War Could Last Months, Some Military Officers Say (Wash Post gloom)

Washington Post ^ | March 26, 2003 | Thomas E. Ricks

[Dog Gone]

Despite the rapid advance of Army and Marine forces across Iraq over the past week, some senior U.S. military officers are now convinced that the war is likely to last months and will require considerably more combat power than is now on hand there and in Kuwait, senior defense officials said today.

The combination of wretched weather, long and insecure supply lines, and an enemy that has refused to be supine in the face of American combat power has led to a broad reassessment by some top generals of U.S. military expectations and timelines. Some of them see even the potential threat of a drawn-out fight that sucks in more and more U.S. forces. Both on the battlefield in Iraq and in Pentagon conference rooms, military commanders were talking today about a longer, harder war than had been expected just a week ago, the officials said.

"Tell me how this ends," one senior officer said today.

While some top planners favor continuing to press north, most Army commanders believe that the pause in Army ground operations that began today is critical. A relatively small force is stretched thin over 300 miles, and much of the Army's killing power, in more than 100 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, has been grounded by persistently foul weather or by battle damage from an unsuccessful pre-dawn raid on Monday. To the east, the Marine Corps advance on the city of Kut was also hampered by skirmishing along its supply line and fuel shortages at the front.

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[denydenydeny]

Ricks was just on with Tom Brokaw, who could barely conceal his delight at Ricks's pessimism.

This crap is exactly the same thing that the WP (and NBC for that matter) was saying about Afghanistan.

[Mister Magoo]

This is ludicrous. The Iraqis have nowhere to run. They have no strategic reserve. They have no air power. Even if we simply sit still, we can pound them from the air day after day, night after night, until they go insane. Months? Please. These are the same morons who thought Afghanistan would take years.

[John H K]

Yep, this officially is the New York Times Afghanistan "quagmire" article.

[GEC]

I'm guessing you saw the highlights on Dateline, or whatever NBC is calling it these days.

What's your take DG?

If months means three or less, I can believe it. But I can't see the active phase of the war going more than 6 months.

[Mr. Lucky]

Isn't it odd that none of these folks have names?

[Red Dog #1]

Do think they’ll bring Walter Concrite(sp?) out of retirement to tell us he now thinks the war can’t be won?

[mlbford2]

According to the 'experts' from last years analysis, we should be entering Masari Sharriff next month in Afghanistan.

[Paleo Conservative]

Yep, this officially is the New York Times Afghanistan "quagmire" article.

How do you have a quagmire in the desert?

[EternalVigilance]

"Tell me how this ends," one senior officer said today.

For you? Hopefully with a pinkslip...sooner rather than later.

[First_Salute]

I figure it'll take one to three more months.

[Cicero]

Well, yes and no. After all, you could argue that the Afghan war isn't over yet either. There are still a few troublemakers running around. But it's no big deal.

No doubt there will continue to be troublemakers in Iraq too. But we will soon control the whole country except Baghdad, and with luck we may control Baghdad in a month or so. If not, then no doubt we will eliminate Saddam's power to make significant sorties from the city in any strength, so most of our forces will be able to take breaks and live more comfortably while we wait for the city to surrender.

[MEG33]

I heard McCaffry on spreading gloom..too few troops.

[jacquej]

Maybe I should go check Saddam's astrological chart! Tea-leaves anyone?

[meenie]

It is a certainty that this cannot be a quagmire due to the desert conditions.

[Howlin]

[Howlin]

A most excellent reply.

[John H K]

The use of quagmire is metaphorical.

[Archangelsk]

These are the same morons who thought Afghanistan would take years.

We are still in Afghanistan, it has been almost 18 months, we are still hunting members of al-Qaeda and there is still a standing order to capture or kill Usama bin Laden.

Be careful who you call a "moron" because some of us morons have more than two decades of military service behind us. This gives us just slightly more experience and expertise than the average one-hitch wonder or never-served-in-the-service military geniuses that are legion around here. (And, yes, I support both wars).