Poll: Dead Heat in Colo. Senate Race [Allard up 41-38]

Colorado Incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard, Democrat Tom Strickland in Dead Heat, Another Poll Shows

D E N V E R, Oct. 15 — The second poll in four days shows Republican Sen. Wayne Allard and Democratic challenger Tom Strickland in a dead heat just three weeks before the election.

The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed 41 percent supported Allard and 38 percent supported Strickland, with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points. Fourteen percent were undecided.

The poll, released Monday, was sponsored by The Denver Post, KUSA-TV and KOA radio.

A survey last week for the Rocky Mountain News and KCNC-TV showed Allard with a 39-35 lead over Strickland with a sampling error margin of 4.5 percentage points.

Fifty-eight percent of the 500 likely voters surveyed by Denver-based Ciruli Associates said negative ads have lowered their opinions of both candidates.

"Neither of them can pull ahead or even move," pollster Floyd Ciruli said. "They're stuck in an orgy of negativity."

Poll update. Also some good news at bottom (see bold text) which should help out Allard.

Denver Post Capitol Bureau

Wednesday, October 16, 2002 - A majority of Colorado voters don't know of Rollie Heath, the Democrats' candidate for governor, with less than three weeks before the election. A new poll by Ciruli Associates released Tuesday found that 64 percent of registered voters either aren't familiar with Heath or have no opinion of him, while Republican Gov. Bill Owens' approval ratings remained at 74 percent.

"Unless something changes very quickly, this is going to be a blowout," said pollster Floyd Ciruli. "Heath is the candidate for governor, and many Democrats can't name him. They don't know enough about him to say if they like him, much less support him."

The survey found that fewer people would vote for Heath if the election were held now compared with those who said they would vote for him in July. Then, 28 percent said they would vote for him, versus 21 percent who would vote for him now.

Meanwhile, 64 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Owens if the election were held today, including 34 percent of Democrats polled.

"You don't get 34 percent of Democrats unless you've convinced them you're interested in their priorities and are not an intense partisan threat," Ciruli said.

The survey of 500 registered voters was conducted between Wednesday and Saturday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It was done for The Denver Post, 9News and KOA radio.

Heath said he was undaunted by the numbers.

"If I depended on the polls, I would never have gotten in the race," he said. "No one thought I'd win the Democratic nomination. That surprised a lot of people. I firmly believe we will surprise more" in the campaign's final days.

Heath is preparing to hit the airwaves with a television ad in the last 10 days of the campaign, which Ciruli said is likely to improve his poll position.

Heath became the Democratic nominee after two better-known candidates dropped out to run for Congress, believing Owens was nearly impossible to beat this election.

The Owens camp was elated by the poll results.

"I think the number of Democrats voting for Owens is great news," said Cinamon Watson, Owens' campaign spokeswoman. "It looks like Rollie Heath has gained no traction except as someone who wants to raise taxes and attack Gov. Owens."

According to the survey, 59 percent thought Colorado was headed in the right direction, compared with 30 percent who thought it was on the wrong track.

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