[Judith Anne]

One in a million has SARS, in the space of a few months.

[Judith Anne]

One in a million might not sound like bad odds to most people, to me, it's a matter of grave concern...thoughts?

[ricpic]

"He cautioned that even if the virus changes so that it causes less severe disease, that might not be a good thing--people might not get sick enough to go to the hospital and therefore would spread SARS more easily."

To me, that's the most frightening thing I've read about SARS, by far. After all, I mutating virus can mutate into a weaker strain, spread through a much larger percentage of the population, and then re-mutate into a deadly strain again.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

With summer coming on there's a good chance the disease will die out. If it doesn't, by next winter the potential for this thing really exploding is huge, especially the way it's mutating.

[LuisBasco]

The deputy director of the city's health department, Liang Wannian, said similar numbers of new cases -- about 100 a day -- can be expected for the foreseeable future. "I think it will take us a long time to eliminate this disease," he said.

I can't help but "speculate" that perhaps this is a Chinese biowar experiment, no doubt intended for Taiwan-or North America, that escaped the laboratory.

[harpseal]

One in a million has SARS, in the space of a few months.

That is because the incidence has gone from 1 in 6 Billion to one in a million in a few months. Exponential growth of the number of cases does not bode well.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The number of SARS cases continued to rise Friday, reaching more than 6,000, as a Hong Kong researcher reported that the virus linked to the disease appears to be changing rapidly.

Or, more likely, they don't have a clue as to which virus is causing it.

[keri]

ping

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] Based on World Health Organization daily tables                 (Revised: 5/03am)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Recent** Death Rate		Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
Hong Kong	878	170	17.2%		563	97	16.6%
Singapore	146	25	23.1%		32	7	15.8%
China	1372	181	41.0%		2246	921	29.0%
Canada	93	22	26.9%		34	9	20.8%
elsewhere [26 countries]	154	19	18.8%		119	22	14.0%
World-wide [all 30 countries]	2643	417			2994	1056	24.3%
**  ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days)

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger [reflects containment]
Date	Hong Kong	Singapore	China	Canada	elsewhere 26 countries	World-wide all 30 countries
Apr 19	914	61	307	62		1616
Apr 20	893	64	497	65		1694
Apr 21 (est.)	872	66	686	66		1771
Apr 22	874	60	708	61	80	1783
Apr 23	831	58	968	62	86	2005
Apr 24	812	55	1058	58	76	2059
Apr 25	781	50	1209	51	78	2169
Apr 26	774	51	1346	47	86	2304
Apr 27 (est.)	738	45	1415	47	98	2336
Apr 28	709	39	1484	47	108	2387
Apr 29	663	38	1833	40	108	2682
Apr 30	641	38	1969	41	132	2821
May 1	604	33	2117	40	117	2911
May 2	563	32	2246	34	119	2994
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery)

Observations:

• Treatment:
  • The 'elsewhere' 26 countries as a whole, had a VERY bad day
    with 5 new deaths and only 6 new recoveries...
    (a 45% one-day death rate)
  • Almost everyone's (except Hong Kong's) 7-day death rates rose again.
  • These pushed the overall projected Mortality to
    another new record high: 24.3%
• Containment:
  • No major changes. China still has little or no apparent containment.

Here is a COOL " Interactive guide - The spread of Sars"

[TheLion]

Thanks for the post.