Congress likely to keep balance
Posted on 11/04/2002 5:46:56 AM PST by MeekOneGOP
Congress likely to keep balance
No matter who wins, margins of control expected to be small
11/04/2002
WASHINGTON - For all the money and the campaigning and the negative ads, Tuesday's election could turn out to be something of a wash.
President Bush and the Republicans still hope to regain full control of Congress. Democrats still see a good chance of retaining some leverage over the agenda by keeping their Senate majority.
But either way, both houses may be so closely divided that compromises will still be needed to pass major legislation in areas such as homeland security and prescription drugs for seniors. Neither side will be able to muscle its preferred bills into law.
Republicans, predicting an unusually good midterm showing for the party holding the White House, seem headed for another two years in control of the House, possibly with a slightly increased margin.
Though a half-dozen Senate races remain too close to call, Democrats may be able to hold the narrow margin that has enabled them to block many of the president's judicial nominations and legislative proposals, such as extending last year's tax cuts and encouraging oil drilling in Alaska.
The biggest turnover Tuesday is expected in the nation's statehouses. Democrats, helped by the retirement of many GOP governors and the budget problems in many states, are expected to make major gains, especially in the industrial Midwest.
Mr. Bush spent the final weekend of the campaign barnstorming through about 15 key states and districts, seeking to boost GOP chances by spurring turnout. Demo-crats, meanwhile, hammered away at lagging economic indicators to make the election a referendum on Mr. Bush's economic policies.
But the election has lacked any overriding national theme, leaving little sign that the economic situation is helping either party, "much to the frustration of the Democrats," said independent pollster John Zogby.
Though all 435 House seats and 36 of the governorships are at stake Tuesday, the focus will be on the results in the 34 Senate races.
Analyst Stuart Rothenberg, predicting that the GOP would hold the House, said he sees continued gridlock even if Republicans regain the Senate because under Senate rules, it often takes 60 votes to pass major measures.
"You're not going to get the Republican agenda passed in a 50-50 Senate," said Mr. Rothenberg, publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report.
"You may get some judges approved, but you won't get ANWR [oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge], you won't get the Republican prescription drug bill," he said.
If Democrats retain the Senate, they "will be in a position to prevent President Bush and the Republicans from doing some things that they believe would be harmful to their interests and the country's interests," said Tom Mann of the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
He added that, "Even if Democrats regain the House and hold the Senate, which in my view is a distinct possibility, they would not be in a position to push into law an alternative agenda."
The results will also be interpreted as a measure of Mr. Bush's political clout, noted analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California.
"If, after taking the three weeks before the election to campaign almost continuously, he does not get back the Senate or perhaps loses the House, that is going to be interpreted as a negative for Bush and send a message internationally, whether or not it's deserved, that his power is eroding."
But the biggest impact on Mr. Bush would come if his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, loses his re-election bid, she added. "That is going to be looked on as a referendum on George W. Bush and a referendum on the 2000 election."
Late polls showed Jeb Bush with a small but growing lead over Democrat Bill McBride.
The Senate
Races for six seats appear to be especially close - three now held by Democrats in Missouri, Minnesota and South Dakota and three held by Republicans in Arkansas, Colorado and New Hampshire.
Four incumbent senators appear to be in trouble: Democrats Jean Carnahan of Missouri and Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Republicans Tim Hutchinson of Arkansas and Wayne Allard of Colorado.
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Mr. Johnson is running slightly ahead in late polls with Rep. John Thune, one of several candidates recruited by the White House.
Mr. Hutchinson, who drew some criticism from conservatives after divorcing his wife and marrying an aide, is struggling to overcome state Attorney General Mark Pryor, the son of David Pryor, a former governor and senator. Mr. Allard is in a tight contest with former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland, whom he beat six years ago.
In Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman is taking on former Vice President Walter Mondale, a ballot replacement for Sen. Paul Wellstone, killed Oct. 25 in a plane crash. Two polls gave a small lead to Mr. Mondale, who held the seat until elected vice president in 1976, and a third poll put Mr. Coleman ahead.
In New Hampshire, polls show a close race between three-term Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and GOP Rep. John Sununu, who unseated conservative Sen. Bob Smith in a bitter primary.
Beyond those races, each party was hoping for a late upset in the South. Republicans think that in Georgia, Rep. Saxby Chambliss is closing in on Democratic Sen. Max Cleland. In North Carolina, Democrats say that former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles has a chance of upsetting Republican Elizabeth Dole, a former Cabinet secretary and presidential candidate.
Democrats got a boost last month when former Sen. Frank Lautenberg became the Senate candidate in New Jersey, replacing scandal-plagued Sen. Robert Torricelli, who withdrew in the face of almost certain defeat.
All of those close races still may not decided control of the Senate. If Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., fails to poll 50 percent of the vote in the state's nonpartisan primary, she would be forced her into a Dec. 7 runoff against the top Republican of several on the ballot.
The House
Most analysts see Republicans maintaining control and perhaps slightly increasing their slim margin. The party in the White House rarely gains House seats in a midterm election, though Democrats did so in 1998.
About two-thirds of the closest races are in districts held by the GOP, meaning Democrats would have to make inroads there to regain the House for the first time in eight years.
In any case, the House is expected to wind up close to the current division of 223 Republicans, 211 Democrats and 1 independent, who votes with the Democrats.
Mr. Rothenberg, whose newsletter closely tracks House races, said Republicans lead in 220 races, Democrats in 207, and eight are tossups.
He said Democrats can win only if "voters to go to the polls on Nov. 5 intending to send a message of disapproval to the president on the economy, and right now there's no indication they're going to do that in enough places to matter."
Republicans are favored in three of four races between incumbents who were thrown together by redistricting, and about 10 other incumbents in both parties are in danger of losing.
In the closest Texas race, Republican Jeb Hensarling is slightly favored over Democrat Ron Chapman in the Dallas area's 5th District.
Though it takes 218 seats to control the House, the Democrats probably need to win at least 219 to elevate Minority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri to speaker. Rep. Ralph Hall, D-Rockwall, has said that he will vote for the most conservative candidate for speaker, which probably means he would back the incumbent, Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.
Governors
Democrats appear likely to pick up several large and medium-sized states, including Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kansas, New Mexico and Arizona, but their gains may be offset somewhat by losses in such small states as New Hampshire and Alaska.
Republican challengers Bob Riley and Mark Sanford are also waging strong races against Democratic Govs. Don Siegelman of Alabama and Jim Hodges of South Carolina respectively.
The likely changes in party control reflect the fact that many states face financial crunches as a result of the economic slowdown, analysts said.
"It's not a good time to be a governor," Mr. Zogby said.
A number of states have very close races.
They include Massachusetts, where Treasurer Shannon O'Brien is in a tight race with GOP businessman Mitt Romney, and Maryland, where a late poll showed Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the eldest child of Robert F. Kennedy, slightly behind Republican Rep. Robert Ehrlich.
Governors likely to be re-elected include Democrats Roy Barnes of Georgia, Tom Vilsack of Iowa and Gray Davis of California and Republicans Rick Perry of Texas, Bill Owens of Colorado, Mike Johanns of Nebraska, Kenny Guinn of Nevada, George Pataki of New York, Jim Geringer of Wyoming, John Rowland of Connecticut, Bob Taft of Ohio, Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho. In Oklahoma, Republican Rep. Steve Largent is favored over Democrat Brad Henry.
In the two states that have independent governors, neither of whom is seeking re-election, Democrat John Baldacci is favored in Maine, while the Minnesota race to succeed Gov. Jesse Ventura appears to be a three-way tossup among Independent Tim Penny, Democrat Roger Moe and Republican Tim Pawlenty.
E-mail cleubsdorf@dallasnews.com
The only way to compromise with a RAT is after you have him/her down and your bayonet through there belly! Then you can negotiate with them as to whether your will twist it before you pull it out...or not!
Sorry about that...I was enjoying the image too much, I guess! :-)
The Brookings Institution is Liberal. The Heritage Foundation is always described as Conservative but the Brookings Institution is described as nonpartisan.
One more example of subtle bias.
The key word of the day in Senate races is "JUDGES!" Nothing else needs to be said.
In the House the key word is "OBSTRUCTIONIST" if the RATs would take control.
Don't care if you have to hold your nose for a Republican this time, do it and make sure we get as many seats as we can. The Libertarian candidate in S.D. saw that he could help Thune and he withdrew asking Libs to support Thune. We have to have control of both Houses or nothing is going to get done and we will have given Hillary Clinton a shot at 2004! Send the Clinton DemocRATs packing!
Vote Right!!! Ollie North fer VA Senator Write-In Campaign...let's give Jawn "the RINO" Wahnah and slap accross the noggin'...MUD
FReegards...MUD
Arkansas and Colorado FReepers, we must retain these two VITAL Senate seats...GOTV!!!
Anybody got the FReeper lists fer AK and CO?!
FReegards...MUD
FReegards...MUD
Yep...that and the head-to-head confrontation of "Dubyuh versus the Leahy/Dasshole!!"
FReegards...MUD
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