ACADEMICIAN KOLESNIKOV: THE VIRUS OF ATYPICAL PNEUMONIA HAS BEEN CREATED ARTIFICIALLY (SARS ALERT)

Russian Information Agency Novosti ^ | 2003-04-10 | Alexander Batalin

[EternalHope]

When it comes down to it SARS isn't much more deadly than normal viral pneumonia, and it came from a region where most new cold/flu viruses originate.

SARS is much more deadly than viral pneumonia, and much much more likely to put you in the hospital.

Some early mis-info on FR pointed out that hospital acquired pneumonia has a mortality rate of 9%, which was asserted to be higher than SARS. Hospital acquired pneumonia is more deadly than the pneumonia the public is generally afflicted with.

As an aside, the 4% mortality figure currently being used for SARS is computed by simply dividing the number of deaths by the number of victims. It is too soon to know how things will eventually work out, but the Hong Kong statistics are instructive. As of yesterday, Hong Kong had 970 cases. 800 were still in the hospital, some of whom will die. 142 had recovered, and 28 had died. I do not know the average length of a hospital stay, but based on the statistics it seems to be more than 2 weeks.

To say this is nothing more than a really bad cold is absurd.

[Quix]

IMHO,

THIS has been a very reasonable suspicion from the beginning.

China certainly has the . . . uhhh . . . . values to do it

and the priorities to do it.

[EternalHope]

Haven't paramyxoviruses been found in some of the victims?

Yes. They were the first candidate for SARS.

However, the U.S. CDC and the WHO now strongly believe a new virus from the coronavirus family is the culprit.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Boundless]

>> ... ineffective as a weapon ...

> As a strategic military weapon, agreed. But as a
> secondary type weapon that saps ecconomic resources
> and panics a population, it seems to be very effective.

That's pretty hard to control unless war is already
underway and travel is cut off.

If you've given some thought to the "secondary weapon"
scenarios, what are your insights on:
* who created it?
* who was the original target?
* deliberate or accidental release?

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Dispositon of Cases								Dead as % of cases at prior times
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		Day	Week		Hospital	%	Recover	%	Dead	%	Hospital Days		Day ago	3 Day	5 Day	Week	2 Week
Wed	03/19				150
Thu	03/20		23		173		15.3%
Fri	03/21		30		203		17.3%
Sat	03/22		19		222		9.4%
Sun	03/23		25		247		11.3%
Mon	03/24		13		260		5.3%
Tue	03/25		26		286		10.0%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%								Start
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%								figure
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%								of 4000
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%						10	2.1%	is a low		2.4%	3.2%	3.8%	4.5%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%						13	2.5%	Estimate:		2.8%	3.5%	4.5%	5.3%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%						15	2.5%			2.8%	3.5%	4.7%	5.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%						16	2.3%	4,000		2.6%	3.4%	4.4%	5.6%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		603	85.2%	89	12.6%	16	2.3%	4,603		2.3%	3.0%	3.8%	5.1%	10.7%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		619	84.3%	98	13.4%	17	2.3%	5,222		2.4%	2.8%	3.6%	4.6%	9.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		645	84.8%	99	13.0%	17	2.2%	5,867		2.3%	2.5%	3.2%	4.0%	8.4%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		673	84.1%	107	13.4%	20	2.5%	6,540		2.6%	2.8%	3.3%	4.3%	9.0%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		704	83.6%	116	13.8%	22	2.6%	7,244		2.8%	3.0%	3.2%	4.2%	8.9%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		733	83.0%	127	14.4%	23	2.6%	7,977		2.7%	3.0%	3.2%	3.8%	8.8%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		765	82.4%	138	14.9%	25	2.7%	8,742		2.8%	3.1%	3.4%	3.6%	8.7%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		801	82.6%	142	14.6%	27	2.8%	9,543		2.9%	3.2%	3.5%	3.8%	8.5%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		814	81.6%	154	15.4%	30	3.0%	10,357		3.1%	3.4%	3.8%	4.1%	8.2%
Averages			39	290			9.1%	88.6%			83.5%		13.9%		2.5%			2.7%	3.1%	3.7%	4.5%	9.0%

[pepperhead]

If you made a weapon like this; wouldn't you also make a vaccine so you don't take your side out?

What makes you think China doesn't want some of it's side taken out? What is the China policy on having children again?

[Conservomax]

Granted, but I still don't think it would be an effective bio-weapon. At least one to throw money after.

[Conservomax]

All that I am saying is that, in this case the most obvious answer is probably the correct one, that SARS is a naturally occuring mutated virus.

[Route66]

'It is too soon to know how things will eventually work out, but the Hong Kong statistics are instructive. As of yesterday, Hong Kong had 970 cases. 800 were still in the hospital, some of whom will die. 142 had recovered, and 28 had died. I do not know the average length of a hospital stay, but based on the statistics it seems to be more than 2 weeks.'
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have been reading similar statistics from reports in other cities affected by the disease. Aside from the concern over potential fatalities, most coverage of this seems to be missing the point that this disease brings HUGE numbers of extremely sick and highly contagious people to local hospitals for long stays and usually infects at least some medical caregivers, especially early on in the outbreak.

Look carefully at the numbers of those who have been and are still being hospitalized. A hospital with 200 beds is a good sized facility. In our country, most of our facilities are already being well used and filled with all other medical maladies. You can preserve a SARS death rate of 'only' 4% for as long as you have hospital beds and care available for those seriously affected in order to help them pull through.

Once medical resources in an area are overwhelmed and exhausted, not only would the death rate be expected to rise quickly from this disease, but people will not be able to receive the same care they do now for other urgent medical problems. During an outbreak in any given area, the high need for hospitalization which could fill all available beds, plus the risk of contamination and loss of medical personnel to the disease could create an across the board medical crisis.

Like everyone else, I'm trying to sort the fact from the fiction concerning this disease, but these seemingly undisputed facts concerning hospitalizations are disturbing to me.

[The Pheonix]

China suspects that she is the victim of a bio-weapon attack

Just listen carefully to what the Chinese Minister of Health said, at his press confrence, a few days ago. He said, "the virus did NOT originate in China"

[Route66]

Sorry - I just realized my post is off topic for this actual article which was concerning the possiblility that the disease is man-made, I just started putting my thoughts down concerning the hospitalization stats and got carried away.

[EternalHope]

...these seemingly undisputed facts concerning hospitalizations are disturbing to me.

Me too.

[riri]

but these seemingly undisputed facts concerning hospitalizations are disturbing to me

And largley uncovered facts. Although, most are quick to "blame" the media for whipping this story into a frenzy, I would argue quite the opposite.

When, and it's not to often, I hear a report it is in a quick segment that portrays this as a problem in Asia with a low death rate.

[riri]

What makes you think China doesn't want some of it's side taken out?

Absolutely, China doesn't worry about losing half their population. What China does worry about is loss of investment and business. Still building military machine, check back in five years.

[Hodar]

What makes you think China doesn't want some of it's side taken out?

I would suppose that if you wanted to eliminate an enemy, you would design a biological weapon with greater than 4% lethality. Also, you would want the disease to have a short incubation/duration period; so not to flood your hospitals with the sick. The average hospital stay for this is on the order of 10 days; and then there is a substancial liklihood of permanent lung tissue damage. It's serious, but not a weapon. It's far morelikely to turn on your own troops, than the population you wish to attack. Aas your troops tend to bunk together, eat together and live together.

[gnarledmaw]

On Tuesday(?) there was a thread claiming that the fellow who first showed up in the Hong Kong hospital had a connection to a Chinese bio lab. Supposedly when he checked in he had commented that he knew he had "an especially virulent" or "dangerous" illness, something along those lines.

Ive lost the thread, could someone with better searching ability and time confirm this?

[EternalHope]

I still don't think it would be an effective bio-weapon.

I agree.

A bio-weapon would have to hit the other guy harder than it hits you. Since China is the #1 suspect if it was man-made, and China is the hardest hit, it does not look like bio-warfare.

If this turns out to be man made, then I would suspect an accidental release of something that was being researched. The research could have been for possible weapons creation, but it could also have been for benign purposes. Either way, China would NEVER admit it was responsible.

[EternalHope]

Thank you sir.