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Posted on 05/04/2003 9:40:31 AM PDT by John Jorsett
The effort launched last year to recall Gov. Gray Davis has fallen into the "and yet" category.
Nearly every political professional in the state dismisses the campaign -- being mounted by an anti-tax crusader and a political consultant whose candidate lost to Davis last year.
But they always add, "... and yet."
And yet, as in, if public interest builds as the petition drive nears the 900,000 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot.
And yet, as in, whether the campaign can raise money needed to hire professional firms.
And yet, as in, whether major political figures decide to back the measure and announce their candidacy for governor.
"Forget the Internet. Forget talk radio. Forget the volunteers and mail," said Sal Russo, the Sacramento-based consultant who managed the unsuccessful campaign of Republican Bill Simon against Davis last year.
"Forget all of that, and we have passed a landmark no one thought we would get to. I hate to embarrass everybody, but we are succeeding."
The landmark passed last week was the filing of 100,000 signatures of registered voters who want to recall Davis -- the first threshold to qualify the measure by the Sept. 2 deadline for a statewide election.
"No one thought we would get this far," Russo gloats. "There have been 31 other recalls of governors tried in the past and no one has gotten this far."
Despite public statements to the contrary, Davis is apparently taking the movement seriously. He has made himself more available publicly in recent weeks, focused on new issues and begun a fund-raising effort -- using his annual golf tournament to raise money just in case it is needed.
A California Poll released last month showed Davis to be the most unpopular governor in state history -- a marked turnaround from only a few years ago when he was considered the most popular. It is a decline prompted by Davis' handling of the energy crisis, as well as the current budget debacle, with the state facing a $35 billion deficit.
"This is something being fueled by disgruntled Republicans who were unable to defeat the governor last year," said Roger Salazar, spokesman for the Gray Davis Committee. "People see this for what it really is: an effort to undo the results of the last election. Their argument that this is a bipartisan effort has proven hollow."
And if it were not for the war in Iraq, Salazar argued, President George W. Bush would also be facing popularity problems.
Russo said hundreds of thousands of people have downloaded the recall petition at www.recallgraydavis.com and he cites the California Poll as showing 46 percent would vote to recall Davis. However, the same poll shows 60 percent opposed to a recall election.
And yet ... Russo said his group could qualify the recall election for the ballot with the relatively small number of signatures required.
"If that happens, it's 'Katie, bar the door," said Rob Stutzman, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, which has endorsed the recall effort even though it has not given any money.
"We can't give any money under the new campaign laws and we are focused more on getting President Bush re-elected and defeating (Democratic Sen.) Barbara Boxer. But we think recalling the governor is an excellent idea."
Russo said he has tried to avoid making it a partisan issue, but the fact is he handles Republican candidates exclusively and most of the public support has come from the GOP.
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, a multimillionaire who ran unsuccessfully for governor in the past and has made no secret of his desire to hold higher office, has said he will help raise money for the recall effort.
As a result, many Democratic Party efforts have focused on Issa and his past.
"We're going against Darrell Issa," said Bob Mulholland, strategist for the Democratic Party. "Every Democrat in the state opposes this recall, but we don't think it's going anywhere. We think this will fall apart."
Russo, however, said the campaign has the same feel as the one involving Proposition 13 in 1978.
"All the pundits, all the professionals said it didn't have a chance," Russo said. "They said it was just two crazy old men, Howard Jarvis and Paul Gann, and it wouldn't go anywhere. Well, it passed and state government hasn't been the same since.
"This has the same grass-roots appeal. I think all the professionals are misjudging this."
Part of the problem is that Russo has not reached out to some traditional GOP donors for help.
For instance, San Fernando Valley car dealer Bert Boeckmann, who is one of the top Republican donors in the state, said he is not convinced the recall drive will succeed.
"I recognize there is tremendous unhappiness over the budget, but it would be difficult for a recall to happen," Boeckmann said, adding he would not comment on whether he supports the drive.
Former Mayor Richard Riordan, frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for governor should a recall occur, also declined to comment, but he has told friends he would prefer to support a candidate such as actor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a recall election rather than run himself.
But there is no shortage of candidates. Among Republicans, Issa and Simon are both frequently mentioned.
Democrats are walking a much narrower line, however, in declaring themselves.
While none want to appear eager to challenge a sitting governor from their party, the opportunity is too great to pass up.
If it does qualify for the ballot, voters would be asked two questions: Do they support a recall of Davis and who would they want to be the next governor.
If the recall succeeds, the candidate with the highest vote would take over as governor.
"It presents an interesting scenario for anyone who would want to be governor," Democratic political consultant Kam Kuwata said. "You've got a winner-take-all election and that person becomes governor immediately.
"The question is can anyone afford to sit on the sidelines and see the election go to someone else."
Speculation among Democrats has been far and wide.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein has been discussed as a candidate who might be able to pre-empt the Democratic field. Other potential candidates include statewide officeholders facing term limits, such as Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi.
While all have issued public denials, political operatives take great delight in reporting how Lockyer left his own wedding reception recently to appear on a national television show about the arrest of murder suspect Scott Peterson.
All of which amuses Russo.
"I've had a lot of meetings with people who want to be briefed but not identified," Russo said.
"It isn't only conservatives who are upset with Gray Davis. It is also liberals, who believe he sold them out. About the only thing the two sides agree on is they don't like Gray Davis. And that helps me."
We all know what would happen if a Republican got put in; the budget fiasco would magically become the new governor's fault.
Leave Davis on the hot seat.
last time they said 60,000,they got the 100,000??? if not true is misleading,people will not sign the petition.
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A lot hinges on party discipline. If the Rs put just one name on the ballot, and all the Ds with aspirations to governorhood jump on, the vote will get split and CA will have a Republican governor for certain. That could conceivably occur even with a single D, since people are waking up to the fact that the Ds are running the state into a fiscal ditch. Having someone in office to veto the crap that's being generated by the legislature would be a far better situation than we have now.
As if there could possibly be something undemocratic about this, as the anti-Davis people follow the legal, democratic process.
This trope is the theme they're rolling out to use if this gets on the ballot. Their attitude: "The people have spoken. Now they should shut the hell up."
HUH?
That's news to me!
Leave Davis on the hot seat while he passes new taxes and fees?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while Workers Comp melts down driving (usually Republican) businesses out of state?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while they deem bolt action rifles as "assault weapons"?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while they pass gay marriage?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while pass legislation demanding "certification" for all school teachers (thus destroying home schooling)?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while they take more land from farmers, ranchers, and timber landowners (driving more Republicans out of State)?
Leave Davis on the hot seat while they pass legislation accepting Mexican ID?
No thank you. The damage they can do is largely irreversible and may prevent conservatives from EVER retaking this state. Better to turn up that heat with a recall effort, even if it fails.
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