[Tarsk]

Two very good SARS resources sites:

http://www.sarswatch.org/

http://agonist.got.net/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.cgi?board=SARS

[goldstategop]

Possible? Not likely. You can always extrapolate figures to make things seem worse than they really are. We've been lucky to avoid a major SARS outbreak in the U.S and if the number of cases drop it may be remembered as no more than a set of hyped local outbreaks. Which do not a worldwide epidemic or pandemic make.

[Rodney King]

Since early this morning, the temperature had gone up by three degree outside my house. If it keep rising at this rate, we will all be dead within a few days.

[verity]

Y2K revisited.

[buffyt]

PING SARS thread

[StockAyatollah]

Bunk! Nothing grows at 3.5% per day and just keeps growing at the same rate. The law of dimishing returns sets in. We may someday reach 100 million cases of SARS. But I'll need a better forecast than some dude's post on the message board of a federal reserve economist's web site.

[ido_now]

JUST LEAVE IT UP TO ME, AND THERE WILL BE 1,000,000,000,000,000 (THAT'S QUADRILLION) REPORTED CASES OF SARS NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST 200 ACTUAL CASES, BUT WHO WILL KNOW?

[handk]

SARS Scam Web Site

[browardchad]

The situation I find most worrisome at the moment is actually in Singapore. The government there does not have a reputation for, um, "mildness" or lack of control, but their growth rate in cases this month has been about 3% PER DAY.

How about factoring in the reaction of the populace to "mildness" in Singapore and China? Fearing their repressive governments, people are less likely to report symptoms and hand themselves over to isolation, thus spreading contagion. In Canada's case, factor in socialized medicine, which means long waits for doctor appointments, and add the government's "culturally sensitive" policies which inhibit singling out any one country/ethnic group of origin -- both probable contributing causes to the spread of the disease early on.

[Carry_Okie]

6) The situation I find most worrisome at the moment is actually in Singapore. The government there does not have a reputation for, um, "mildness" or lack of control, but their growth rate in cases this month has been about 3% PER DAY. That is better than 3.5% (especially when compounding), but does not qualify as "control" in the big picture.

Read this one for what it says this time, and think about what I've been trying to tell you.

Infection control in our border hospitals is a joke compared to Singapore.

[Lucas1]

No new cases that we know of in Toronto in the past two weeks. THIS IS GREAT NEWS...possibly contained here at this time!

Let us hope so! The more we can slow this down the better chance that we can find a way to treat this disease...before things get really out of control.

It can be contained...don't give up hope just yet folks!

Toronto is a great example of how it can be contained...

It just takes a WHOLE lot of work!

[Cicero]

IF it remains as contagious as it seems to be, then I would expect something on the order of the Influenza deaths at the end of the First World War. Anything from 20 million to 100 million.

It's much more dangerous than Ebola because it's airborn. To catch ebola you either need to eat monkeys or get infected blood on yourself.

One British expert said on Thursday that it may not spread all that fast. Let's hope so. And if it continues to mutate, that means a vaccine may be difficult or impossible to develop but it also may mean it will become less deadly.

The worst case scenario is very serious indeed. Backward countries would suffer most, but the US would suffer badly too.

[ido_now]

MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.