Senate 2002 Analysis, Information, & Projections

[editto]

SENATE 2002

Key Races

Here is a compiled list (summary and short analysis) of some key races in the Senate.

The races I've listed are:  AR, CO, IA, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NC, SC, SD, TN, TX.

Also included are projections from various online sources.

Sources: Washington Post, C-SPAN.org, CNN.com, ABCNEWS.com, CBSNews.com. Council for a Livable World (CLW), MyDD.com, Cook Political Report, Various campaign websites

Arkansas Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) Arkansas House:  1985-1992 U.S. House:  1993-1996 Washington Post:  leans Republican ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up Cook:  “We expect this contest to go down to the wire and don't see either candidate opening up a comfortable lead.”	Tim Pryor (D) Arkansas House:  1991-1994 Arkansas Attorney General:  1999-present MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.
Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colorado) Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) Colorado Senate:  1983-1991 U.S. House:  1991-1996 Washington Post, ABC, CBS:  Toss-up CLW:  Republican narrowly favored MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win. Cook:  “Our guess is that Allard maintains a slim lead … but is well under 50 percent.”	Tom Strickland (D) No prior elected office (attorney) Ran against Wayne Allard in 1996.
Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) Senate history:  3 terms (1985-present) U.S. House:  1975-1984 Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Democrat ABC:  Democrat favored CLW:  Democrat narrowly favored MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win. Cook:  “Although Harkin continues to maintain an advantage here, Ganske has closed the gap and this is a high single-digit competitive race that borders on but doesn't quite fall into the Toss Up column.”	Greg Ganske (R) U.S. House:  1995-present
Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota) Senate history:  2 terms (1991-present) No prior elected office Had previously pledged to only serve two terms, but now seeking third term. Washington Post:  leaning Democrat ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win. Cook:  “This race is in the margin of error today, regardless of whether Wellstone or Coleman is ahead and is destined to go down to the wire.”	Norm Coleman (R) Mayor of St. Paul (1993-2002)
Missouri Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Missouri) Senate history:  1 partial term (2001-2002) No prior elected office Appointed to fill term of late husband Mel Carnahan.  Missouri law has prompted this special election, and Carnahan is running to complete the remaining four years of her term. Washington Post:  leaning Democrat ABC, CBS:  Toss-up CLW:  Democrat narrowly favored Cook:  “Our assessment is that Carnahan may have a lead today, but it is not much outside the margin of error… Given that Missouri is a swing state, this race is likely to stay close until the end.”	Jim Talent (R) Missouri House:  1985-1992 U.S. House:  1993-2000 Lost Missouri Governor’s race in 2000. MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.
New Hampshire former seat of Bob Smith (R) John E. Sununu (R)  U.S. House:  1997-present  Sununu beat incumbent Sen. Bob Smith in New Hampshire’s primary election. Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win. Cook:  “[This race should prove to be] very close and could easily go either way.”	Jeanne Shaheen (D) New Hampshire Senate:  1990-1996 New Hampshire Governor:  1996-present
New Jersey Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-New Jersey) Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) U.S. House:  1983-1996 ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win. Cook:  “… [I]t appears that Torricelli will be in for the most difficult race of his career… [W]e have moved the race to the Toss Up column.”	Douglas Forrester (R) No prior elected office (professor, businessman) Washington Post:  leaning Republican
North Carolina former seat of Jesse Helms (R) Elizabeth Dole (R) No prior elected office U.S. Sec. of Transportation (1983-1987) U.S. Sec. of Labor (1989-1990) American Red Cross Pres. (1991-2000) Dole is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Jesse Helms. Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Republican ABC, CLW:  Republican favored. MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win. Cook:  “This should be a competitive general election, but Dole begins with a lead and the race stays in the Lean Republican column.”	Erskine Bowles (D) No prior elected office Small Business Admin. Dir. (1993-1994) Dep. White House Chief of Staff (1994-1995) White House Chief of Staff (1996-1998)
South Carolina former seat of Strom Thurmond (R) Lindsey Graham (R) South Carolina House:  1993-1994 U.S. House:  1995-present Graham is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Strom Thurmond. Washington Post, ABC:  Republican favored CBS:  leaning Republican CLW:  Graham narrowly favored Cook:  “Sanders is a solid candidate who will keep this race competitive.  Graham, though, currently holds the advantage in the race and as long as he does not make a serious mistake, he is in a good position to win the seat.”	Alex Sanders (D) No prior elected office (professor, attorney)  MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat upset win.
South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota) Senate history:  1 term (1997-present) South Dakota House:  1978-1982 South Dakota Senate:  1982-1986 U.S. House:  1987-1996 Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up Cook:  “We continue to believe… that this is a race that will be decided by a small number of voters… This race is as close as they get.”	John Thune (R) U.S. House:  1997-present MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win.
Tennessee former seat of Fred Thompson (R) Lamar Alexander (R) Tennessee Governor:  1979-1987 U.S. Sec. of Education:  1991-1993 Alexander is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Fred Thompson. Washington Post, CBS:  leaning Republican ABC:  Republican favored. CLW:  Republican narrowly favored MyDD.com:  Projected Republican win. Cook:  “The race has defied the conventional wisdom since the day it started and thus is worth watching pretty closely.  Having said that, Alexander begins the general election with the advantage but it is considerably less than it was several months ago.”	Bob Clement (D) Tennessee Public Svc. Cmsn.:  1973-1979 U.S. House:  1989-present
Texas former seat of Phil Gramm (R) John Cornyn (R) Bexar County District Judge:  1984-1990 Texas Supreme Court:  1990-1998 Texas Attorney General:  1998-present Cornyn is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Phil Gramm. Washington Post:  leaning Republican ABC, CBS, CLW:  Toss-up Cook:  “[This race] has a very long way to go and remains a toss up.”	Ron Kirk (D) Texas Secretary of State:  1994 Mayor of Dallas:  1995-2002 MyDD.com:  Projected Democrat win.

[caltrop]

I suspect you're wrong on NJ. Torricelli's numbers, from what I've read, look terrible.

[The only Republican in MA]

I totally agree. I checked the Star Ledger web site tonight and Forrester is at 47%, Torricelli 34%. Even with a +/-4 margin of error, that's 13%! Wow! The Torch is about to be extinguished.

[editto]

I agree.

This was just an attempt to gather information from various online sources I've been looking at into one brief listing. Predicting election outcomes is a shaky science at best -- case in point, the 2000 Presidential election.

My own personal view and prediction is that Democrats Bob Torricelli (NJ) and Tim Johnson (SD) will lose their seats to their Republican challengers. It's possible that Democrat Jean Carnahan will lose her seat to Jim Talent, but I don't think that's a safe bet at this point. It's also possible that the Republicans may lose one seat in Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchinson, so that might be offset anyway.

In any case, I think it's a relatively safe bet that we're looking a 51-48-1 GOP Senate next year.

[Jack Black]

I would say that our Republican Senator, in Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith is quite vulnerable. Oregon has elected Dem Gov. several elections running and went to Gore, by a thin margin, in 2000. The state is trending Dem.

I got a "non-partisan" brochure at my house from the Sierra Club urging me to vote for Bradburry, the Dem, today. What a joke campaign finance reform is if 401(c) can put out a blatently political add like that. Not that I care.

[caltrop]

I certainly hope you're right. As you say though, predictions this far out on races this close are really iffy. If I were forced to bet today, I'd bet the net change at +/- 1 seat.

[sweetliberty]

I am so very tired of these splits and narrow margins, especially knowing how the Rats use fraud liberally to pad their votes. We need in some of these races to leave them in the dust in some landslide victories that will bury them so deep that it will take 6 or 8 terms before they even see daylight again.

[slimer]

Mid tern elections depend on who gets off their duff and votes.

[wimpycat]

A point of clarification on the South Carolina Senate race poll numbers. The poll numbers you are looking at come from a Democratic pollster:

9.24.2002  
SANDERS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE: Garin-Hart-Yang leaked the following poll yesterday, and The Hotline has dutifully picked it up. Note that this poll ran while the "Council for a Livable World" ad was running, but before the flag burning ad went up on TV. If Sanders is closing, it's no wonder that Lindsey is going negative.

From the Hotline
SOUTH CAROLINA: Sanders Poll Has Graham Lead Down To Single Digits

A Garin-Hart-Yang (D) poll, conducted 9/18-19 for ex-College of Charleston pres. Alex Sanders (D), surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Hotline sources, 9/23). Tested: Sanders and Rep. Lindsey Graham (R-03).

General Election Matchup

9/18-19
Graham 46%
Sanders 38
DK/Other 16

Current Name ID
Graham 91%
Sanders 80

8/27-30
Graham 49%
Sanders 34
DK/Other 17

5/20-22
Graham 45%
Sanders 33
DK/Other 22

3/02
Graham 49%
Sanders 29
DK/Other 22

From the polling memo: "Thanks in large measure" to TV ads which highlight "the stark differences between the two candidates on the issue of Social Security privatization," Sanders has moved to within single digits of Graham. Moreover, Sanders "definitely has the potential to grow his support once he further increases" his name I.D. Among the "subsample" of voters "who recognize both candidates, the trial heat further narrows" to Graham 46% Sanders 42% (Hotline sources, 9/24).
5:46 PM
The source for this is the Wyeth Wire.

[jmaroneps37]

Most of these stink of Democrat pychological operations and very wishful thinking. Lets take a look, shall we?
Arkansas, Hutchinson is in trouble but; by how much? One poll - not identified as a Dem poll has him down 10, another, that is self identified as "leaning" Democrat the Zogby poll has Hutch up 3.
Col. Allard is in a tough fight, but has beaten Strickland before. Even.
Iowa If this was as open and shut as the rat polls want you to believe then why even include this one? Ans. Because the taping scandal will pull Harkin down maybe to defeat, Even.
Minn.Welfare is + 4 in the hard left Star Tribune poll and Coleman is + 6 in the Dem Zogby poll. I'll go with Coleman Welfare has too many minus factors and the people in Minn are strange voters.
Mo. The widow is even now but voter intensity is on Republican's side this is a pick up.
Now we get to some of this piece's more rediculous predictions.
N.H. The Greenburg ( Greenburg is the rats favorite pollster) has Sununu + 3 an Indie poll has Sununu + 9, say good night Jeanie.
N.J. The torch has put himself out. The rank and file rats
are saying no to him, the national rats are saying yeah torch you're a winner,Eagleton poll Forrester + 13!
N.C. Dole is + 23 in a Zogby poll That's 23!!!
S.C. Anybody that thinks a rat has the slightest chance of beating Lindsay Graham in South Carolina is on drugs.
Texas Cornyn will hold the seat. Texas will NOT say no to W on this one and Kirk has made some important mistakes that will not go away.
Tenn. Are you kidding?
Now for some Dutch uncle talk. Listen carefully. Dash hole has made this one personal. It's his Johnson versus, W's (man) W's will prove to be the biggest on election day. W out polls lil tommy by 15 points in S.D.
Finally, don't bet you rent money that Mary Landrieu will hold on either. The strategy of flooding the ballot with alternatives to keep her under 50% is working 46% in a recent poll. If she has to run off with #2, likely Cooksey, Rep. voter intensity could very well do to her what Coverdale did to Flowler in '92, in Georgia. THis cycle has been Nationalized by W and Rove. People are listening to them and indicating that they will vote for the national good over local issues.

[Dittohead_2]

One problem: Last week 37 states had primary elections and only 17% of voting age actually turned out to the polls to vote!

What if we had an elction and no one showed up?

[editto]

Any election really comes down to turnout. It's sad that more people don't take the time to exercise their right to vote.

Here's hoping for an excellent turnout by GOP voters this election. I know I'll be voting bright and early (but not often) come November 5!

[Mo1]

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