Sun's rays to roast Earth as poles flip

The Observer (U.K.) ^ | 11/10/2002 | Robin McKie

[Pokey78]

Earth's magnetic field - the force that protects us from deadly radiation bursts from outer space - is weakening dramatically.

Scientists have discovered that its strength has dropped precipitously over the past two centuries and could disappear over the next 1,000 years.

The effects could be catastrophic. Powerful radiation bursts, which normally never touch the atmosphere, would heat up its upper layers, triggering climatic disruption. Navigation and communication satellites, Earth's eyes and ears, would be destroyed and migrating animals left unable to navigate.

'Earth's magnetic field has disappeared many times before - as a prelude to our magnetic poles flipping over, when north becomes south and vice versa,' said Dr Alan Thomson of the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh.

'Reversals happen every 250,000 years or so, and as there has not been one for almost a million years, we are due one soon.'

For more than 100 years, scientists have noted the strength of Earth's magnetic field has been declining, but have disagreed about interpretations. Some said its drop was a precursor to reversal, others argued it merely indicated some temporary variation in field strength has been occurring.

But now Gauthier Hulot of the Paris Geophysical Institute has discovered Earth's magnetic field seems to be disappearing most alarmingly near the poles, a clear sign that a flip may soon take place.

Using satellite measurements of field variations over the past 20 years, Hulot plotted the currents of molten iron that generate Earth's magnetism deep underground and spotted huge whorls near the poles.

Hulot believes these vortices rotate in a direction that reinforces a reverse magnetic field, and as they grow and proliferate these eddies will weaken the dominant field: the first steps toward a new polarity, he says.

And as Scientific American reports this week, this interpretation has now been backed up by computer simulation studies.

How long a reversal might last is a matter of scientific controversy, however. Records of past events, embedded in iron minerals in ancient lava beds, show some can last for thousands of years - during which time the planet will have been exposed to batterings from solar radiation. On the other hand, other researchers say some flips may have lasted only a few weeks.

Exactly what will happen when Earth's magnetic field disappears prior to its re-emergence in a reversed orientation is also difficult to assess. Compasses would point to the wrong pole - a minor inconvenience. More importantly, low-orbiting satellites would be exposed to electromagnetic batterings, wrecking them.

In addition, many species of migrating animals and birds - from swallows to wildebeests - rely on innate abilities to track Earth's magnetic field. Their fates are impossible to gauge.

As to humans, our greatest risk would come from intense solar radiation bursts. Normally these are contained by the planet's magnetic field in space. However, if it disappears, particle storms will start to batter the atmosphere.

'These solar particles can have profound effects,' said Dr Paul Murdin, of the Institute of Astronomy, Cambridge. 'On Mars, when its magnetic field failed permanently billions of years ago, it led to its atmosphere being boiled off. On Earth, it will heat up the upper atmosphere and send ripples round the world with enormous, unpredictable effects on the climate.'

It is unlikely that humans could do much. Burrowing thousands of miles into solid rock to set things right would stretch the technological prowess of our descendants to bursting point, though such limitations do not worry film scriptwriters. Paramount's latest sci-fi thriller, The Core - directed by Englishman Jon Amiel, and starring Hilary Swank and Aaron Eckhart - depicts a world beset by just such a polar reversal, with radiation sweeping the planet.

The solution, according to the film, to be released next year, involves scientists drilling into Earth's mantle to set off a nuclear blast that will halt the reversal.

Given that temperatures at such depths rival those of the Sun's surface, such a task would seem impossible - except, of course, in Hollywood.

robin.mckie@observer.co.uk

[freedom9]

Mastadons, fossilized tropical fauna found in artic regions?

Hogwash too?

[Stefan Stackhouse]

There is an accurate map that was found detailing the actual land mass that is buried under the miles of ice on the north pole... There is no land mass under the North Pole, only water. The South Pole has a land mass under it. Is that what you meant?

Yeah, but after the LAST reversal, the North Pole was the South Pole, and the South Pole was the North Pole, and so there WAS land under the North Pole (which is now the South Pole), and water under the South Pole (which is now the North Pole). Doesn't that clarify things?

;-)

[Stefan Stackhouse]

OK, so does this mean that we'll have to flip all the maps on the wall by 180 degrees, so that Canada is at the bottom and Antarctica at the top? If so, has anyone considered the public health implications of everyone twisting their heads at such a peculiar angle all the time trying to read the upside down (which will now be downside up) maps?

[Overtaxed]

Scientists have discovered that its strength has dropped precipitously over the past two centuries and could disappear over the next 1,000 years.

At least the elves will get fried.

[lizma]

we're good until 2073, thanks to y2k

Me too minus y2k. I just do it because I like to buy food.

My will won't be directing money, it will be directing cases of corn.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Maybe we can practice some damage control by orbiting some huge device that will focus all the solar particles and radiation on the one place on the globe where they would do the least damage. We could call this: "The Cooking of Provincial France."

;-)

[joesnuffy]

Yeah but then where should I buy real estate so I can clean up...

[AFPhys]

What's worth pointing out is that the claimed timescales (250,000 years, etc.) are wildly out of whack with the empirical data (approx. an 8% decay in only 170 years). The reversals in the magnetic field are reversals in orientation and, as the linked article points out, are distinct from the overall decay in the field strength. Once the field dies down to nothing there is no reason to believe it will ever start back up again.

I have not (and will not) wade through all that has been posted here in detail. However, I will take the time to point out to you that the data reported is simply a weakening of the field. The reversal, if/when it comes, will be nearly instantaneous, and likely be from a much weaker (+) state to a very weak (-) state.

As far as "reason to believe it will start", the most credible reason to believe that is that we've had a pretty strong magnetic field on this planet for most of our history, apparently. The weakening/reversal/etc. is most likely due to the influence of several factors. Go out to your favorite stream, and watch the whirlpools start up, die down and restart. A priori, by your statement, there is no reason to believe they will restart... but fluid dynamics (which certainly plays a big role in the earth's magnetic field) is far more complex than your statement concedes.

[TLI]

fossilized tropical fauna found in artic regions?

fossilization takes HOW LONG?

We are not talking about climate changes, this is claiming the entire planet changed the way/position/time of it's rotation in a time span of one day... sat there and then magically resumed a normal rotation...

good luck on this one....

 

[joesnuffy]

I read this book... "How to prosper in the coming polar flip"
"upsidaisium mines"

[TLI]

No, just pull it up in Photoshop and either rotate the graphics or the text by 180 degrees..

[Lokibob]

Well, back then we were Arctic Explorers.

We at Camp Century regarded Thule AFB as downtown.

The whole thing was an "experiment in arctic living". As I said on the web page, 40 years ago it was a hoot, today, I'd be scared to death.

BTW, I mentioned "Razz" as my buddy on the ice cap. I found him on the web 2 years ago, and called him. We had got cought up about Camp Century..

[freedom9]

Just read the stuff and thought it might be interesting to some.
I'm not out to debate or prove anything.
Saw this too. It sort of goes along the same lines as the the topic. . .

Isaiah 24 1 Behold, the LORD maketh the earth empty, and maketh it waste, and turneth it upside down, and scattereth abroad the inhabitants thereof.

19 The earth is utterly broken down, the earth is clean dissolved, the earth is moved exceedingly.
20 The earth shall reel to and fro like a drunkard, and shall be removed like a cottage; and the transgression thereof shall be heavy upon it; and it shall fall, and not rise again.

[RadioAstronomer]

Hehehehehe! Better than scrambled! :-)

[Schatze]

Obviously, the internal combustion engine is at fault.

More fodder for another book by Al "The Sky Is Falling" Gore.

[TopQuark]

Yep, it's the economy, stupid.

[Dan Day]

Heh, anyone with a simple understanding of electricity and magnetism could debunk this garbage. Its amazing how often it crops up though.

Actually, periodic magnetic polarity reversals in Earth's history are extremely well established. If you're trying to say that "anyone" could "debunk" that notion, you're very mistaken.

However, it's less well known what happens *during* a reversal, so predictions about the Earth "roasting" are indeed mere speculation.

For some introduction to geomagnetic polarity reversals, see:

Oilfield Glossary: Geomagnetic polarity reversal

Oilfield Glossary: Geomagnetic polarity time scale

WHEN NORTH GOES SOUTH: Three-Dimensional Simulation of Geomagnetic Field Reversal

Geology 101 Physical Geology Fall 2002

Magnetic Reversals and Moving Continents

[Dan Day]

"Reversals happen every 250,000 years or so, and as there has not been one for almost a million years, we are due one soon."

Really,Reversals happen every 250K years but it has not happen in the last million. Boy that makes sense.

Read it again. The "or so" indicates that they mean "on average", not that it happens each 250k years like clockwork.

[Dan Day]

It's interesting to note that note only is the Earth's magnetic field weaking, it's moving, and has been for the decades it has been being observed.

Tracking the North Magnetic Pole

Not only does the position of the north magnetic pole shift over time, it "wobbles" on a daily basis, some days more than others. On a particularly active day, its position will wobble as much as 80 kilomters.

[occam's chainsaw]

Anyone care to take bets?

How long till the media blames President Bush and the Republicans for this?