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New poll shows Davis leading Simon by seven points
SJ Mercury News ^ | 11/01/02 | Erica Werner

Posted on 11/01/2002 7:46:36 AM PST by NormsRevenge

Edited on 04/13/2004 3:29:53 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

LOS ANGELES - With the election days away, Democratic Gov. Gray Davis maintains a seven-point lead over Republican challenger Bill Simon, according to a poll released Friday by the nonpartisan Field Institute of San Francisco.

Davis received support from 41 percent of likely voters in the poll, while Simon's support stood at 34 percent. The margin was unchanged from the last Field Poll, released in early September, and from the poll before that in July.


(Excerpt) Read more at bayarea.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calgov2002; davis; simon
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Analysts view Davis' inability to break out and take a commanding lead over Simon as a testament to the governor's enduring unpopularity with voters, which dates back to his perceived bungling of last year's energy crisis.

"perceived bungling"? :-|
1 posted on 11/01/2002 7:46:36 AM PST by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge
Let pray for LOTS of rain in Los Angeles throughout Election Day, November 5, to suppress all those illegals voting for GRAY Davis!
2 posted on 11/01/2002 7:48:53 AM PST by HighRoadToChina
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To: HighRoadToChina
Lets pray for an earthquake in SFO on election day ----

(just large enough to discourage voter turnout, but small enough to avaoid serous loss of life, perhpas strikeing only leftists, like th Biblical Egyptian death, which killed no Jews),

--- where Davis' biggest support is.

3 posted on 11/01/2002 7:54:14 AM PST by FReethesheeples
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To: FReethesheeples
I'll agree to that!
4 posted on 11/01/2002 7:55:09 AM PST by HighRoadToChina
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To: Coop; BlackRazor
Poll ping. Simon is in the hunt and getting momentum. Grayout is going to go down. Watch....
5 posted on 11/01/2002 7:55:22 AM PST by eureka!
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To: NormsRevenge; ElkGroveDan; Saundra Duffy; Gophack; RonDog; Ernest_at_the_Beach
Why is Simon supported by only 63% of Republicans?

I've noticed that a lot of Republicans here would have much rather had Riordan, but they base their arguments not on opposition to Simon, but on what they think of as a higher probability of a Riordan win. Where are all these Republicans who support Gray Davis?

Most of the Riordan crowd have declared, in various posts, that they will be voting for Simon but think him to be a lost cause. But if this Field Poll is similar to other Field Polls, it has a 5-10% bias towards Democrats, making this race a dead heat, dependent entirely on turnout.

And in turnout, I'm confident Simon has the edge, since even Davis supporters don't think much of the man.

D
6 posted on 11/01/2002 8:22:37 AM PST by daviddennis
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To: AnnaZ; Mercuria; feinswinesuksass; DoughtyOne; Cinnamon Girl; Tony in Hawaii; Bob J; diotima; ...
With the election days away, Democratic Gov. Gray Davis maintains a seven-point lead over Republican challenger Bill Simon, according to a poll released Friday by the nonpartisan Field Institute of San Francisco...
As I posted on another thread, perhaps a little HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE is in order here concerning the "Field poll."

From FRIDAY, March 1, 2002 - just prior to the primary election - at :

Field poll shows Simon ahead as primary nears

Alexa Haussler
Associated Press
March 01, 2002 — 1:07 p.m.
SACRAMENTO — Businessman Bill Simon and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan crisscrossed California trading attacks Wednesday as a new poll showed Simon the front-runner in a race once considered Riordan's to lose.

With the GOP gubernatorial primary five days away, a poll released Wednesday by San Francisco's Field Institute showed the conservative Simon with support from 37 percent of likely voters, the moderate Riordan with 31 percent and Secretary of State Bill Jones with 9 percent.

In the last Field poll, released Jan. 29, Riordan enjoyed a 33-point lead over Simon. The poll has a margin of error for likely GOP voters of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

About 23 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed had not decided who they will vote for Tuesday. And now, a race that was once Riordan's to lose is "a toss-up now between Simon and Riordan," said Sacramento political science professor Tim Hodson...

more
...and from WEDNESDAY, March 6, 2002 - at
Simon Caps Surge With California Primary Win
NewsMax.com Wires
Wednesday, March 6, 2002
LOS ANGELES -- Bill Simon completed a late surge that began with him trailing by more than 30 points in some polls and ended Tuesday night when he was declared the Republican nominee for governor of California.

The 50-year-old investment company executive and son of former Treasury Secretary William Simon never trailed as the ballots came in. He had 49 percent of the vote with 77.6 percent of the votes counted.

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, the early favorite in the race, trailed with 30.5 percent, while California Secretary of State Bill Jones, the only Republican to hold a major statewide office, was running third with 18.2 percent of the vote.

more
"Bottom line" for the much vaunted "Field poll" -
They REPORTED on Friday (3/1/02) - just BEFORE the primary:
Simon = 37
Riordan = 31

undecided = 23
...but what HAPPENED on Wednesday (3/6/02) - just AFTER the primary:
Simon = 49
Riordan = 31
Bill Simon went from:
37 (in the last pre-election Field poll "prediction") to
49 (in the actual election "results") over the weekend of the PRIMARY...
...a TWELVE POINT swing!
Why does ANYONE believe these bozos?
7 posted on 11/01/2002 8:34:00 AM PST by RonDog
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To: daviddennis
MSG to Democrats--- Davis is going to win.

MSG to GOP--- Get out and vote.
8 posted on 11/01/2002 8:35:13 AM PST by bonesmccoy
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To: RonDog
About 23 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed had not decided who they will vote for Tuesday.

And now, a race that was once Riordan's to lose is "a toss-up now between Simon and Riordan," said Sacramento political science professor Tim Hodson... - as reported by the Associated Press

And talk about BIAS, why is it that when a LIBERAL RINO like Riordan is down by six points in the last Field poll before the PRIMARY - with twenty-three percent "undecided" - the Associated Press quotes a guy who calls the race a "toss-up," but when a CONSERVATIVE like Bill Simon is down by seven in the SAME "last Field poll before the election" - with twenty-five percent "undecided" or third party - they report:
To have 25 percent of California voters undecided or choosing a third-party candidate this close to an election is extraordinary, said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo.

``That's astounding,'' DiCamillo said. ``It's a total rejection of both the major party candidates.''

I trust what I have seen on the Internet, what I have heard on talk radio, and what I have experienced IN THE STREETS...
WE WILL "Dump DAVIS!"

9 posted on 11/01/2002 8:49:20 AM PST by RonDog
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To: RonDog
Anyone writing in Riordan is wasting their time and their vote since those votes will not even be counted. Down to crunch time and the smart money is on the Dimwit being Simonized on Tuesday. Governor Bill Simon...music to the ears!
10 posted on 11/01/2002 8:53:26 AM PST by kellynla
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To: RonDog
Just saw that "I'm Bill Simon" ad. Best TV ad I've seen him do.

Now he needs to add some substance.
11 posted on 11/01/2002 8:56:30 AM PST by Carry_Okie
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To: daviddennis
Keep working hard to get out the vote!
12 posted on 11/01/2002 9:03:01 AM PST by Coop
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To: RonDog
Just saw that "I'm Bill Simon" ad. Best TV ad I've seen him do.

Now he needs to add some substance. Schoos, poverty, traffic, taxes, jobs...
13 posted on 11/01/2002 9:06:09 AM PST by Carry_Okie
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To: daviddennis; *calgov2002; Grampa Dave; Carry_Okie; SierraWasp; Gophack; RonDog; ElkGroveDan; ...
Memories:

California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis

AND......................

...to see what bad, bad things Davis has done... - CLICK HERE

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register




14 posted on 11/01/2002 9:07:07 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: NormsRevenge
People need to pray for righteousness to reign in CA. Pray folks. Nothing else will work except getting out to vote.
15 posted on 11/01/2002 9:24:18 AM PST by Marysecretary
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To: NormsRevenge
This isn't good news for Davis.

First, the poll is registered voters, which skews democratic in most cases. It also has him 9% short of victory, meaning, even if this poll were right, he needs the 14% undecided to either

1) Not vote
2) Vote for him
3) Vote for a 3rd party (as 8% are)

The problem is that 2 & 3 aren't too likely, since most 3rd party voters know well in advance how their voting. Usually even before they have a candidate. Undecideds also rarely vote for the incumbant if they are still undecided only one week from the election. They already know what the incumbant is about, and they've determined they don't like it.

That leaves him needing the undecided voters to sit this one out, and for the registered vs. likely democratic skew to be incorrect in this election cycle. Personally, I don't see either one as likely.
16 posted on 11/01/2002 9:26:58 AM PST by sharktrager
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To: sharktrager
I'm hopeful that the idealistic liberals will either stay home, or vote Green in protest.

I too think Simon has the momentum here, in spite of the way the Riordanites have undermined him. All he needs is for good people to get out and vote. Simon is honest, good-hearted, a big donor to charity, a capable businessman. What more do we expect?
17 posted on 11/01/2002 9:32:56 AM PST by Cicero
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To: NormsRevenge
Click here to download the California Republican Liberty Caucus' tri-fold pamphlet on the governor's race!

It's a .pdf file, so you'll need Acrobat Reader... it's free, and chances are good you already have it on your computer. Try the link and see.

Print it using the printer-icon button in the Acrobat toolbar in your browser (not File|Print in your browser's menu). It's intended for double-sided printing using single pieces of paper-- no stapling needed if you do it that way, and saves trees! ;-) Print one side, then invert the paper and feed it through a second time for the second side. Fold, and sally forth to get out the vote!

Give this to friends, walk your neighborhood, take it to stores, give a wad of 'em to your school, hand some out at your house of worship, at clubs, at stores and small businesses...

Let's retire Gray Davis!

Let's show the media and RINOs that "It's the base, stupid!"

Let's show Gray Davis that money can't buy him love ...or re-election!

Freepers and RLC activists can claim considerable credit for nominating Bill Simon, so now let's elect him!

18 posted on 11/01/2002 9:45:44 AM PST by RightOnTheLeftCoast
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To: HighRoadToChina
ever notice that ANY poll showing a democrat ahead is heralded as breaking news, but never any polls showing republicans ahead?
19 posted on 11/01/2002 9:46:05 AM PST by Mr. K
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To: eureka!
Poll ping. Simon is in the hunt and getting momentum. Grayout is going to go down. Watch....

BUMP!

20 posted on 11/01/2002 9:46:42 AM PST by Gophack
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