and the demands of racial integration and cultural assimilation. Today's Northeastern and Midwestern whites confront a similar, albeit more subtle, choice between their preferences for a more private faith, a more responsible accounting for their hard-earned tax dollars and a more prudent use of America's military might - and a national Republican Party that has abandoned those principles to appease its ascendant Southern wing. [snip]

Or the Democrats, or the Kerry camapign. Besides the fact that they're wrong on nearly every issue. And when they're almost right, they find a way to alienate those who might agree. Nearly all of the post-election analysis has been of three sorts (add a fourth if you believe the election was stolen). First, the US just has too many morons from "Jesus-land." Second, the Kerry campaign and the Democrats had no message. Third, the Kerry campaign and the Democrats had poor messengers. While all three of these critiques may be true, I can't figure out how a non-moron from...

Thank you all so much. I can't tell you how much this means, to be back at the Heritage Foundation and to be in this beautiful building named for Ronald Reagan, and at this time. It's just such a thrill, and I thank you so much for that warm greeting. I don't think I need to say anything after that introduction. You pretty much said it all. It was so wonderful. I'm going to tell you a little bit about what I told my radio audience yesterday. Mr. Fullner called me. He's "Mr. Fullner" to me. Somebody who's done what...

November 6, 2002, 10:30 a.m. By Kellyanne Conway November 5, 2002 deserves its place alongside September 11, 2001 as a defining moment in George W. Bush's presidency — and our nation's history. The election results are stunning and decisive, suggesting that this country embraces this president and his agenda. GOP governors in Democratic states: Republicans were elected governors Tuesday night in many places not normally associated with the GOP: Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Hawaii, suggesting a geographic breadth of success for the president. Even the "blue states" that supported Gore in 2000 are blushing Bush red. The...

SENATE 2002Key RacesHere is a compiled list (summary and short analysis) of some key races in the Senate.The races I've listed are:  AR, CO, IA, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NC, SC, SD, TN, TX.Also included are projections from various online sources.Sources: Washington Post, C-SPAN.org, CNN.com, ABCNEWS.com, CBSNews.com. Council for a Livable World (CLW), MyDD.com, Cook Political Report, Various campaign websites Arkansas Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R)Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) Arkansas House:  1985-1992 U.S. House:  1993-1996Washington Post:  leans RepublicanABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-upCook:  “We expect this contest to go down to the wire and don't see either candidate opening up a comfortable...

SENATE 2002Key RacesSources: Washington Post, C-SPAN.org, CNN.com, ABCNEWS.com, CBSNews.com. Council for a Livable World (CLW), MyDD.com, Cook Political Report, Various campaign websites Arkansas Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R)Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) Arkansas House:  1985-1992 U.S. House:  1993-1996Washington Post:  leans RepublicanABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-upCook:  “We expect this contest to go down to the wire and don't see either candidate opening up a comfortable lead.”   Tim Pryor (D)Arkansas House:  1991-1994 Arkansas Attorney General:  1999-presentMyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win. Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colorado)Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) Colorado Senate:  1983-1991 U.S. House:  1991-1996Washington Post, ABC, CBS:  Toss-upCLW:  Republican narrowly favoredMyDD.com:  Projected Republican...