SARS: With Hong Kong & WHO charts 4/19

per loin

[per loin]

<p>

Hong Kong: Hospitalized SARS (Chicom-Flu) Cases																								Chart by per loin perloin@email.com
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		Day	Week	Total		Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			In Hospital			Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week	Of Gone
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%			50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%			54.5%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%			46.2%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%			53.3%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%			58.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%			45.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%			41.7%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%		38.5%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%		34.5%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%		30.6%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%		21.8%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%		16.9%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%		16.0%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%		16.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%	15.2%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%	14.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%	14.7%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%	15.7%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%	15.9%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%	15.3%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%	15.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%	16.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%	16.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%	15.9%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%	14.0%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%	15.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%	17.0%
Tue	04/15		42	304	1,232		3.5%	32.8%		14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582		6.0%	8.2%	19.6%	18.7%
Wed	04/16		36	298	1,268		2.9%	30.7%		14	257	20.3%	5	61	4.8%	19	318	25.1%	17	950	74.9%	16,532		6.3%	8.6%	19.3%	19.2%
Thu	04/17		29	299	1,297		2.3%	30.0%		15	272	21.0%	4	65	5.0%	19	337	26.0%	10	960	74.0%	17,492		6.5%	8.9%	17.7%	19.3%
Fri	04/18		30	268	1,327		2.3%	25.3%		50	322	24.3%	4	69	5.2%	54	391	29.5%	-24	936	70.5%	18,428		6.5%	9.1%	16.2%	17.6%
Sat	04/19		31	250	1,358		2.3%	22.6%		41	363	26.7%	12	81	6.0%	53	444	32.7%	-22	914	67.3%	19,342		7.3%	10.1%	17.2%	18.2%
Averages			35	260			16.1%	175.7%		11		12.5%	2		3.3%	14		15.8%	23		87.1%			9.0%	17.1%	35.1%	25.6%
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date		Day	Week	Total		Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			In Hospital			Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week	Of Gone
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time

[per loin]

Hong Kong has had a continual flow of new cases. That dilutes the "death rate" for a while. But notice on the Hong Kong chart how the death rate increases as the rate of hospitalization increase slows. I reckon the minimum Hong Kong death rate to be above 7%.

[Lady Heron]

So, if you only look at the numbers of those who either died or got well, the death rate is much higher? Are the cases of those still sick diluting the percent of death rate?

[aristeides]

Yes, and yes. I have a feeling media and government people, wanting to avoid panic, are eager to lower the death rate as much as they plausibly can.

[Lucy Lake]

Thanks for the ping.

[blam]

"Insurance firms may refuse cover to SARS-infected countries."

I expected something like this. Airlines and insurance companies will be the first to 'bite the dust.'

[Prince Charles]

The discovery that severe acute respiratory syndrome can spread through sewage systems raises new concerns that the virus may have become more virulent and harder to control, according to health officials.

Hong Kong's health secretary, Dr. Yeoh Eng-kiong, said this week that sewage is responsible for SARS infecting 321 people at the Amoy Gardens high-rise apartment complex in Hong Kong. She said ventilation fans sucked particles of the virus out of a faulty sewage system and spread it throughout the building.

Sewage Puts A New Spin On SARS

[Dog Gone]

link

Snake oil salesmen beware. The Chinese government has stepped up police efforts against opportunistic streetside peddlers who have been selling everything from fake medicine to cheap surgical masks in an effort to cash in on public fears of SARS. The Beijing Legal Times reported hawkers were asking 10 yuan (about $1.80) for a mask worth one yuan, and others were selling cough medicine claiming it was a special anti-SARS potion. One man was caught asking 50 yuan for a secret tonic called Black and White, which he claimed to have obtained from a hospital stockpiling it for private use. In fact, it was a one-yuan bottle of cough syrup to which the man had added some flour. He said he had made a 1,000-yuan profit.

[blam]

Hong Kong SARS deaths take biggest daily jump

HONG KONG (AFP) - Hong Kong suffered its blackest day in the SARS (news - web sites) crisis yet as 12 more deaths were announced -- the highest jump in a single day.

Forty-six people have died from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) here in the past week, more than half the 81 SARS deaths recorded in the territory since the first fatality on March 13, according to government figures.

Authorities do not include in their figures an American national who was pronounced dead on arrival at a Hong Kong hospital last week after being transferred from mainland China.

The number of dead in Hong Kong, which also has nearly 1,360 cases, now far outweighs official figures for China's toll which climbed to 67 Saturday with another death reported in state media.

But China -- which officially has more than 1,500 cases and where the death toll reached 67 with another fatality reported by state media Saturday -- was tipped to be on the verge of dramatically revising its figures on the orders of President Hu Jintao after allegations authorities were covering up the true extent of the crisis.

The speculation came as the head of the working group on SARS control in Beijing said no hospital in the capital should refuse to treat those suspected of suffering from the respiratory illness on pain of punishment, the state news agency reported.

Liu Qi, who is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPC, said if a suspected patient is confirmed as having SARS they must be removed to a hospital designated to deal with the outbreak.

Liu was speaking at a meeting of the heads of major hospitals in Beijing, the Xinhua news agency reported.

Meanwhile, Singapore also reported another death Saturday, taking its toll to 14, the third highest in the world.

Hong Kong's dramatic announcement of 12 more deaths came as hundreds of thousands of residents mucked in to clean up the city's polluted streets and buildings in an attempt to put the epidemic in check.

SARS has spread like wildfire in some of Hong Kong's densely populated housing estates, with more than 300 cases in one housing block blamed on a faulty sewage system.

Ahead of the two-day weekend clean-up which will see the disinfection of housing estates, parks and commercial premises, Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa acknowledged the SARS outbreak had been disastrous.

SARS has inflicted damage on the city's economy and the health and mental well-being of residents, Tung said Friday.

"No matter which way you look at it, it is a disaster," said Tung.

Hong Kong authorities meanwhile released figures showing that the mortality rate of SARS in the territory was 4.6 percent of cases, with 47.5 percent of the fatalities of people aged 65 or older.

The outbreak also threatened to have a dramatic impact on Singapore unless swift action was taken to bring it under control, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong said Saturday.

"We are dealing with a crisis of fear," Goh said. "Very importantly, we have to show in the weeks to come that we are on top of the problem. The stake is very high. We cannot afford to fail in this battle."

Saturday's new deaths pushed the global toll from SARS to at least 184 while the number of infections has surged past 3,700. Other deaths are in Canada (13), Vietnam (5), Thailand (2) and Malaysia (1).

The United States, however, has reduced its official number of cases from 208 to 36 by switching to a WHO method of only counting probable cases.

Canada, the worst-hit country outside of Asia, also said it was reducing its number of cases from 306 to 304.

In other developments, Vietnam said it was considering closing its land border with China where the disease is believed to have originated in November.

And India announced a second probable case, a 42-year-old New Zealander who recently flew in from Bangkok.

The WHO has pinpointed the coronavirus -- a virus family which causes the common cold -- as the cause of SARS, which begins with fever, a cough and shortness of breath.

There is no cure, vaccine or diagnostic test for the mysterious respiratory virus.

[Prince Charles]

WHO: China expected to release far worse numbers of SARS casualties

  The World Health Authority says China is expected to announce far worse figures on the number of people infected with SARS. The WHO said Chinese President Hu Jintao has ordered public officials to declare all suspected cases not to withhold information. The WHO said Chinese doctors had tried to hide patients before a visit by WHO inspectors. The SARS virus - which causes a disease resembling the common cold - originated in China. In Hong Kong, twelve people died of the disease on Saturday, a record for single day. The World Health Organisation says 3,461 people worldwide have SARS. About one in twenty people who get it, die from it.

[WestCoastGal]

How many people did she infect by being so careless?? The people in the plane, her family, their friends, their co-workers, the Dr's office, his patients, the hospital staff and on and on. This will happen with all these dumb people that have to travel and don't have a clue about what they are carrying back here or don't care!!