Democratic opportunity in Alaska?

The Hill ^ | 2/19/03 | Allison Stevens

[LdSentinal]

Alaska Republicans have long mined into the state's deep reservoir of conservatism, enabling them to turn congressional elections into political riches for decades. But this year, it's Democrats who see electoral gold in them thar hills.

Prospecting for opportunity in a fairly barren political landscape, Democrats are laying claim to the seat held by former Sen. Frank Murkowski (R), who, after winning last year's gubernatorial contest, appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, as his successor. Murkowski will serve out a two-year term before facing her first election for a full term in 2004.

Democrats are banking on a backlash against the popular Murkowski family in the wake of the December appointment, a lingering controversy that could make Alaska the site of a contested congressional election for the first time in decades.

Her appointment prompted cries of nepotism within the Republican camp, amid charges that the newly elected governor had conducted a sham exploratory process when, in fact, he had his mind set on his daughter all along. Moreover, some Republicans condemned Murkowski for overlooking more experienced and more conservative candidates and instead appointing a centrist figure who favors some abortion rights.

As a result of the internal discontent, Lisa Murkowski could face a primary challenge from one or more of the Republican candidates who were passed over for the Senate appointment. Among the most frequently mentioned challengers are Johne Binkley, chairman of the Alaska Railroad Board Corp.; Sarah Palin, formerly a candidate for lieutenant governor; Jerry Hood, head of the Alaska Teamsters, and Drue Pearce, special assistant to Interior Department Secretary Gale Norton.

If Murkowski survives the primary, she could also face a formidable Democratic rival in former Gov. Tony Knowles, who is seriously considering making the race but has as yet not publicly declared his intentions. Former Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer, who ran a surprisingly strong gubernatorial campaign last year, is also eyeing the race but will likely defer to Knowles, insiders say.

If Knowles does run, he will almost certainly have the backing of the entire Democratic establishment. Such a clear field would enable him to raise money, revive his campaign team and mobilize grassroots support free from the threat of intra-party competition.

These factors have Democrats crowing that Murkowski is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the Senate and that her race could help them retake majority control of the upper chamber.

Of the 14 Republican senators up for reelection next year, Murkowski ranks second on a list of endangered incumbents compiled by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

Ahead of her is Sen. Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois, who is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent in either chamber. He won his first term with only 51 percent of the vote and faces reelection in the Democratic-trending state of Illinois. Behind her are a dozen Republican senators who at this point are not considered to be in serious danger of losing their seats.

"We do consider Sen. Murkowski a target just on the fact of how she was appointed to the Senate,"DSCC spokeswoman Kimberlin Wood said. She noted that appointed senators frequently lose their first elections, as was the case with former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.), who was named to fill the seat of her late husband Mel Carnahan, but lost her first race for a full term last year.

"And the fact that her record in Alaska represents an ideological split between her and the GOP is also a problem," Wood said. "She's looked at as being more of a moderate and someone who is willing to fight the GOP and push them on issues, whereas her father was a conservative."

Independent observers agree that 2004 could be a good year for Democrats in the Land of the Midnight Sun.

"I think for the Democratic Party there is an opportunity," said Jerry McBeath, a professor of political science at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. "This will be a race watched very closely."

McBeath noted that if Murkowski wins, she will face the difficult challenge of garnering conservative support among GOP primary voters but will then have only three months to tack left in a general election against the Democratic nominee. The Alaska GOP, he added, has pitted conservatives against centrists in recent years, enabling centrist Democrats like Knowles to take advantage of that ideological divide.

"It's a very interesting and challenging situation for Lisa Murkowski" McBeath said. "She'll be dealing with the divisions in the statewide Republican Party under the cloud of being nominated by her dad. I think it's possible for her to do it, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion."

Republicans, however, dismiss the Democrats' claims as so much empty rhetoric. "The Democrats are going to grasp for straws throughout this election cycle," said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "One straw they're trying to grasp is in Alaska, but it doesn't mean it's [legitimate]."

Because Democrats have few opportunities to knock off GOP incumbents in states dominated by Democrats, they are moving into Republican territory, Allen said, a strategy that has not worked in Alaska for decades.

Indeed, Alaskans have sent the same three Republicans to Congress for more than 20 years. They backed President Bush by a whopping 59 percent of the vote in the 2000 presidential elections. And in 2002, the state GOP won virtually every statewide office and maintained control of both chambers of the state Legislature.

Allen also said he is confident that Republicans from across the political spectrum will eventually rally around Murkowski after she develops a record and demonstrates that she can work with Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young.

"At end of day, Lisa is going to be the U.S. Senator and people are going to be supporting her," said Murkowski political consultant Art Hackney. And that includes Bush, who endorsed Murkowski during a meeting last week at the White House with strategist Ken Mehlman, Hackney said.

Hackney has also held conversations with several of Murkowski's potential primary opponents and is confident they will not challenge her.

They're all saying now that she has the potential to be a great U.S. senator and that they will do everything [they] possibly can to help her because that's in the best interest of Alaska," he said. "I don't see any single person who has the capability of beating her who is going to be stepping in."

Even some longtime Democrats concede that Murkowski, by virtue of her name, her father's position, and her incumbency, will make it difficult for Democrats to finally send a member of their party to Washington.

"I think she would walk away with it," said former Sen. Mike Gravel (D) who said that Murkowski will rise above the charges of nepotism because she had several years of experience under her belt at the time of her appointment. "Knowles has never won big, he said, though he is the only Democrat on the scene that would have a shot."

[LdSentinal]

Ping

[gop_gene]

I don't know anything about politics in AK, but I guess Knowles is for drilling in ANWR as well as being a conservative dem, otherwise it'd be hard for him to stand much of a chance, let along having got elected as governor. We'd better keep a close eye on this one, despite the fact that it''ll be in a general election year and Bush being on the top of the ticket should provide some coattails.

[Rocketman]

Knowles conservative democrat my ass -- the lib is retired. Frank Murkowski is now Governor and pushing hard for drilling in ANWAR Knowles efforts was all fluff trying to look good to Alaskans why giving in at every turn to clinton.

The only gold the sems see in them Alaskan hills is FOOLS GOLD -- The writer is clearly delussional

[fieldmarshaldj]

Knowles, as with practically every Democrat candidate for Governor, in the last 20 years won by both sheer luck and by the GOP slicing themselves to pieces. Knowles is quite the liberal, and won an improbably victory in the '94 election because the expected winner, Republican Jim Campbell, made some unsubstantiated claims that Knowles was a philanderer, and also wasn't helped by a 3rd party bid by the Conservative Alaskan Independence Party Lieutenant-Governor. He should've been taken down easily in '98 after a subpar first term, but the GOP ended up being saddled with an ethically-challenged nominee and then was forced to disavow him and run a write-in candidate as a result, and Knowles won a narrow majority outright. Now, how that plays into his chances for winning in '04 can be looked at like this, how Ms. Murkowski performs and how the GOP reacts to her. Knowles is counting on a split, which is the only way he can really win. Count me as one of those who was steaming mad that the Governor appointed his kid to his seat, something that isn't well regarded practically anywhere, which would obviously dramatically increase Knowles's ability to win, nevermind the fact that Ms. Murkowski did have some legislative experience. Mayor Sarah Palin was my choice, and would've made a fantastic Senator after narrowly losing the nomination for Lieutenant-Governor. I can't comment on Sen. Murkowski's performance to date, since I've heard next to nothing about it (perhaps a good thing, since that means she hasn't screwed up, though sometimes a bad thing, since it also means she isn't delivering the goods and cutting a strong profile). She is having to serve in the shadow of three legendary figures, that being Ted Stevens, who is now the Senate President Pro Tempore, Congressman Don Young, and her father, and that can't be easy for anyone to do. We'll know by this time next year whether she can play ball with the big boys, or if she's not yet ready for prime time. In the end, it's hers to lose.

[Kuksool]

It looks like Bush may have to make more 2004 campaign trips to AK than expected. If an intra-party conflict brews up in AK, then this seat is doomed for the GOP. It would very unfortunate considering that AK is a rock solid GOP state.

Intra-party conflicts have cost the GOP governorships in AZ, KS, OR, and TN last year. Also, US House seats (LA-05, KS-03, and UT-02) were lost due to internal squabbles. The only way for the 'RATS to win in GOP-friendly regions is to incite intra-party battles in the GOP. Given some of the posts here in Free Republic that is not hard to do.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Intra-party conflicts have cost the GOP governorships in AZ, KS, OR, and TN last year."

We lost AZ because Salmon strangely refused to aggressively campaign below Maricopa County; KS because the RINO Governor didn't like the nominee; OR because the Libertarians funnelled away votes; and here in TN for the same reason as KS, but with the added bonus that the 'Rat broke state law (that the 'Rat hack AG refused to enforce) in loaning his own campaign money and outspending Van Hilleary by a whopping margin. These were not entirely what I would describe as intraparty squabbles, there were some weaknesses on the part of the candidates themselves.

"Also, US House seats (LA-05, KS-03, and UT-02) were lost due to internal squabbles."

In the case of LA-5, quite true (that, and massive pro-Landrieu turnout). KS-3, they've run a moderate-liberal ('02) and Conservatives ('98 & '00), and it's never quite enough (the "critics" of Conservatives got their man last November, and he still couldn't do it). UT-2 was slightly different in my opinion, I don't think we actively did anything to recapture that seat (other than for redrawing the lines), but we dropped the ball in not fully funding Matheson's opponent.

"The only way for the 'RATS to win in GOP-friendly regions is to incite intra-party battles in the GOP. Given some of the posts here in Free Republic that is not hard to do."

Sometimes true, though we've managed to come together after tough primaries, but sometimes things are too bitter to reunite. Of course, we could (should !) also try and incite these types of battles in marginal seats against the 'Rats, too ! :-)

[KQQL]

It all depends on how she votes....in the senate/////

[KQQL]

!

[ambrose]

I think the sham interview process may have hurt more than anything else. Imagine being put in the shoes of the people going through background checks, taking time out for interviews... when he knew who he was picking all along...

[fieldmarshaldj]

I agree with that. I'd at least like to think Frank was serious about those other candidates, but who knows...

[knak]

Lisa better do a great job or I see Sarah replacing her easy!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I guess Knowles is for drilling in ANWR"

---

He is, but there's no way that Lisa Murkowski or whoever gets the GOP nomination should let him get away with declaring the election a choice between two ANWR supporters. Murkowski should say time and time again that the D next to Knowles's name is a vote for Tom Daschle as majority leader of the Senate, and that if the Democrats get a majority in the Senate there is no way the Senate will ever approve drilling in ANWR (Daschle will make sure they never have a vote).

[spanky007]

I really dont care how she (Lisa) votes in the senate. her record in Anchorage speaks for its self, BAD. What was her margin of victory over Dhalstrom??? 20 votes?? Something meger like that. She has NO chance against Knowles, and Alaska CAN NOT afford his representation!

I say we Alaskans get on Sarah's bandwagon and get to work plugging her for the seat. She did one hell of a job in the valley and her political views are very respectable. Besides I'm pretty sure she would not request a "vanity trail" after her service was complete.

Furthermore, I think Sarah can carry the native and women's vote. this may very well be the "swing vote" need to defeat that serpant Knowles. On the other hand, Lisa couldn't even carry my luggage.

[Brad C.]

At this point, I am willing to do everything I can to make sure that Lisa is not the repub candidate. The only way she will get support from me is if it boils down to a demo or her.

Frank did Alaska no favors when he appointed his daughter, and he never even should have considered her. Likewise, she should have asked that her name be removed from consideration. Tony K. has every chance of winning the race because of what Frank did, and that will be the saddest day Alaska has ever seen.

[spanky007]

IBID

We'ed be screwed if the former Defunct Gov took office again. As if it was not bad enough with the coastal trail. Imagine if he was Senator, we would have to build a trail to heaven and beyond. What a Donkey's butt! What really sickens me is the fact that he will elicit the help of Frannie, God I really want to hear her shrill voice again. I still have nightmares of the campaign commercial of her saying Bill Clinton, arughhhhhhhhh!!!!!!! OHHHHHHH, excuse while I go PUKE!

[Brad C.]

Just think how much fun the demos are going to have with the words nepotism, dynasty, political favors, and making your vote count. It is going to be an ugly campaign. I just hope Sarah rises to the occasion and runs on issues, while the mud flies between Lisa and Tony.

[spanky007]

I'm sure she will, or at least I hope she does run and rise above. I just cant think of a better candidate then her. The way she handeled herself in the Lt. Gov. race was incrediable. I just hope she does not let her appointment get in the way. IE Frank bought her off. He knows he screwed up, but who can blame a father for giving his daughter a great x-mas present. well, I guess me, but I'm working on forgiveness, after all he did basically open up preadator control. All I know is that we republicans better get started, Knowles is pretty good at lying, and we need to expose that. Rick Rydell is a good voice but we need to start some form of "grass roots" campaign. Of course Sarah will not participate untill the filling deadline, but she would proably say go get'em under her breath.

[JohnnyZ]

Sounds good to me, Sarah Palin makes a lot more sense as senator from Alaska than does Lisa Murkowski, although the latter has a year + to show she can be decent.

[akdonn]

I think Lisa will do just fine; she was a good representative here in Juneau and she is going to get lots of help from Uncle Ted and AK Congressman Don Young. I respect Sarah, and know a lot of people in the Railbelt think Alaska rotates around Anchorage, but I'd hate to see another specticle like we had in the late 1960's with Mike Gravel as U.S. Senator-- and candidate for vice-president...