The contract award comes with an order for 25 million doses. If everything goes according to plan, the vaccine will be through safety by the end of 2003, so presumably the stockpile could be in place by early 2004. That gives us about 18 months to put in place the infrastructure for high-speed, mass-distribution to millions of people after an attack is detected. That piece is being put in place, use Saddam's non-existent smallpox threat as a stalking horse.
Assuming Bush's plan is essentially to devote his first term to removing Saddam from the world stage -- e very reasonable objective with a realistic time-frame ("Saddam better remember, I'm a very patient man"), then I could see a pincer movement war starting next spring over the weapons inspections pretext, climaxing with a showdown in Bagdhad in spring of 2004. On this plan, Bush could have Saddam out six months before the next presidential election, which sounds about right.
My main concern would be whether we can really get the infrastructure in place to make a serious dent in casualties after, say, an NYC subway anthrax dispersal, and whether we have any decontamination technology on that time frame that could save us from having to totally right off the cities where the releases occur. The more I think about those problems, the less optimistic I am about a solution, unfortunately. Thus, I am far from discounting the possibility that Bush may simply put on a song-and-dance over the weapons stuff, and let Saddam off with a nod and wink ("Not guilty, but don't do it again!"). Powell is obviously pushing that option here, but to what end is the question.
How are we in a stronger position to retaliate after his next attack? Why, if we dare not publicly point the finger at him now, should he be deterred, as his threat becomes more credible and ours less so?