WHO suspects hundreds more Beijing SARS deaths

The World Health organization said the killer SARS epidemic is much worse in China than officials have acknowledged, after finding unreported cases at secretive military hospitals.

The WHO said the capital, Beijing, may have five times the official number of 40 deaths after visiting hospitals run by the military "which seems to have its own system of reporting," said Wolfgang Preiser of the WHO team. .

WHO Executive Director for Communicable Diseases David Heymann said the team estimated there were at least 50 SARS patients in one military hospital alone. .

"They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases. .

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May. .

SARS has killed at least 65 people and infected 1,445 in mainland China -- nearly half of the world's cases -- since it first surfaced in southern Guangdong province in November. .

The virus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has been carried by air travellers to 23 countries, infecting more than 3,400 people and killing about 160 worldwide. .

Nine residents of a Hong Kong housing estate have come down with SARS, sparking fears of a repeat of an outbreak that ravaged another high-rise apartment complex recently in the territory of seven million people. .

Singapore and Hong Kong, both hit hard by the virus, have begun checking airline passengers for fevers. .

Australian authorities yesterday reported three probable SARS cases -- three children visiting from Canada -- in what could be the country's first cases. But they said the children had recovered and the disease has not spread to family members. .

The WHO officially confirmed that a member of the coronavirus family, never before seen in humans, causes the flu-like SARS, which is contagious, sometimes fatal and has no known cure. .

The finding allows scientist to focus on diagnostic tests, treatment and new vaccines -- if needed. .

Experts were optimistic the disease could be controlled using existing measures, but warned the coronavirus family tended to mutate relatively quickly. .

In a further sign of urgency, U.S. scientists have asked more than a dozen American and European healthcare companies to help develop a SARS vaccine, a process that could take years. .

"You grow the virus, kill it, and there you go. You have a vaccine. But it would still take years to actually have the vaccine in the bottle and ready to distribute," said Dr Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an interview. .

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson accused China of keeping information about SARS under wraps, thus letting the virus spread and claim more lives. .

"We've been very upset with the transparency of the Chinese government... We think lives could have been saved. We could have controlled it," he told Reuters in Rome. .

The criticism is bound to sting the Chinese leadership, which has taken steps to improve transparency after international condemnation for keeping quiet when SARS appeared. .

China said yesterday its economy grew 9.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter -- the fastest pace in six years -- but SARS will cast a pall over future growth. .

Economists estimate that the epidemic has already caused at least US$30 billion in losses worldwide and will pose more of a threat to Asia's economic growth than the war on Iraq, through lower tourist earnings and reduced consumer spending.

Hong Kong: Hospitalized SARS (Chicom-Flu) Cases																				Chart by per loin perloin@email.com
Time		Cases			Increase		Disposition													Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date	Day	Week	Total	Day	Week	Got well			Dead			Total Gone			In Hospital			Hosp Days	Week	2 Week	3 Week	Of Gone
							Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12	10		10												10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13	14		24	140.0%											14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14	5		29	20.8%											5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15	8		37	27.6%											8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16	5		42	*13.5%*											5	42	*100.0%*	142
Mon	03/17	53		95	126.2%											53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18	28	123	123	29.5%											28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19	27	140	150	22.0%	1400.0%	5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500	50.0%			50.0%
Thu	03/20	23	149	173	15.3%	620.8%	0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662	25.0%			54.5%
Fri	03/21	30	174	203	17.3%	600.0%	2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852	20.7%			46.2%
Sat	03/22	19	185	222	9.4%	500.0%	0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059	21.6%			53.3%
Sun	03/23	25	205	247	*11.3%*	*488.1%*	0	7	*2.8%*	2	10	*4.0%*	2	17	*6.9%*	23	230	*93.1%*	1,289	*23.8%*			*58.8%*
Mon	03/24	13	165	260	5.3%	173.7%	5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527	10.5%			45.5%
Tue	03/25	26	163	286	10.0%	132.5%	2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789	8.1%			41.7%
Wed	03/26	30	166	316	10.5%	110.7%	2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079	6.7%	100.0%		38.5%
Thu	03/27	51	194	367	16.1%	112.1%	3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417	5.8%	41.7%		34.5%
Fri	03/28	58	222	425	15.8%	109.4%	6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806	5.4%	37.9%		30.6%
Sat	03/29	45	248	470	10.6%	111.7%	18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221	5.4%	32.4%		21.8%
Sun	03/30	60	283	530	*12.8%*	*114.6%*	21	64	*12.1%*	1	13	*2.5%*	22	77	*14.5%*	38	453	*85.5%*	3,674	*5.3%*	*31.0%*		*16.9%*
Mon	03/31	80	350	610	15.1%	134.6%	15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190	5.8%	15.8%		16.0%
Tue	04/1	75	399	685	12.3%	139.5%	5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775	5.6%	13.0%		16.0%
Wed	04/2	23	392	708	3.4%	124.1%	5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378	5.1%	10.7%	160.0%	15.2%
Thu	04/3	26	367	734	3.7%	100.0%	9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997	4.6%	9.8%	70.8%	14.8%
Fri	04/4	27	336	761	3.7%	79.1%	1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642	4.0%	8.4%	58.6%	14.7%
Sat	04/5	39	330	800	5.1%	70.2%	8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315	4.3%	9.0%	54.1%	15.7%
Sun	04/6	42	312	842	*5.3%*	*58.9%*	9	116	*13.8%*	2	22	*2.6%*	11	138	*16.4%*	31	704	*83.6%*	8,019	*4.2%*	*8.9%*	*52.4%*	*15.9%*
Mon	04/7	41	273	883	4.9%	44.8%	11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752	3.8%	8.8%	24.2%	15.3%
Tue	04/8	45	243	928	5.1%	35.5%	11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517	3.6%	8.7%	20.3%	15.3%
Wed	04/9	42	262	970	4.5%	37.0%	4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318	3.8%	8.5%	18.0%	16.0%
Thu	04/10	28	264	998	2.9%	36.0%	12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132	4.1%	8.2%	17.3%	16.3%
Fri	04/11	61	298	1,059	6.1%	39.2%	15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990	4.2%	7.5%	15.8%	15.9%
Sat	04/12	49	308	1,108	4.6%	38.5%	46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848	4.4%	7.4%	15.8%	14.0%
Sun	04/13	42	308	1,150	*3.8%*	*36.6%*	8	223	*19.4%*	5	40	*3.5%*	13	263	*22.9%*	29	887	*77.1%*	13,735	*4.8%*	*7.5%*	*16.2%*	*15.2%*
Mon	04/14	40	307	1,190	3.5%	34.8%	6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649	5.3%	7.7%	18.1%	17.0%
Tue	04/15	42	304	1,232	3.5%	32.8%	14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582	6.0%	8.2%	19.6%	18.7%
Wed	04/16	36	298	1,268	2.9%	30.7%	14	257	20.3%	5	61	4.8%	19	318	25.1%	17	950	74.9%	16,532	6.3%	8.6%	19.3%	19.2%
Thu	04/17	29	299	1,297	2.3%	30.0%	15	272	21.0%	4	65	5.0%	19	337	26.0%	10	960	74.0%	17,492	6.5%	8.9%	17.7%	19.3%
Fri	04/18	30	268	1,327	2.3%	25.3%	50	322	24.3%	4	69	5.2%	54	391	29.5%	-24	936	70.5%	18,428	6.5%	9.1%	16.2%	17.6%

Averages		35	260		*16.5%*	*180.7%*	10		*12.0%*	2		*3.2%*	13		*15.2%*	25		*87.6%*		*9.1%*	*17.4%*	*36.1%*	*25.8%*
							Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date	Day	Week	Total	Day	Week	Got well			Dead			Total Gone			In Hospital			Hosp Days	Week	2 Week	3 Week	Of Gone
Time		Cases			Increase		Disposition													Dead as % of prior time

The article was a good one (I'm glad Cathy posted it), but I still suspect the reporter got "cases" and "deaths" mixed up. One of the advantages of FR is the chance to discuss possible mistakes in articles.

Here's why I suspect the author got mixed up:

The Chinese government has been insisting that the total number of CASES is about 40. There have been a multitude of articles stating that the total number of CASES could be five times that high, with the WHO cited as the source for that number. Hence my suspicion that the author of this article got mixed up and referred to "deaths" instead of "cases".

Remember, as of yesterday, Hong Kong was reporting 65 deaths. The reported total for the whole world was around 160 (I did not look up the exact number, but 160 is close). I would be extremely surprised if the WHO is saying Beijing has more deaths from SARS at this time than Hong Kong and the rest of the world combined.

However, just because I doubt the WHO would say publicly that they think Beijing alone has more SARS deaths than the reported world wide totals does not mean it might not be TRUE. The rest of the world is going to extraordinary lengths to keep this under control. Beijing is carting patients around in taxis in order to keep them from being found (as reported in another article posted by Cathy this morning).

Under these conditions, it would not take long for SARS to become widespread in Beijing (and all of China). 200 deaths would be insignificant compared to what they would be looking at in less than two months.

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