SARS Much More Deadly Than First Estimated

New Scientist ^ | 4-25-2003 | Debora MacKenzie

[jonathonandjennifer]

Well, how the heck is the rest of the world going to blame this in the U.S. in general, and George Bush in particular?

The same way they blamed us for the looting in bhagdad, "We should have prevented it."

[steve86]

I read that Chicago had a total of only 100 automatic ventilators across all facilities. Podunk probably has fewer than that.

But after reading about the gruesome "intubation" procedure (tube in throat), and the need to strap down many patients for the duration, I might just let someone else have the experience!

(But OTOH, my step daughter survived a whole year on one).

[jonathonandjennifer]

You're ignoring the fact that SARS is new. The number of cases per month will increase geometrically, less any benefit quarintining may have.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I think you've missed the meaning of the statement you commented on by about a mile and a half.

Next year at this time you won't even remember what "SARS" means. This is a complete media hysteria epidemic.

But go ahead and get hysterical with them if it makes you happy.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

You're ignoring the fact that SARS is new.

You're ignoring the fact that it may not be. The sum total of what medical science does NOT know far exceeds what it does.

[Judith Anne]

Give an example of what you consider hysteria, please.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

P. S. How many SARS deaths were there a month ago? How much has the percentage changed?

There may have been thousands. You don't know, and the medical establishment doesn't know. They identified a specific virus as the cause, but now lots of people with SARS don't even have the virus.

Don't seem to know much, do we, other than that we should all get hysterical because the media says so.

[Mr. Mulliner]

But go ahead and get hysterical with them if it makes you happy.

What?

My comment was that you were misunderstanding the statement. When it says that the rate of death was 30% for people over 70, it means that 30% of the people over 70 who contracted SARS died from the disease.

You seemed to be interpreting it to mean that SARS was responsible for 30% of the death of people over 70.

I realize you think this is media hysteria and perhaps there's some truth to that, but I don't think you've demonstrated any expertise to make a good case for saying that. If in a year from now we'll have forgotten about SARS, it will be because there will be some major work done on SARS that will help to stop its spread and prevent new outbreaks, not because the media will move onto a different topic.

[jonathonandjennifer]

You're ignoring the fact that it may not be.

Yes, I am. You've already covered that option.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Give an example of what you consider hysteria, please.

Quarantines, like the ones they are imposing in China.

They won't work, but now that we have the technology to pseudo-identify new strains of old diseases we can use them as an excuse to be the equivalent of medical SWAT teams, kicking in doors and blowing people away because the anti-terror bureaucracies must justify their existence by doing something that appears productive.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

You seemed to be interpreting it to mean that SARS was responsible for 30% of the death of people over 70.

Where did I say that? I defy you to find it.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Yes, I am. You've already covered that option.

Where?

[jonathonandjennifer]

Dude, chill. Put on some music and relax.

[Mr. Mulliner]

500 / 50,000,000 = 0.001% of the deaths expected this year are due to SARS.

Forgive me if I misunderstood, but this statement that you made above is a comment on what percentage of deaths is caused by SARS. That seems like a non sequitur if not a misunderstanding of the meaning of the statistics you had quoted above which were statements about what percentage of SARS victims ended up dying.

You do seem a bit riled up about this. Is it that you are so excited because this SARS thing is now playing into your paranoid fear of the government's anti-terrorism efforts and you want us to all latch onto that paranoia too?

[Judith Anne]

There may have been thousands. You don't know, and the medical establishment doesn't know. They identified a specific virus as the cause, but now lots of people with SARS don't even have the virus.

Actually, SARS patients don't manufacture the antigen needed to test for the coronavirus' presence until several weeks have passed. Those who are immune compromised for a number of possible reasons may not manufacture it for even longer--and may not survive it, either.

It's irresponsible, in my opinion, to label serious attention to a new coronavirus with lethal potential as "hysteria." I'm a nurse, and if this virus gets a foothold in the US, I'll likely be taking care of some of the patients--maybe even you. I'm concerned. I want to know all I can, asap. So does every other nurse I know. FR is an excellent source of information. Perhaps you consider that hysteria?

[jonathonandjennifer]

In your analysis in reply #49. I beleive you based your conclusion that SARS is no big deal your analysis using the number of deaths so far this year as a constant for every year.

[jonathonandjennifer]

I guess E. Pluribus took my advice. Good night all.

[FreepForever]

There’s always a chance that the health care system will be overwhelmed in a epidemic like SARS. Here is a summary of measures being taken in infected areas.

1) Move all other general patients to other hospitals to prevent further infection.
2) Cancel all non-emergency operations (including cancer) because operation rooms are changed into make-shift ICU beds to make up for the inadequacy.
3) All hospital workers (from doctors to helpers) who treat SARS patients are quarantined too. They are not allowed to go home and must stay in make-shift quarters.
4) Borrow respirators from other hospitals that have less respiratory sickness (non-SARS) patients.
5) Maximum protection gear for all personnel entering SARS wards (masks, goggles, protective clothing, gloves, shoes covers, etc.). Despite all these measures, 30% of new cases are still medical workers due to the long hours. This is quite discouraging.
6) Strictly no visiting of SARS patients. They cannot see their family members before they die. They allow them to use web-cam though. No last rite allowed. Sealed coffin, no make-up allowed. No last goodbye in funeral.
7) Medical care workers that are in contact with SARS patients are encouraged to write their wills. Insurance companies have announced that SARS is not covered.

SARS is an epidemic that we know very little about. The administration has to fight it with maximum flexibility in allocation of available resources.

[FreepForever]

All these are happening in Hong Kong now:

70% of the population wear a face mask. Some with disposable gloves too.

Lifts buttons are covered with a plastic sheet which is changed every 2 to 3 hours. All public places are fumigated daily. some twice.

An entire housing complex is cordoned off with all residents sent into quarantine.

Strictly no family visiting of all patients (including non-SARS patients) in hospitals. No last rite allowed. Patient cannot see their family before they die. They allow them to use web cam, though. Imagine seeing how your loved one die on your own computer screen.

All non-emergency operations are cancelled (including cancer). Operation room are converted to facilitate increasing demand of ICU beds. Private hospital (which do not accept SARS patients to prevent further contamination) beds are “drafted” to accommodate general patients.

Medical cars workers serving SARS patients are requested to write their wills. Despite full protection, they still constitute 1/3 of the new cases. They are real heroes.

Medical care workers are not allowed to go home after shift to prevent infecting family members. They must stay in make shift quarters. Some haven’t seen their family for a month.

Forced abortion for all pregnant SARS patients under 13 weeks to prevent birth defect.

No make-up allowed for patients died of SARS. Coffin must be sealed. Can’t even say last goodbye in funeral.

No confession, no holy communion, no holy water, no hand shakes in Roman Catholic churches.

All schools suspended (3 weeks). Some even indefinitely in infected areas. All students must pass temperature check and step on disinfectant soaked carpet before entering school. Hand wash every hour. Strict all day face mask rule. Heavy dose Vitamin C for every student. No school lunch in canteen. Teacher supervised lunch in classroom only (strictly no talking). No physical contact with other student.

Temperature check at airport. One passenger found sick, entire plane is quarantined. 500 infrared detecting machine are installed in land transport immigration points to check passenger’s temperature.

Most sports events and concerts are cancelled. Those which still take place will check temperature of every audience. If fever is found, ticket will be refunded immediately. An embulance is waiting at the front door to transport that audience to hospital.

All shops, banks, offices, restaurants, schools will be closed immediately for disinfection if one case is found among the staff. Entire team of staff will be sent into quarantine.

Cinemas and restaurants are closing down. Airplanes are grounded. Hotel are empty. It is now causing an “economic meltdown” in a once prosperous city.

Now tell me, is this hysteria? Or your ignorance?

[aristeides]

Could SARS already be that mutated strain that you say might occur after AIDS goes through an AIDS victim? There's no shortage of AIDS victims in China.