Posted on 11/03/2002 1:34:25 PM PST by GeneD
Filed at 3:45 p.m. ET
Being selected the U.S. candidate for the 2012 Summer Olympics was the easy part for New York. Now comes the true challenge -- winning the international race.
Backers of New York's bid were ecstatic after beating out San Francisco in a vote of the U.S. Olympic Committee on Saturday to become the nation's official entry for 2012.
It marked the end of a five-year domestic selection process that began with eight candidate cities. But that was just a warmup for the high-stakes global contest which could feature a dozen contenders.
``We're going to win,'' New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg declared.
Not so fast.
New York might have the financial, social and cultural weight as America's most famous city, not to mention the symbolic impact of rebuilding from the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
But those elements may count for little in the big picture of Olympic geopolitics. For a number of reasons, New York may be a long shot in a race that will culminate with a vote by the International Olympic Committee in 2005.
``No doubt this was a hard-fought contest,'' IOC president Jacques Rogge said after the USOC decision. ``Congratulations to New York. We look forward to receiving their official bid to enter into the race to host the 2012 Olympic Games.''
That was the diplomatic line.
There are some harsher realities for New York and the United States to consider.
First, did the USOC pick the right candidate to appeal to IOC voters?
Dick Pound, a senior and influential IOC member from Canada, said San Francisco would have been a better choice.
``I personally have never thought New York would be a suitable city for the games, before or after 9-11,'' he said. ``It's too big, the infrastructure too unwieldy. The games in New York would disappear without a trace.
``I don't think with something as important as the Olympics Games to the IOC that the members are going to vote out of some misguided sympathy or solidarity for New York, which is as far as I can see the only card they have to play.''
Earlier, Rogge dismissed suggestions that a New York bid would benefit from sympathy following the terror attacks.
``The IOC in my humble opinion will not be led by emotional issues,'' Rogge said in a conference call Tuesday. ``The best bid will win on technical merits. The New Yorkers themselves would want to win only on the quality of the bid, and not the emotional issue.''
Italian IOC member Mario Pescante said European members would have preferred San Francisco because they consider it ``the most European city in the United States.''
Dieter Landsberg-Velen, a vice president of Germany's national Olympic committee said: ``From my point of view, this is a favorable decision for the German candidate. ``I don't think that New York is such an attractive rival as San Francisco.''
Geography could work against New York.
The United States hosted four Olympics in the last 22 years (Lake Placid 1980, Los Angeles 1984, Atlanta 1996 and Salt Lake City 2002), more than any other country.
The 2012 field is expected to include several European cities. There will be definite bids from Spain (either Madrid or Seville) and Germany (Duesseldorf, Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Leipzig or Hamburg). Moscow and Istanbul, Turkey, are likely entries. London, Paris, and Budapest, Hungary, are possible contenders, with Rome a possibility.
Also, Toronto, Rio de Janeiro, and Havana are potential bidders. Asia and Africa could also enter candidates.
The deadline for submission of bids to the IOC is July 15, 2003.
The Olympics have never been held in South America or Africa, and Rogge said a viable candidate from those continents would have an edge. But Africa looks unlikely to bid, and Brazil's current economic problems don't help Rio's chances.
The decision should come down to Europe vs. North America.
The 2010 Winter Olympics could impact the race.
Vancouver, British Columbia, and Salzburg, Austria, are the two top contenders, along with Pyeongchang, South Korea. The winner will be selected by the IOC in June.
There is a widely held theory that if the games go to Vancouver in 2010, it's very unlikely -- given the IOC's tendency of continental rotation -- the Olympics would go back to North America two years later.
``There's a lot of interest in Europe for 2012, and a preponderance of the votes are in Europe or tied to Europe,'' Pound said. ``The way you try to increase the chances for Europe in 2012 is to take North America out of play. The way you do that is to give the 2010 games to North America.''
If Salzburg wins the 2010 games, Pound said, North America would be the favorite for 2012 -- but not New York.
Pound said Toronto, which lost bids for the 1996 and 2008 games, will almost certainly enter the race if Vancouver loses.
``It would be the third time Toronto would be presenting the best bid in the race, and you'd have the advantage of saying, `You've got all the North American advantages but you are dealing with Canada,' `` he said. ``At a certain point, you end up owing a country that has presented great candidates.''
But not everyone shares Pound's analysis.
Several IOC members said the geographic factor has been overestimated, noting that Europe won back-to-back games for summer 2004 (Athens, Greece) and winter 2006 (Turin, Italy).
Pescante, the Italian member, said a candidate from the Americas would have a great chance in 2012 following summer games in Australia (Sydney) in 2000, Europe in 2004 and Asia (Beijing) in 2008.
Even if Canada wins the 2010 games, he said, there would be no reason why the United States couldn't prevail for 2012. He discounted the theory that Europeans would work together to derail a North American bid.
``Europe is a continent, not a federal republic,'' he said. ``It's already hard to enough to find unity in the European Union.''
Other factors could come into play.
Israeli member Alex Gilady said the possible U.S. war against Iraq could impact on the New York bid.
``Looking at the crystal ball at this point, one can imagine in six months that we may be in a very different world, for better or worse, if there is a war in the Gulf,'' he said. ``If it happens, we will need some time to assess the consequences. Right now, it's way too early, and unnecessary, to paint any picture of the world in 2012.''
And what about the anti-U.S. sentiment fueled by the Salt Lake City bid scandal?
``That's not playing any more,'' said Rogge, citing the successful staging of the 2002 winter games.
IOC members ``don't hate America,'' Pound said. ``It's annoying to have to deal with some of their foibles, but they always put on good games, you don't have to worry about that.''
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