Race Gets Tighter For Md. Gubernatorial Candidates (Ehrlich 47, Kennedy Townsend 46)

NBC$ ^ | Oct. 30, 2002 | Mason Dixon Poll

[jern]

WASHINGTON -- The two gubernatorial candidates in Maryland are working hard to get out the vote just one week before the general elections, NEWS4 reports. The latest NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Ehrlich is once again leading Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And, voter turn out could be a key in the campaign's final days, NEWS4 reports.

The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday shows Ehrlich taking a one percentage point lead over Townsend. It has been a back-and-forth battle, but Ehrlich currently has 47 percent to Townsend's 46 percent.

Last month, it was Townsend who was ahead by one point. But, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the race continues to be a dead heat.

Dr. Sandra O'Connor, a professor of government at American University, talked to NEWS4 about the campaign landscape. "Everyone wants to be the person with momentum going into the election the weekend before," she said.

NEWS4 reports Townsend has an overwhelming lead in Baltimore city, and is well ahead of her opponent in the Washington suburbs -- Montgomery and Prince George's counties.

But, Ehrlich is expected to win every other region of the state. The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows him leading in Baltimore County, the central Maryland suburbs, the eastern shore and western Maryland. (See map, at left.)

Larry Harris, who is with Mason-Dixon polls, spoke with NEWS4 about the campaigns, and how they've progressed.

"He's been running pretty much a mistake-free campaign. He seems to have been able to successfully blunt the charges of being a right-wing Republican, or, the Democratic party would say, he's been able to disguise his record," Harris said.

Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below.
Male voters

• Ehrlich, 55 percent
• Townsend, 42 percent
  
  White voters
  
• Ehrlich, 58 percent
• Townsend, 34 percent
  
  But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.
  African-American voters
  
• Townsend, 86 percent
• Ehrlich, 9 percent
  
  Women voters
• Townsend, 51 percent
• Ehrlich, 39 percent
  

  Analysts say voter turnout will be a major factor in determining who will become Maryland's next governor.

  O'Connor told NEWS4 a low turnout could cost Townsend the election.

  "She's got to get voters out in traditionally African-American neighborhoods, she's running very strongly with African-American voters. And, she's running very strongly with women voters. So, she has to make certain that those two groups, and people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.

  O'Connor says the weekend before the election is always important, but this year takes on special significance. She says many voters in the Washington-area haven't been tuned into politics because of the sniper killings. She says a lot of decisions could be made this weekend, and both parities are making an extraordinary effort to get out the vote.

  Harris said if Ehrlich can cut into Townsend's base -- just a little -- then he'll be the one headed to Annapolis.

  "He's only gotta make a smidgen of difference. The race is so close at this point, he's doing what he's got to do in this state for a Republican to get elected. And, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not doing what a Democrat has to do in Baltimore city, Prince George's County and even in progressive Montgomery County," he said.

  Click here for more politics coverage on NBC4.com.
  
  Stay tuned to NEWS4 and refresh NBC4.com often for up-to-the-minute Decision 2002 team coverage.

  Copyright 2002 by nbc4.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

  
  
  
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[rintense]

Oh come on.

[Redbob]

'"So, she has to make certain that ...people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.'

The Dims still haven't learned that, while there may be people who are "concerned" about gun-control, the only ones who reliably get out and VOTE because of gun-control are the NRA members!

[pabianice]

Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below. Male voters: Ehrlich, 55 percent, Townsend, 42 percent; White voters: Ehrlich, 58 percent; Townsend, 34 percent

See? SEE? It's those damn evil white males again...

[pollwatcher]

U R right about that. It could be '94 all over again, with those mysterious, last minute, winning DIM votes appearing from the City. Let's hope Ehrlich's wolunteers can keep an eye on everything and that enough of those buses break down!

[cake_crumb]

WOW!! First, three Islamakazis blow themselves up when their bomb prematurely jihadulated (to swipe a term from another FReeper) and NOW, Bubba-buddy Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is in TROUBLE in the Maryland race??? This is almost more good news than I can TAKE in one day!

GOOOO MARYLAND VOTERS, OUST THAT B*TCH!!

[Maryland Man]

If this is a repeat of the Saurbrey defeat, there will be many precincts in Baltimore City with 100 percent of eligible voters voting. Even the dead ones made it to the polls, the ones in prison, in hospitals, etc.

The typical statewide election in Maryland mirrors that graphic in the article.

[no dems]

I hope he creams that extreme, left-wing, loud mouth, feminist hag.

[jjm2111]

At least they made the Dems red this time. Much more appropriate.

[Man of the Right]

Gotta beware of that last-minute Democrat vote.

Win or lose, Townsend is a weak candidate. Opposing the death penalty was a spectacularly ill-timed initiative that may yet bite Maryland residents in the sniper trial.

[PLMerite]

"The undecideds will decide this one."

Them and the Dead. The Zombie vote is always a critical factor in Maryland, too. They usually don't come out until right before (or after) the polls close for the rest of us.

[aristeides]

Isn't U.S. Attorney DiBiaggio supposed to be keeping an eye on vote fraud this election?

[aristeides]

We've got to find a way to make MD leftists aware of the fact that KKT is the goddaughter of one of their betes noires, Sen. Joe McCarthy.

[apollo11]

Actually, something called "The Maryland Poll", conducted by Potomac Survey Research in Bethesda, MD, has Ehrlich up by 4 points, which is just outside the margin of error of 4%. According to last night's Annapolis paper, the poll was among 869 likely voters and was "quota'd" to reflect the racial, partisan, age and geographic breakdown of likely November 5 voters.

I know that for Ehrlich to win, he needs to "lose by less" in PG, Montgomery and Balto. City. But does anyone out there know by how much he needs to close the gap in those three places to win?

[FourtySeven]

Let's look at this picture again.

If there was ever a clearer picture of how this state is "run", here it is. All the people, crammed into the Baltimore/Metro region, where the majority of the population lives, is hopelessly deluded by the misinformation and lies of the Democratic party, and the rest of the state, a good 90% by a pictoral estimation suffers because of this ignorance!

I hope the undecided vote does turn out more than in past years, or else this may be the most bitter loss I personally can remember for conservatives in quite some time.

[FourtySeven]

Why do I stay in this state?

I ask myself this question daily.

[FourtySeven]

I know a bunch of them. Many are professionals who have some tie to the government - lawyer, etc., or are married to very wealthy men and have angst over social injustice. (I'm not making this up). From nearly all of them I hear one thing: abortion, abortion, abortion. One female lawyer I know has two small children. I asked her why this was such an issue for her; she replied 'no old guy is going to tell me what to do'. I hear that over and over from these women. They WANT to raise taxes to fund social programs. The are rabid environmentalists - many own boats or hike. They think Connie Morella is CONSERVATIVE.

A truer assessment of the typical MD female has never been uttered.

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

I'm serious. I've always found it hard to relate with someone who is so foolish. Guess that's just me.

[evad]

The undecidedes will decide this one.

More like the dead people will decide this one.

[jackbill]

Actually, something called "The Maryland Poll", conducted by Potomac Survey Research in Bethesda, MD, has Ehrlich up by 4 points, which is just outside the margin of error of 4%.

That was the poll sponsored by the Baltimore Sun and the Gazette newspapers and it had a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. It was 48% Ehrlich and 44% Townsend.

Ehrlich has the Big Mo.

Regarding the lopsided vote by blacks I believe that there will be a surprise in this race. Either a lot of them will "secretly" vote for Ehrlich or just not vote. Especially in Baltimore City.