Segway's Breakdown

Wired Magazine ^ | March 2003 | Gary Rivlin

[SamAdams76]

Inventor Dean Kamen promised that his superscooter would change the world. Then reality hit - hard.

It would be premature to call the most talked about scooter in the history of humankind a huge bust. But the Segway has always been ahead of its time. For a decade, Dean Kamen fiddled and tested and tinkered with his invention, finally stage-managing its public unveiling in December 2001. He figured 2002 would be the year that the Segway Human Transporter launched a transportation revolution. Executives at companies like FedEx and Amazon.com would behold his high tech superscooter and wonder how they'd managed all these years without it. The US Postal Service and police departments across the nation would overwhelm the company with orders. And behind Segway's institutional customers, Kamen envisioned a long line of consumers from around the globe, checkbooks in hand. Maybe not all 6 billion of us would clamor at once to own one, but to him that seemed only a matter of time. After all, he was hawking the Segway as not merely a faster way to get from here to there but also a solution to urban congestion, air pollution, and dependency on fossil fuel. To prepare for the onslaught, Kamen leased a 77,000-square-foot factory near his home in Manchester, New Hampshire,and began puzzling through the logistics of running round-the-clock shifts. He hired scores of lobbyists, who spent much of last year trying to persuade state legislatures to rewrite their laws to permit his scooter to operate on city sidewalks. Before he'd sold a single one, Kamen blithely forecast that by the end of 2002, his enterprise would be stamping out 10,000 machines a week. Meanwhile, his best-known backer, venture capitalist John Doerr, predicted Segway would rack up $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history.

[SamAdams76]

I feel bad for Dean Kamen. He's one of the good guys and a brilliant inventor. But there are some serious obstacles that must be overcome before such a device becomes popular. One of which is the weather. We are in the middle of a brutal winter here in New England. If anybody around here had a Segway, it would have been in the garage since November. This device needs to provide some protection from the elements. At the same time, it need to be lighter, run longer on a battery charge and cost a lot less. These are pretty stiff obstacles to overcome anytime soon. In the meantime, it looks doomed to be just a Yuppie toy.

That said, I think the biggest PR blunder Dean Kamen made was with those bicycle helmets that everybody was wearing in all those publicity photos. This gave the Segway a "dork factor" that is going to be hard to overcome. Besides, if the device is so safe, what do you need a crash helmet for?

What Kamen should have done to promote the product was to sell a bunch of them to amusement/theme parks to be rented out for the day. People would have lined up to rent them - how many people come home from amusement/theme parks early because they are dog-tired after walking several miles in the hot sun? This also would have exposed the product to the millions of people a year that go to amusement/theme parks.

Anyway, I sincerely wish Dean Kamen luck with future models and hope that this concept becomes a success someday.

[TexRef]

Segway hits bump in its progress

	Andy Kjellgren / Special A member of the Ambassador Force is treated for his injuries after an accident on his Segway Thursday night.

The heralded Segway has claimed its first Atlanta victim. A member of the Central Atlanta Progress Ambassador Force toppled from one of the personal scooters on Cone Street near Luckie Street about 8:40 p.m. Thursday.

The officer, whose name was not released, injured his knee going up a driveway onto the sidewalk, said Atlanta Police Sgt. Michael Giugliano. He was taken to Grady Hospital.

Atlanta is one of the first cities to buy into the concept of using the Segway scooters, manufactured out of Manchester, N.H., for use by city employees.

Six of the 65-pound Segway scooters were lent to the Atlanta police for 60 days in late April by the company that are promoting them. Ten more of the machines were purchased for $9,000 each by the city's Ambassador Force, Central Atlanta Progress and Georgia Power, according to Atlanta Regional Commission spokeswoman Julie Ralston.

[SamAdams76]

Ouch!

[Jay D. Dyson]

I feel bad for Dean Kamen.

I feel bad for the inventor, but I don't feel bad about the demise of the product. The Segway was nothing but the 21st century's version of the Moped.

Sure, it may have been fun to ride, but you wouldn't want your friends to see you on one...

-Jay

[DoughtyOne]

I have been in a few situations where I wished I could rent one of them. I like the idea, but thought the $4500 price was economic suicide. Hardly anyone will purchase them at that price. From the looks of the thing and the general overall elements that has been revealed to the public, it seems like the units could be manufactured for a lot less than what would demand the $4500 price. It looks right now like this is doomed.

[Sacajaweau]

I don't think he thought out his target well enough. Most of us put a thumbs down on this as not being "practical" for mass marketing.

Too slow, too heavy, too "short" on range.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

What Kamen should have done to promote the product was to sell a bunch of them to amusement/theme parks to be rented out for the day.

I don't know that this would work. You would need something like a parking lot outside of every ride to leave it as taking it with you would not be an option.

I don't think the parks would want to do a major redesign for something of unproven economic value.

[SamAdams76]

I'm sure they can be manufactured cheaper too but first you need to achieve some economy of scale. The "10 a week" currently being produced, according to the article, isn't going to cut it.

[altayann]

One of the biggest problems Kamen has to face is the fact
that there's already a people transporter out there. Not only that, it costs about 1/6 to 1/5 the price of a Segway, and doesn't need to be recharged.

It's called a bicycle.

I also have some admiration for what Kamen has done. The only problem is, there's just not much need for the Segway.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Amusement parks, trade shows, malls. Rentals. The fattening American culture should embrace the chance not to have to expend energy while wandering around.

Like luggage carts at airports. Imagine rolling to your gate to make the flight.

[SamAdams76]

I was slightly amused to see the Segway scooter up for sale on Amazon.com.

Amazon.com states "Only two per customer during this special launch offer" - as if people are banging the doors down to get one. What's more, if you do order one (after paying a $495 deposit), you might not even get it until July 31st.

[DoughtyOne]

You're right, but I do wonder how much more successful he would have been if he had began selling the Segways to business concerns at about $3000 and to the public for about $2000. As I understand it, his initial price to businesses was in excess of $4500, because he sold it as an industrial model. That might have been a big mistake.

I do believe there is a market for this device that is being overlooked. There are millions of Americans who use wheel chairs to get around, not because they can't stand, but because wheelchairs are the only alternative to walking for distance.

I have difficulty walking long distances. I stick it out, but it would be a big help for me to have one of these devices. Right now people are paying thousands for exotic wheel-chairs. Many of them could use a Segway. I think Kayman priced himself out of their range.

This technology facinates me. I'm hoping he can make a go of it, because it is an interesting device, which may suffer from having been marketed incorrectly, more than anything else.

[XEHRpa]

Segway seems to suffer the same problem as many "green" (and I mean environmental, not new) technologies. And that is that battery technology kills you just about every time. The weight necessary to store significant energy bloats the size of your device (and dragging around heavy batteries adds insult to injury). The cost of battery storage is high. The intricacies of how the optimal charge/drain cycle of a rechargeable battery are not typically well aligned with the intended usage profile makes for premature battery failure... the list goes on. I don't know how many Black & Decker Dustbusters my wife has ridden to the ground in the last 5 years.

The Army wants to make an electric tank, so that it can shoot an electric gun and be defended by electric armor, etc. It's all a paper study, since the battery weight/volume necessary to do it right (with today's technology) would make the vehicle more akin to a pillbox on the Maginot Line.

[Camber-G]

... Sure, it may have been fun to ride, but you wouldn't want your friends to see you on one ...

Hey, I know that joke too, LOL.

[Oztrich Boy]

there's one on ebay now current bid $9.99

[Dog Gone]

Ten more of the machines were purchased for $9,000 each by the city's Ambassador Force, Central Atlanta Progress and Georgia Power, according to Atlanta Regional Commission spokeswoman Julie Ralston.

So, why did they pay twice the asking price?

This invention is innovative. It's also totally stupid.

There are a very few instances where they would be handy, and none where they are indispensable.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[TJFLSTRAT]

For $4,500 I can go out and buy a used 2001 Kia rio, or Hyndai Accent, with A/C, and CD player and everything.

[yooper]

Oh my, where do I start?

"IT is **IT.

Look, this is America, not Europe. Personal transport devices here in America, on the whole, don't cut the distances involved. Just ask AMTRAK.

I can't believe any savvy American capitalist would have given a second look to this gizmo, let alone buy stock in it. And I admire the fact that Kamen may indeed by a brilliant inventor, but I would point people who idolize Kamen to the historical division of the patent office. Many people like Kamen have registered similar products and gone on to obscurity, as will this invention...

[jalisco555]

Bump for later reading.