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Crunch Time in Louisiana
Seamax News ^ | 12/6/2002 | John Rossiello

Posted on 12/06/2002 7:12:03 PM PST by Milltownmalbay

It’s crunch time! With the runoff just one day away, all the last minute advertising and campaigning can only help the candidates in their attempts to be elected or reelected. However careful analysis of the many polls reveals that Terrell’s win is in the bag.

According to Staten Island political analyst Dr. Kevin Collins, a new “private” poll leaked by Terrell has her in the lead by three. This is good for new for Terrell because this poll was taken before the Bush visit on Tuesday. “The Bush bounce,” could be anywhere from four to six points.

Another poll taken by the University of New Orleans had Landrieu up 44/43. However, there are factors which indicate that this is bad news for Landrieu. For example, this poll was conducted before the President’s visit.

Furthermore, this poll is based on a 30% black vote. Such turnout of black voters is theoretically possible, however in the 1992 election, when they had a chance to vote against a Klansman, blacks constituted only 26% of the vote.

What makes these pollsters think that they can get 30% this year, a year when the big story was the lack of black voter turnout?

Another problem for Landrieu is the high number of undecided voters, a number that always bodes ill for incumbents of either party. Large numbers of undecided voters and the Bush visit on Tuesday could spell disaster for Landrieu.

Also remember that Louisiana is the most Catholic state in the south (30%). This basically infers that an anti-abortion Catholic (Suzanne Terrell) has an edge. Perhaps this is why Senator Landrieu is misrepresenting her pro-abortion views.

The weather may also affect the result of this election. The weather could very well keep both blacks and whites home but for different reasons. Bad weather usually keeps the blacks home from the, but may also keep the whites home from the start of the hunting season so they can vote.

The Louisiana Senate seat is still up for grabs. No one is sure that Terrell has won the runoff yet, but with the recent information given in these polls, I think it is safe to say that GOP will be very happy Saturday night.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: landrieu; louisiana; senate; terrell

1 posted on 12/06/2002 7:12:03 PM PST by Milltownmalbay
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To: Milltownmalbay
It appears that the election is finally drawing nigh.
2 posted on 12/06/2002 7:13:17 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

This relieves none of you citizens of the state of Louisiana from calling your relatives and friends, getting them off their asses, and storming the polls for Suzie.

Go get 'em, folks!

Be Seeing You,

Chris

3 posted on 12/06/2002 7:20:56 PM PST by section9
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To: Milltownmalbay
weather.com forecast for New Orleans tomorrow is mostly sunny, high 56.

weather.com forecast for Shreveport is partly cloudy, high of 58.

Good weather for the hunters, I suppose.
4 posted on 12/06/2002 7:22:14 PM PST by Mike Fieschko
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To: Milltownmalbay
One thing that has been conspicuously absent during this race (here in New Orleans, at least) is supporters waiving signs at busy intersections in the weeks leading up to the election. This evening, when I drove home along several busy streets after some shopping, I saw one lone campaigner with a homemade sign that read:

MARY LANDRIEU
Abortion - In
Boy Scouts - Out

After reading his sign, I wondered which candidate this young man favored. I thought it could be taken as either support or opposition, depending on your political inclinations. I think he just wanted to make it clear to people where Mary really stands on these issues and suspect he's a scout or scouter.

5 posted on 12/06/2002 7:32:43 PM PST by Mudbug
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To: Mudbug
VOTE, VOTE & GET OTHERS TO VOTE!!!

THERE'S NO ROOM FOR COMPLACENCY!!!

TAKE THE DAY OFF WORK IF YOU HAVE TO ... VOTE & GET OTHERS TO VOTE!!!

And finally, IGNORE WHATEVER THE MEDIA SAYS!!!

If they say your candidate is so far behind in the exit polls that he can't possibly catch up, IGNORE THEM AND GO VOTE!! If they say your candidate is so far ahead in the exit polls that the Rat can't possibly catch up, IGNORE THEM AND GO VOTE!! GO VOTE AND GET EVERYONE YOU KNOW TO GO VOTE AND VOTE TERRELL!!

No matter what ... GO VOTE AND GET OTHERS TO VOTE!! Even if Terrell is projected to win by 50% margin, get out the vote anyway and try to make it a 100%.

Remember, you don't just drive a stake through the vampire's heart, you also cut off its head, throw both head and body into a tub of Holy Water, mix in some garlic, and burn what's left in sunlight. You simply CANNOT be too careful.

GO TERRELL!!!
6 posted on 12/06/2002 7:56:11 PM PST by MAKnight
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To: Mudbug
Pretty straight forward message, though.

TC

7 posted on 12/06/2002 8:00:52 PM PST by I_be_tc
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To: I_be_tc
Yes, but I think the lack of signage shows that the local political machine (Dem, there isn't much of a Republican base here) isn't motivated.
8 posted on 12/06/2002 8:05:06 PM PST by Mudbug
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To: Mudbug
Very nice. I understand that there is least a bunch (350) of out of state Democrats working to GOTV. But there are many Repbulicans "visiting" as well, including our boy-faced pit bull friend, Ralph Reed, fresh from his Georgia victory.

And I bet you're right - the right is motivated and the left may be just a little deflated in spots.

Don't take anything for granted, Terrell needs all those votes! This could be one of those statewide races with less than a 1,000 difference!

Go get 'em Mudbug! Making calls? Anyone calling you?

For whom it might yet help at this hour:
http://www.unspun.info/senate.html
9 posted on 12/06/2002 8:44:32 PM PST by unspun
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To: unspun
Most of my neighbors are staunch democrats, so I don't want to encourage them to vote. But I have pestered any friends, family (well, not Dad) and co-workers, (and browbeat my son and his buds to vote absentee while they were home for Thanksgiving) who I think might help.

I live in dem country, so I view the absence as signage as a good thing.
10 posted on 12/06/2002 8:55:17 PM PST by Mudbug
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To: Mudbug
Cool.

If you're interested, you could phone up the GOP tomorrow morning and find out whare they're calling from. They may still need callers, or poll watchers in the evening.

What kind of voting technology is Lou' using?

11 posted on 12/06/2002 9:09:51 PM PST by unspun
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To: unspun
I asked about volunteering when I called to make my donation and was referred to the BR office. When I tried to get something going with my son's scout troop with FReeper omegatoo's help, it didn't pan out because (1) the troop didn't have a meeting last week and (2) the scoutmaster didn't want the troop to endorse a campaign.

I don't know the brand name of the voting machine we use here, but it's the one where you have to depress a button next to the the candidate's name and a after the green LED arrow lights up you press another at the bottom to cast your vote. We've been using these for several years, but it seems like the last time Landrieu ran we had the old ones with the levers.

12 posted on 12/06/2002 9:21:11 PM PST by Mudbug
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To: Milltownmalbay
What is the Landrieu's position on reparations?
13 posted on 12/06/2002 10:49:44 PM PST by 185JHP
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