Posted on 01/09/2003 8:59:42 PM PST by maui_hawaii
A recent article found here made the wheels turn in my head.
I have not spent the time to research this specific theory, hence I am writing off the cuff.
What are China’s long term strategic goals? What do they fear? What is the nature of Chinese leadership? Who runs China and how? Why do they do what they do in regards to North Korea?
Historically China has been run by a faction of one sort of another. Those factions had/have their fundamental ways of thinking that brought them to power. In China’s case, it was the lure of Communism, as well as anti-West and anti-Japanese thinking. Now they are trying to hang on to power. When I speak here I want to emphasize the utter importance of thinking. It is the core, fundamental foundation of thinking that brought them to power. That foundation of thinking is being challenged namely by US influence of creating open societies with free presses, etc. China is antagonized by the US because we do things differently that they see as threatening to their power.
Thinking is why the Chinese police the internet. That is why they squash dissent. There is a core fundamental theory that must remain intact for the CCP to remain in power. And, absolutely NO, it is not hardcore communism. Really it is not. It has nothing to do with Communism as we know it. Even despite all of the changes in China, their core beliefs are largely unchanged. Communist economics is only a small, increasingly insignificant side issue. They can run and economy, and stay in power. They will merely own the businesses. They will just be rich rulers instead of just rulers.
China had to reinvent itself. And it has, or is in the process. But its core fundamental beliefs have not changed, despite its economic changes. The nature of the regime has not changed.
China sees Asia as being led around in American thinking. That is why they demonize America so much despite the fact that America historically participated very little in China's past problems (opium wars etc). The differing "faction" is why this is not a problem with Taiwan, but it is with China. It is differing party beliefs just like party differences between liberals and conservatives.
Particularly this 'being led by Americanism' is the case with Japan, as well as Taiwan. South Korea is also on their list. They see this American thinking as a whole new set of philosophies and hence it challenges their grip on power. It is a threat to their very regime. It is not economics. It is something else. It is no different really than liberal democrat ideas being shoveled out the door at the hands of a republican win. Can you imagine the emotion of hardcore democrats? That’s the feel, only more angry and demonizing not toward a party, but toward America. There is a struggle for the minds of the people of China. That is what it boils down to.
China’s history with North Korea goes back a long time. North Korea is an old friend. The difference is, China’s ruling faction has evolved in order to maintain its grip on power. North Korea is China 25-30 years back.
With North Korea China sees longer term prospects for breaking the American “stranglehold” in Asia. They want N. Korea to open as China has opened, but maintain its party control. They want them to maintain their ideological basis.
In the process of that, N. Korea opening will project, over the long term, “soft power” in China’s behalf. (soft power= ideological beliefs). China and N. Korea are not ideological cousins, more like siamese twins. You can see the action in that there is pressure to ‘turn’ South Korea. I would not be a bit surprised if the Korean ‘sunshine policy’ was founded in Beijing.
The survival of the N. Korea regime is key to China’s long term strategy. Otherwise China will be even more isolated in the world. China does not want N. Korea to rock the boat because they know it will not survive. If it does not survive, China’s struggles to ideologically insulate itself from foreign thought will be frustrated. This is why China is willing to say things like ‘nuclear free Koreas’. They know this boat rocking will elicit a response and adds to the barriers for projecting ‘soft power’ (aka non American, even anti American thought) in Asia. North Korea’s brinkmanship is a threat to China’s plan.
China was showing the leaders of North Korea around trying to impress them with economic opening. They were doing so because it is in China’s interests to do so. For the regime in China to itself not crumble it must project soft power and insulate itself from “American” thinking. (“American” does not mean American, although that is how it is labeled.)
China though expresses its own set of frustrations at North Korea for its brinkmanship. It also expresses frustration over North Korea’s doggedly not adapting and accepting reforms.
Anyway, I have a lot of thoughts on this. It would take all night to compose them all. I hope you can gain the gist of what I have tried to portray. In short, it is all statesmanship. It is Chinese statecraft
I think China wants a unified Korea... ruled under their brand of thinking or at the very least, not so gung ho pro American.
Always remember--the PRC is not an ally, not a friend. They are our chief rival in the world.
Exactly, and exactly the point of my essay.
I would be inclinded to disagree.
China wants to win the war, not just one battle...against America. There is no guarantee they could even win the battle even.
They are biding their time.
No, see, they want NK for arms length plausible denial when they want to do something that cannot be defended in public, without taking the heat for it or compromising relations (especially trade) with the west. If they want to send missile or nuclear tech to somebody, they just give a nod and pass it through NK. If they want to kidnap people or blow up airliners, the NKs do it, the Chinese say they are against it but do nothing to rein in NK.
If they want to lob missile over Japan, or hold people up for monetary tribute, they let their proxy do it. If they ever want to fire a nuke at the US, or smuggle one here, or sell one to Islamic terrorists, they won't do it direct and risk a return address of "Peking" - they will let NK do it, providing whatever tech, support, money, diplomatic cover etc is actually required.
NK is simply a criminal front organization for China's illegitimate state interests. It works perfectly, too. They are sending NK technical materials right now to allow NK to extract plutonium from reactor fuel, thus directly furthering nuke proliferation. But nobody calls them on it, because they say one thing and do another. NK might get blamed - allow appeasement runs rampant even there - but nobody would dream of consequences for China for the present nuke flap. Why, they are so indispensable, after all. Can't possibly afford to upset them.
It is the simplest sort of indirection and dodge. The amazing thing is simply that there are people gullible enough to fall for it. Or bought enough. Or who prefer a Chicom win in the long run.
Deniable sock puppet bump.
August 1998 NK threw a Taepodong over Japan--oops.
The 94 shuck and jive kept alive by Madeliene the Hutt.
Now comes the NK ambassador to try an end run around Richardson.
The local radio host said Richardson would take ambass to topless club; cohost said ambass brought golf clubs, would defect.
NK remains an accessory to China's four goals:
1) US out of Asia;
2) Absorption of SoKo;
3) Absorption of Taiwan;
4) Neutralized Japan.
Hu and Jiang have not "mellowed"; Communism is not being replaced by Capitalism.
China's fanatic nationalism is akin to the mental illness of Hitlerism.
Kim is coo-coo and Jiang's organ-grinder monkey--
While entertaining Uday Hussein, in on a salesman's road trip to cut a deal.
The 1984 mind control efforts of the ChiComs make it clear--they don't want no stinkin' democracy anywhere in the world.
This is sort of true, but its more than that. What happens if the rest of Asia turns on N. Korea? Or N. Korea falls? China is thinking much longer terms.
They do want to do what you are talking about in the above sentence, but do it politically also. Not just militarily or otherwise.
War cannot be sustained forever, but political balance is what they want.
China may be "egging" on the NK's but I doubt it goes any further than that.
Deniable sock puppet bump.
Politically they don't want it ultimately to be 'deniable'. They want it to be real undeniable opposition to US influence.
NK remains an accessory to China's four goals:
1) US out of Asia; 2) Absorption of SoKo; 3) Absorption of Taiwan; 4) Neutralized Japan.
Not all that different from what I am talking about. In fact, right on the money. That doessum it all up.
They are not seeking to do so via straight forward military confrontation though. That is the difference.
Yeah, it is true. There are some conflicts here and there.
China though wants to use N. Korea to their advantage, but N. Korea is not playing along as China would like.
1. Russia's relationship with N. Korea remain close, even with the Soviets out of power.
2. More importantly, S. Korea is China's number 3 trading partner. Whatever their strategy is, they need to safeguard their relationship with the South.
My personal theory: The CCP knows that its hold on power is based on maintaining the economy. An unstable Korea hurts China's economy. They know that if the North does anything wild, they can kiss a major engine for economic growth good-bye.
The CCP's worst case scenario: the North violently imploding, taking out much of the South, and thousands of refugees streaming over the border.
Their best case scenario: Unified Korea, under an anti-American gov't. The way things are going in the South, that'll probably happen once Kim dies, or sooner. With a unified Korea the need for American troops there goes away. China would like to see that.
Personally, I think much of what happens in East Asia revolves around two factors:
1. What happens politcally in Taiwan. Will they roll over and accept unification, or eventually declare independance?
2. Japan increasing its stance as a military power.
China is actually in a bad position in both regards. Much of their strategy in the future will be re-active, rather than pro-active, in my opinion.
2. More importantly, S. Korea is China's number 3 trading partner. Whatever their strategy is, they need to safeguard their relationship with the South.
From my rant: You can see the action in that there is pressure to ‘turn’ South Korea.
Trade is just one more way to do so.
My personal theory: The CCP knows that its hold on power is based on maintaining the economy. An unstable Korea hurts China's economy. They know that if the North does anything wild, they can kiss a major engine for economic growth good-bye.
YES! Exactly.
Your post is very good and not all that off from what I am trying to say.
Especially like your worst and best case scenarios.
The Russia and Japan card have not been factored in. I was writing about the Chinese position...
China also knows N. Korea cannot have a good economy without US assistance.
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