ACADEMICIAN KOLESNIKOV: THE VIRUS OF ATYPICAL PNEUMONIA HAS BEEN CREATED ARTIFICIALLY (SARS ALERT)

Russian Information Agency Novosti ^ | 2003-04-10 | Alexander Batalin

[556x45]

Not exactly...the Russians were working on 'designer' bioweapons into the late 80's. That work included creating bacterias/viruses that had a combination of desired traits. One of those traits was extra fast transmission.

The other interesting note was that both the Russians and US were working on bioweapons that didnt kill...just incapacitated. That way they could take ground w/o necessarily killing off all (most) life. These weapons also werent easily transmitted after a certain period but before the toxic effect wore off. Its really amazing what the scientists and engineers of both countries cam up with.

[aristeides]

Do you think all the new cases are still being reported?

[EternalHope]

Aristeides: "Do you think all the new cases are still being reported?"

I have the same question.

Quotes like this one from a news conference today indicate Hong Kong has a real problem:

"I am afraid that if more hospital staff get infected, the entire health care system would collapse," Peter Wong, a spokesman for three major nurse unions, told a news conference. He said Hong Kong government hospitals were not providing staff with adequate protective gear.

[per loin]

Dunno. But there has always been the question of low level cases that did not require hospitalization.

[Centurion2000]

Who would bioengineer a really bad cold (which is what SARS is) when they they could weaponize smallpox, an outbreak of which would be much much worse.

I'm not saying this guy is right, but asking this question is like saying that we should use a 9 megaton B-53 bomb in place of a hand grenade.

Even bio-weapons have specific objectives.

[Orangedog]

* who created it?

China would be my guess, since that is where the first cases seem to have developed.

* who was the original target?

If it was Chinese in origin and if it was developed as a weapon, then Taiwan would be a safe assumption. When they make something for U.S. consumption, they won't do it piecemeal.

* deliberate or accidental release?

Accidental. IMO, most countries that develope these things know that using them can backfire on them in a big hurry.

What would be REALLY interesting is if they can cook up a biological equivalent of a binary weapon. This is where you have virus A and virus B...either of which is harmless by themselves. But if someone who has virus A in their system is exposed to virus B, then the interaction between them produces virus C, which is hidiously leathal. Doing this with a virus, while scientifically interesting, would not likely have any benefit other than making it hard to trace it's origin, since this could also backfire. Usually they just do this with poisons instead...much easier to contain the "splatter."

[Conservomax]

Interesting theory. I have heard of such weapons which would have the intent to add long term chronic problem in a country as opposed to killing off people.
Chronic epidemics obviously have detremental effects on a region, look at Africa with AIDS right now, or China's parasite problem during the industrial revolution. The theory is kind of like the idea shooting a soldier in the leg so it takes two more to carry him off of the battlefield. Only on a much larger scale.
If this outbreak had occured in Russia, I would buy the leaked weopons thing, but given the region's history of being a hotbed for new nasties I am going to have to go with the old Mother nature theory.

[DannyTN]

http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6262633%255E2,00.html

This link says it's traced to an animal. But who knows.

[boris]

"I agree. This virus comes from sleeping with ducks."

Peking duck is off the menu, I guess.

[Tauzero]

"142 had recovered, and 28 had died."

And 28 / (142+28) is 16%.

[EternalHope]

And 28 / (142+28) is 16%.

Yup. But you gotta whisper stuff like that.

I did that same calculation a few weeks back and had a bunch of freepers accusing me of basic stupidity. Seems they thought you should simply divide the total number of deaths by the total number of cases. I never did get through to 'em.

Another point the "this is no big deal" crowd often make is that we don't know how many people get sick, but not sick enough to go to the doctor. The contention is that if the mild cases were included we would see that this is not really that bad.

Only thing is, the initial outbreak at Prince of Wales Hospital does not support this contention at all. Almost none of the staff got only mildly sick. They either clearly had it, or they didn't. The same observation holds pretty much everywhere (except in the U.S.).

NOTE: In defense of the "many mild cases" crowd, we do not have a way to test people who do not show symptoms. Hence, many people may be getting mildly sick, but not enough to realize it.

The only place on earth that has shown any sign of many mild cases is the U.S. However, the U.S. has chosen to err on the side of caution. We have chosen to use such a broad definition of SARS they almost anyone with a cold and a history of travel to SE Asia is considered a "possible" SARS victim. Not surprisingly, most U.S. cases are mild.

The final "interesting" point is that the death rate right now is predicated on good medical care for everyone who needs it. SARS seems to be putting around 80% of its victims in the hospital (other than in the U.S.). What happens if/when the medical system gets overwhelmed?

[ScholarWarrior]

Yes. Pity. Though, like most fun things, it is fattening.

[JudgemAll]

I doubt it, it is neither contageous or deadly enough to be an efficient bio-weapon. When it comes down to it SARS isn't much more deadly than normal viral pneumonia, and it came from a region where most new cold/flu viruses originate.

With a 4% kill rate, SARS is a serious problem, especially due to its contagious nature. THe Spanish flue had the same level of kill rate and contagion and it killed 40 million worldwide in its 8 month streak. Sars could kill 200 million. It is an economic weapon.

[tracer]

Russia no doubt still is a player in this dirty business...

[riri]

The Spanish flue had the same level of kill rate and contagion and it killed 40 million worldwide in its 8 month streak

What eventually makes something like this die out on it's own? It would seem it could just keep going on and on as long as it had peple to infect. Is there another factor that eventually "burns" these things out?

[verity]

Sergei: Put down the vodka and slowly back away.

[JudgemAll]

It's a mystery why they burn out, but probably has to do with immunity. Those with the strong immunity survive the wave apparently. The Spanish flue attacked the young, this one is attacking the elderly.

[LurkedLongEnough]

"Scientists in Canada announced Sunday that they had identified the genetic code of the virus suspected of causing SARS - a surprisingly rapid achievement..."

Excerpt from: SARS Outbreak 'Grave,' China Leader Says

[boris]

"T[h]e Spanish flue had the same level of kill rate"

Nothing chimney sweeps couldn't handle...

--Boris