Billion SARS cases feared

Sunday Herald Sun, via News Interactive (Australia) ^ | 27 April 2003 | Mary Papadakis

[EternalHope]

Billion SARS cases feared By Mary Papadakis 27Apr03

MORE than one billion people worldwide could be infected by the deadly SARS virus within a year, a leading UK scientist has warned.

Dr Patrick Dixon, a specialist in predicting global trends based at London's Development Management School, said SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) had the potential to turn into a pandemic and infect more people than AIDS. The grim prediction comes as a Melbourne infection control specialist warned the virus could destroy Third World countries.

Glenys Harrington, who flew to Manila yesterday to join the World Health Organisation's assault on SARS, said the virus was a major threat to developing nations.

"Countries that are Third World or very poor may in fact be easily overwhelmed by SARS," she said.

"It could devastate some of these countries. It's important to offer any kind of assistance to them now.

"If we don't have a global effort to help countries that are under-resourced, it can get out of control."

In other developments:

UK scientists said a SARS vaccine could be ready by the end of the year but safety checks could delay its introduction for two years and it was not expected to work indefinitely because the virus is mutating.

THE first commercial diagnostic test for SARS, developed by German biotechnology company Artus, should arrive in Australia next week.

THE WHO has called for an official global hunt to track down every possible case and halt the explosive epidemic.

VIETNAM will be declared the first country to contain the virus if no new cases are diagnosed by April 30.

CHINA intensified its efforts against the virus, launching a national SARS control centre and a 10-step strategy for tackling the crisis, including improved quarantine and free medical services to poor SARS patients.

TAIWAN relocated 480 health workers, who were quarantined with 600 patients and visitors at SARS-ravaged Taipei Municipal Ho Ping Hospital, to military barracks.

HONG KONG officials took samples from a apartment block, the Hing Tung House, where seven people became ill.

Ms Harrington, 46, who is The Alfred hospital's infection control program co-ordinator, said she would help assess the preparedness of the country to which she was assigned to treat SARS.

Her six-week mission includes reviewing isolation, infection control and cleaning procedures, demonstrating how to use personal protective equipment and developing strategies in case of a SARS outbreak.

"We are certainly doing the same things here but we are in a different situation in that we are better resourced," she said.

"In Victoria, we are very well prepared from an infectious diseases point of view."

SARS is believed to be transmitted by tiny droplets from coughs or sneezes.

But there is also evidence it can be caught by touching contaminated objects such as door handles.

Experts have advised people to wash hands regularly and wear masks when travelling in SARS-affected areas.

SARS patients have been advised to wear masks and sneeze into a tissue which should then be flushed down the toilet or placed in a sealed plastic bag and thrown away.

A nine-year-old NSW boy remains the only Australian being monitored for SARS.

Four Australians were notified to the WHO as probable SARS cases, including three siblings in Victoria, but all recovered fully.

There have been more than 280 deaths from 4600 cases of SARS reported worldwide.

This report appears on news.com.au.

[EternalHope]

This article merely states the obvious. It does not state this WILL happen, merely that it could.

If SARS gets out of the box and turns into a worldwide pandemic, LOTS of people could get it. It is the reason such enormous efforts are being made to contain SARS.

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

[_Jim]

*I* fear only one case - me!

[Arkinsaw]

*I* fear only one case - me!

LOL, finally some truth on the SARS threads.

[jlogajan]

Plus the fact that extremely deadly diseases tend to mutate to milder forms -- or to put it another way, those that kill their hosts too quickly don't get a chance to spread as far as those mutations that are milder. So there is a natural selector for milder disease mutations.

[_Jim]

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

LOL!

Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?

Anyway, what are you REALLY afraid of - you're GOING to die of something SOME day anyway!

[EternalHope]

*I* fear only one case - me!

What about your loved ones, and your friends?

[Palladin]

EEK! This is not a good day to come to FRee Republic! Is there any good news out there?

RE: SARS. The Malthusian population controllers must be dancing in the streets! This is beyond their wildest expectations for the 21st century.

[_Jim]

What about your loved ones, and your friends?

What about them - do you know them too?

[alnitak]

What I find interesting is that SARS isn't spreading very fast. Think about it - it's been around in Southern China for at least a couple of months now, one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and there are only ~4000 people who have caught it. If this was the "Andromeda Strain" it would have gone global by now.

This is not to say that it won't - first cases are being reported in the Phillippines and India, and we may see them popping up in Africa in the next couple of weeks - but the "wave of death" scenarios don't seem to be coming true.

[EternalHope]

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?

If I was worried about it I would not have posted the article. I put on my flame proof underwear first.

[EternalHope]

What I find interesting is that SARS isn't spreading very fast.

It looks like we can stop SARS if we catch it early enough and try hard enough. Singapore, Hanoi, Toronto, and even Hong Kong are testimony to that probable fact.

China is another story. No one has any idea how many cases they have, most likely including their own government.

[_Jim]

I put on my flame proof underwear first.

Honestly, just WHO has had the gall to 'flame' you on a medical thread?

Oh, sorry - a 'fear-based' thread about a disease that has not really even established a foot-hold inside the United States of America?

[RightWhale]

MORE than one billion people worldwide could be infected by the deadly SARS virus within a year

If people continue to avoid washing their hands religiously there could be 60,000 cases in a year. One billion is hyperbolic.

[Nov3]

If it gets out of China/Tiawan/Hong Kong. That is not a small possibility. The good news is almost all of the cases outside this area are in world class hospitals. The bad news is that the staff of these hospitals are still catching SARS despite their best precautions. It has (outside of hospital staff) had no new cases in Toronto. Hong Kongs rate of new cases has fallen. If we can isolate China things look good. That of course is a huge if.

[alnitak]

Agreed. Deadly, but not very infectious. Viruses have a limited amount of RNA bases available to them. If they devote those bases to "infectiousness" they have less available for "lethality". Or vice versa, in the case of SARS.

At least that's my layman's understanding from Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague". Fascinating stuff, especially about how bacteria exchange genes in a sort of cross-species mating frenzy.

China is the problem, they have the most cases and if a "reservoir" of infection is established there it will eventually spread all around the world.

[Palladin]

I see a new world religion emerging: The Church of the Compulsive Handwashers

[EternalHope]

Oh, sorry - a 'fear-based' thread about a disease that has not really even established a foot-hold inside the United States of America?

We certainly agree about SARS not being established in the U.S. I have zero personal concern about catching SARS anywhere in the U.S. today. Nor do I think that situation is likely to change any time in the near future.

Whether it changes in the medium/long term depends on events that have not happened yet.

Hence my support for strong efforts to put SARS back in its box. And my disgust for the way China has handled SARS.

[_Jim]

I see a new world religion emerging: The Church of the Compulsive Handwashers

See: Japan.

[Age of Reason]

those that kill their hosts too quickly don't get a chance to spread as far as those mutations that are milder. So there is a natural selector for milder disease mutations.

Except in cases of high population density, where a deadly organsim can leap from host to host quickly.

This and our modern world which is shrunk via air travel, makes a potential disaster possible.

Your principle did not stop the black death of the 14th cent--and that in a world less populous than ours.

That, too, was a disease brought to the West from the East--and by ships (engaged in trade), the 14th century's equivalent of modern air travel.

[EternalHope]

If we can isolate China things look good. That of course is a huge if.

Agree completely with both your comments.

[El Sordo]

"The Church of the Compulsive Handwashers"

I may already be an Apostle.

[Palladin]

I have elderly relatives in Florida who, for years, have been wearing disposable plastic gloves whenever they go to the supermarket or the Walmart. They've made it into their late eighties. 'Twould be a shame for SARS to take them out.

[Huber]

"Countries that are Third World or very poor may in fact be easily overwhelmed by SARS," she said.

"It could devastate some of these countries. It's important to offer any kind of assistance to them now.

"If we don't have a global effort to help countries that are under-resourced, it can get out of control."

NY Times Headline: METEOR DESTROYS EARTH; WOMEN AND MINORITIES HARDEST HIT!

[EternalHope]

For an excellent article addressing the problems with modeling the SARS outbreak, go here: Mathematical SARS modeling

[ChemistCat]

Don't touch doorknobs, phones, public keyboards without washing your hands right afterward, either. I always turn off the water and open the door with a paper towel. And clip your fingernails SHORT. Long fingernails give infectious agents a place to hide from even the hottest water and strongest soap.

Flu epidemics have been the rule rather the exception in human history--we have had a remarkably long interval without a major epidemic. We've been lucky because the influenza vaccine available to us each year is a crapshoot--they guess which strains are likely to spread, and if they're wrong, you might as well have gotten a sugar-water shot.

If people who are sick would just quit being the hero-who-comes-to-work-with-a-102-fever, and if employers and schools would revise their policies to favor the sick staying home, we could drastically cut the common cold and flu transmission each year, as well as any number of stomach bugs.

[First Amendment]

- it's been around in Southern China for at least a couple of months now, one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and there are only ~4000 people who have caught it.

This is PRC's official line (lie-n) and I don't think anyone believes it - especially not the Chinese themselves. If you read many of the articles posted here you won't believe it either.

[Joe Hadenuf]

If SARS gets out of the box and turns into a worldwide pandemic, LOTS of people could get it.

You mean it hasn't?

As the jumbo jets are lined up from here to Asia, landing on a runway near you......

Do you think they would stop this travel into the U.S. from Asia? They wont. Bet the rent.....

[bart99]

Let's not forget how the AIDS virus (HIV) started.... and spread some 15 to 20 years ago. A few cases here.... a few more...... a few deaths.... then more....... and now..... 10's of millions with HIV and 30 million in Africa alone..... even with all the medical activity to control/cure it.

This is eerily familiar.

And how come it's not spreading among the islamic fundamentalists/extremists? Can't we get it there? *L*

OK.... sorry about that last comment.

[TaxRelief]

Welcome to the
SARSaholic Therapy Group!

Come on in, let's discuss your fears!
How do you FEEL about the trauma of disease outbreaks.
But, but, did you tell anyone you felt that way?

[bart99]

*LOL*

[ido_now]

MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.

[Mini-14]

Is there a difference between 'Pandemic' and 'Epidemic'? My dictionary seems to suggest that the two words are completely synonymous.

[EternalHope]

Might I suggest you invest in the $11 version?

Just a thought.

[EternalHope]

A pandemic is an epidemic, on a larger scale.

[TBall]

"*I* fear only one case - me!" You don't have any friends or loved ones?

[Joe Hadenuf]

Cute graphic. Next time just stick your head in the sand. It takes up much less bandwidth.

[thegreatbeast]

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.......bwahahahahahahahaha.

[Lessismore]

If people who are sick would just quit being the hero-who-comes-to-work-with-a-102-fever, and if employers and schools would revise their policies to favor the sick staying home, we could drastically cut the common cold and flu transmission each year, as well as any number of stomach bugs.

We should also eliminate large day-care centers, open plan offices, and having students change rooms between classes.

[Lessismore]

MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

The free one in MS Windows can be used to calculate exponential functions if you change the view to "scientific".

[Consort]

We're all going to die. Don't produce any more sitcoms.

[Consort]

...and I'm going into the funeral business.

[Plutarch]

"If we don't have a global effort to help countries that are under-resourced, it can get out of control."

Watch out for your wallets! Nothing gets the political class excited more than a Big Scare to use as a pretext for pilfering. That is what Global Warming is all about, after all.

"Greenpeace fund-raisers on the subject of global warming are not much different than tribal wizards on the subject of lunar eclipses. "Oh no, the Night Wolf is eating the Moon Virgin. Give me some silver and I'll make him spit her out."

P.J. O'Rourke

[Lucas1]

Quote "What I find interesting is that SARS isn't spreading very fast. Think about it - it's been around in Southern China for at least a couple of months now, one of the
most densely populated areas in the world, and there are only ~4000 people who have caught it. If this was the "Andromeda Strain" it would have gone global
by now.
"

ROFL ummm...you believe this? 4000 people? LOL...a couple of weeks ago they said they had a couple of hundred cases ;) They have a lot more than 4000...

[EternalHope]

Is that your best shot?

[riri]

I don't see this kind of hostile reaction on the 500 Lacie Peterson-Dixie Chicks threads? I wonder why this topic seems to bring out such rage? Latent fear? hmmmm.

[EternalHope]

Agree completely about the political class in general, and global warming in particular.

Unfortunately, the current situation is like the little boy who cried "wolf".. When the real wolf finally arrived, nobody believed him.

SARS is the real deal. The world looks like it may muddle through well enough to beat it, in spite of WHO/UN idiocies and venal politicians, everywhere except China.

[Judith Anne]

I agree. It's almost as though some are afraid to even look at the illness...(please excuse me for butting in...)

[joyful1]

seems like a tempest in a cup of tea to me

[EternalHope]

D'Nile ain't just a river in Egypt...

I suppose I should have added another line or two to my reply to Plutarch. It seems obvious, but...

If the whole world except China beats SARS, then SARS will eventually spread to the whole world.

[F16Fighter]

Who's doing the math here??

Must be the same guy who swore 600 million African slaves had died on ships bound for America way back when...